Presidential Election 2025

Only because Sinn Fein couldn't even muster up a candidate.

The case is Sinn Fein couldn't find a candidate. No one in their ranks was popular enough.

It wasn't a good look for a party that says its ready for government.

TBH, looking at Sinn Fein i see numerous candidates of real calibre. The question for me was whether or not to waste MLmcD or O Broin, or any of the others on a race to the Aras. Thats my view anyway. Id rather see MLmcD as Taoiseach, and O Broin as Minister for housing. Id rather have that left alligned coalition in government, with Lab and the Soc Dems

I think in retrospect it was a mistake to back Connolly, and perhaps for some of the other Lefty parties too. I would like to have seen more candidates, and perhaps another more moderate left winger as a nomination.

But we are where we are. Iv seen someone saying that we are doing a postmortem ahead of time; I think we more or less are doing so, because barring a total disaster within the CC camp, with 6 days to go i believe the result is clear.

I saw the general polls and it is more or less as expected. Sinn Fein are up, FF and FG are down. Labour is up by 2 points, which is good. But the fact that the Social Democrats are down is annoying, to me at least. I could theorize that individual Connolly gene-pool independents are up, within their specific constituencies, which for me is a bit worrying. Dont get me wrong, i would rather see the support go to such candidates, as opposed to FFG. But i feel the left need vote management, and we have seen this demonstrated numerous times in Ireland and elsewhere. UK Labour lost some seats to Gaza Protest candidates in their last general election. In some cases the protest candidates took the seat, but in other cases they simply split the left wing vote, handing easy wins to the Torys. Yes, its true that the FPTP system across the water is different to our transfer system. But we need effective vote-management on the left in ireland, if we want an alternative to FFG domination. Having too much choice between Lab, SocDem, SF, PbP, and independents on the left, will invariably lead to early eliminations. Just have to see where the Connolly alligned groups move as we approach more important election cycles down the road.

The presidential election fiasco is damaging FF in todays poll. They are on 17%, while SF is up 5% to 27%. FG are around 18%. Aontú are on 3%. I didnt hear this part of the radio programme clearly, but they said either FF or Michael Martin's rating was down 11%.

Those who believe this means a left led government though should note that Independents (excluding Independent Ireland which is a political party on 2% in the polls) are on 17%. Independents tend not to align with the Left, especially being more rural.

FF have not run a candidate in a presidential campaign since 1997 (Mary McAleese was re elected by no other candidates getting on the ballot in 2004) and I think part of it is being out of practice.

Those who believe this means a left led government

I don't want my point misconstrued.

I don't say it 'means a Left led government', I mean a left alliance can offer a real challenge to the status quo. If it stays together it can further change the dynamic that SF's surge began.

Personally I don't know anyone who makes the link between SF and Connolly.

Yea id like another poll. Interesting to see is there any changes in Gavin, and undecideds - unlikely to make a serious difference but still.

It's a bit complicated though, because 51% disagree that Martin should resign. That suggests to me that eventually some of the 11% will return before the next election. He has been there for 14 years though. The 2011 meltdown removed many potential rivals so the field was clear for him.

The Irish Times Ipsos-B&A poll uses face to face polling. That's generally considered more accurate. Ireland Sindo/Ireland Thinks and SBP/RedC polls use panel based polling methodology. The last RedC poll was essentially two polls in one because its sampling period covered Gavin dropping out. A Sindo poll would resemble an SBP poll. You can check the Next Irish General Election page on Wikipedia to see how the panel based polls resemble each other. During the Covid lockdowns, B&A reverted to a panel based methodology and all three polls (B&A was polling for the Sunday Times) went into synch. When B&A switched back to f2f after the lockdowns, its results differed.

It gets back to the things going wrong simultaneously for FFG. McGuinness dropped out. Gavin dropped out. SF backed Connolly. The implications of SF backing Connolly seemed to have been ignored in the media coverage. The reason it is significant is because it created a combined Left and amplified Connolly's momentum. Without SF, Connolly would probably have plateaued around 17% (combined SocDem/PBP/Lab support).

Kelleher is a career politician and would have been much better than Gavin. He would also probably have been much better than Humphreys as he is a good media performer. SF probably did the right thing in waiting to make its decision in September. FFG wanted SF to run MLMcD as its candidate and that would have been a mistake as she is one of its best Dail performers and a very good campaigner. FFG would have had an easier time in the Dail without her. Given that FF is the larger party in the Dail, FF voters backing Kelleher would probably have put him ahead of Humphreys and he might have won on transfers from Humphreys. It could have been a very different election only for Martin's ego.

Facilitating a left alliance might benefit SF, and the left in general, and that is a bigger prize for SF.

As you say, given the choice between Mary Lou as Taoiseach or as President, I think SF, and probably ML herself rightly choose the Taoiseach position. And a real left alliance, working together in the election might result in a real left government, the first in out history.

Is this confirmed!

Has to be a first really - i find it a bit shocking actually, especially there being no more polls between now and election day

Enoch burke was in Limerick today to interrupt Catherine Connolly at a Palestine rally. All he needs to do now is endorse Heather and connolly can pick the keys up