Presidential Election 2025

I'd predict it'll be one of the easiest counts in decades - low turnout, with CC taking the majority very quickly.

The consequences of the election are more likely to be in the digestion of what went on at party HQ at FF in particular, there's slightly more excuse for FG as HH was their stand-in candidate, but I still think the campaign was really weak.

In terms of concern about CC being outspoken or going against government policy, the presidency is incredibly limited in what the office holder can actually do or say. Micheal D stretched it to about as far as it could possibly go, and I think probably got a way with a lot more than some people would on the basis that he's extremely popular and well liked.

If CC were to start taking extremely vocal positions on government policy issues, I think you'd just see a constitutional crisis emerge. I honestly think she's unlikely to go down that route. She's a long-standing political actor who's also got a lot of legal background and she knows fine well what the limits of the role are and how to use it to shape discussion rather than sparring with the government or getting herself into huge messes with international relations. I think some of that fear is most likely very unfounded.

If anything she's about to walk into a situation where she'll be in high office, but extremely limited by the bounds of that office - it's all about using soft power, diplomacy and subtly.

Yeah, you'll have various establishment right wing types more so in the UK getting all upset about it, but sure they're enraged by even the Irish centre right most of the time as we're far too woke and peacenik for them. I mean, they're literally upset by FF and FG positions on neutrality for example.

The benefit of PR-STV is you don't need to think about it and shouldn't have to worry about tactical voting. Just rank them in your preference and move on.

You could get a constitutional crisis if hypothetical President CC refused to perform one of her constitutional duties, i.e. let's say she refused to sign a bill because it was repugnant to her personally, rather than repugnant to the constitution as decided by referral to the Supreme Court. But there's nothing in her background that would suggest she'd be likely to do that, quite the opposite.

You're not getting a constitutional crisis because a President expresses opinions, there's nothing unconstitutional about that.

Just back from casting my invalid ballot. Done in a way that is obvious to the people sorting/counting the ballots.

Saw someone post a photo of theirs up on Twitter, a big X opposite each candidates name and 'THIS IS A SPOILED VOTE' written along the bottom...

I can think of more creative ways to do it

Michael D flew very close to the line on this, and got a lot of leeway. The president's independence is extremely limited by the constitution and by convention. The consequences of the president deciding to go off running some kind of parallel policy platform that contradicted the government would lead to a constitutional crisis very rapidly. I don't really see this is a risk - she knows the job spec very well and where the limits are.

When you actually look at the limits, it actually just makes you wonder what the hell people were up to in the campaigns - half the non-runners were talking like it was an executive presidency and even the way the debates are conducted here often strays way way off what the job's actually about - I know they want to explore the candidate's attitudes and personality and so on, but some of it's ridiculous and gets into the nitty gritty of government policy. They need to be asking questions about how the candidates would actually perform in the office they're running for - which is a very unusual position. I'd like to know for example how they'd use the soft power they'd have access to - how they'd perform in diplomacy, what kind of big vision ideas they have, and I got none of that really from the discussion over the last few weeks. It's not the candidates' fault a lot of the time either, rather the media discussion seems to fail to grasp what the presidency actually is a lot of the time too.

• 13.7.1°: The President may, after consulting the Council of State, communicate with the Houses of the Oireachtas by message or address on any matter of national or public importance.
• 13.7.2°: The President may, after consulting the Council of State, address a message to the Nation at any time on any such matter.
• 13.7.3°: Every such message or address must, however, have received the approval of the Government.
• 13.7.9° The powers and functions conferred on the President by this Constitution shall be exercisable and performable by him only on the advice of the Government, save where it is provided by this Constitution that he shall act in his absolute discretion or after consultation with or in relation to the Council of State, or on the advice or nomination of, or on receipt of any other communication from, any other person or body.
• 13.7.11° No power or function conferred on the President by law shall be exercisable or performable by him save only on the advice of the Government.

It is also established, through precedent and convention that's been stretched here and there but never completely overridden.

Also the composition of the council of state is very HEAVILY government biased:

Ex officio members are those who sit automatically by virtue of their current office: the Taoiseach, the Tánaiste, the Ceann Comhairle, the Cathaoirleach of the Dáil, the Chief Justice, the President of the Court of Appeal, the President of the High Court, and the Attorney General. Former office-holders: former Presidents of Ireland, former Taoisigh, former Chief Justices, former Presidents of the Court of Appeal, and former Presidents of the High Court.

The President may appoint up to seven additional members of their own choosing, who serve until the President’s term ends, unless they resign or are removed.

And remember, don't forget to tell everyone what you did!

It's like drawing a creative picture on your own toilet wall. Few will see it. Nobody will care.

Where's the evidence 'people are scared?

Even in defeat the spin continues....some of the posts today from the CC haters are a joy to behold...

I went to cast my vote very unenthusiastically.

When I picked up the pencil, I couldn't bring myself to give either a number 1, so I drew a big X through all 3.

Spoiled my vote for the first time.