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Presidential Election 2025

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 367 ✭✭Bocadilloo


    CC has both virgin and RTE interviews complete now. HH doesn't have her virgin media interview until next Monday, four days before the vote. Does CC have any other appearance scheduled for next week? Seems a bit unbalanced if both candidates are not on during the final week.



  • Administrators Posts: 56,219 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    The only saving grace for Humphreys with these numbers is that Connolly is almost certainly at her absolute peak numbers, while Humphreys is absolutely under-performing, and so she likely has more room to grow her numbers than Connolly by courting the undecideds.

    But I'm not sure it'll be enough.

    Apathy in the centre and opposition to the candidates on the right is going to hand this to Connolly. I predict very low turnout.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 31,353 CMod ✭✭✭✭johnny_ultimate


    Given there was always going to be a left-wing candidate since the left had enough Oireachtas representation to guarantee one (even without SF), I'm interested in who those on the anti-Connolly left would've liked to see on the ballot as an alternative to Connolly?

    Personally, I think the fact that she's an independent (currently) unaligned with any of the parties is probably her biggest strength in the public's eyes - I think anyone aligned with any of the left or centre-left parties would've struggled in that sense. Connolly has a mix of everyday likeability and anti-establishment tendencies which I think are pretty appealing to enough of a base to push her over the line (potentially comfortably, if the polls are accurate).

    Someone younger and popular like Holly Cairns could've had momentum, but she's much better placed in frontline politics IMO. A Labour or Green member would've probably been too tarred by their association with past governments, and probably would've risked a SF candidate entering too. I'm genuinely struggling to think of anyone else beyond perhaps Frances Black.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 32,765 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I suspect she was just trying to be more aggressive but yeah it probably wasn't the best idea. I wouldn't agree that the courts have already ruled on it though - the criminal bar is far far higher than needed to defend a defamation claim. The criminal standard needed her, beyond a reasonable doubt, to be trapped with no means of egress. Civilly defending the claim she was trapped/locked in her car would require nowhere near that level of proof



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,466 ✭✭✭almostover


    It may actually be a positive for her, Paul Murphy isn't exactly very popular in most parts of the country. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

    But I do concede that it's not something that HH will want to have to deal with this week. But its interesting to see how the electorate will react to this. It could back fire and be perceived as a political stunt by Murphy and the left.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,428 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    They were raising an issue that nobody is even interested in. A lot of the 'outrage' about the vetting issue seemed performative and insincere - not even realising that the viewers and listeners mostly didn't give a toss about it and were probably rolling their eyes to heaven every time it was raised.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,856 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Well you are entitled to your opinion.

    I could say the same thing about your position @FrancieBrady , with you and many other Connolly supporters highlighting a non-existant 'smear campaign', directed against CC.

    I would love to debate you and others about this 'smear', which seems to be living rent free in your heads, and lacks corporeal form. What I have seen, without doubt, is politicians, and portions of the media, holding a torch up to Connolly on the many contentious views she has. All of which are REAL, and worthy of examination. The fact it hasnt landed with the electorate is fine, I hand that to you. I concede, the electorate has not graded these fiascos and positions as being important points of consideration.

    But they are real issues and controversies. They havent been embellished, they are factual. Connolly has a shockingly extreme foreign policy view of the EU, our European Allies, the war in Ukraine, 'western imperialism', and the United States. And it was also correct to question her judgement RE the Eirigi fiasco, and how she handled it.

    A More Important point as we move forward

    As a lefty, my consolation prize is that a possible Left Wing surge may occur, which will carry on toward the General, Local and European Elections. Which were always far more important to me. Policy will be at stake in these elections, and I want to see Left Wing parties triumph toward breaking the FFG Duopoly. But I remain very worried that the left will continue to allow their activist fringe, to be the tail wagging the dog. In proper parliamentary elections, there will be more organized and credible opposition, compared to this 2 candidate race. And in those situations I will be very concerned by Connolly adjacent Independents, courting controversy and damaging the chances for the left as a whole. I would also be really worried if a Left Wing Coalition were to end up dependent on the votes of a few 'principled' independent TDs from the Connolly gene pool. I view this type of politician as being unstable, and likely to rebel against their coalition partners. I could see situations where such Independents would walk, collapsing a left wing government, for the sake of 'principle'; thereby handing back power to FFG.

    On this last point, i genuinely ask you for your position. And i also ask if you acknowledge these risks? This election is totally odd, @FrancieBrady . I honestly see us, along with other CC supporters on this thread, as being more naturally alligned. At least i hope that is the case when it comes to more crucial elections. I do worry though, that Connolly's radical left wing attitudes are infectious to the left vote as a whole. And that could be very damaging.

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,468 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    A case of reading the room.

    Very quickly RTE knew it needed to distance itself, and the overwhelming comment that we can see (online) was that she would be in legal trouble for those comments.

    And so she is.
    The public are no doubt saying, 'told you so'.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,623 ✭✭✭jmcc


    That will cheer up some people who were looking for proof. It is like FG has no adults running its campaign. She simply should not have said it and not repeated it. RTE management will probably be breathing sighs of relief that RTE is not liable.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,856 ✭✭✭liamtech


    @MFPM i just replied to @FrancieBrady above, and actually covered quite a bit of ground in that post. Id ask you to perhaps have a read of that response, which is quoted below.

    I remain content with my position on this Presidential election, while acknowledging that as a Life Long Lefty, its a strange position to be in. I remain a left winger, but I am vocal in my warnings to you and others, that we need to avoid embracing Connolly gene pool independents. Radical anti establishment left wing views will lead to instability on the left more broadly, and i worry about how we can actually break the FFG Duopoly and achieve an alternative government

    Its all in the response quoted below, and i welcome discussion on it.

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,468 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    As a lefty, my consolation prize is that a possible Left Wing surge may occur, which will carry on toward the General, Local and European Elections. Which were always far more important to me.

    Policy will be at stake in these elections, and I want to see Left Wing parties triumph toward breaking the FFG Duopoly. But I remain very worried that the left will continue to allow their activist fringe, to be the tail wagging the dog.

    In proper parliamentary elections, there will be more organized and credible opposition, compared to this 2 candidate race. And in those situations I will be very concerned by Connolly adjacent Independents, courting controversy and damaging the chances for the left as a whole.

    I would also be really worried if a Left Wing Coalition were to end up dependent on the votes of a few 'principled' independent TDs from the Connolly gene pool. I view this type of politician as being unstable, and likely to rebel against their coalition partners. I could see situations where such Independents would walk, collapsing a left wing government, for the sake of 'principle'; thereby handing back power to FFG.

    What you are looking for is the left wing to become more like FF FG.
    They SHOULD NEVER do that.
    FF FG have lost distinction and no longer stand for anything but a cling to power.

    To be Left wing is to be 'activist' and they should continue to plough that furrow.
    What I hope they have discovered, and Connolly could be the vanguard in this, as she has voiced it, is that a Left Alliance can function on the understanding that 'core values' is what is important. Disagreement on various issues is ok, as long as the 'core' holds.
    TBH and you might need to re-evaluate, you remind me of someone who likes to think they are Left wing (wears the Che T-shirt etc) but when it comes to giving the left your vote, there is always a reason why you don't. I ahve grown up with people like that. They have changed but won't confront it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,777 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Funny that many claimed CC would be a liability as president and would put her foot in it - and yet its HH who has attracted a defamation suit against her and she's only campaigning for the job!

    Imagine what blunders she could come up with in Aras an Uachtaran



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,579 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    In fairness it was an “issue” to be raised in the public interest - knowing the background as to why she recruited this individual is a natural question given the court case and sentencing and nature of the crime - it’s not like she was a reformed shop lifter or burglar - it’s blooming serious.
    I don’t think we’ll ever know the true reason she recruited her- maybe it was a leap of faith - maybe it was something else - who knows



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,468 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    If polling is anything to go by, it's not seen as serious at all.

    I did say they were risking overdoing the negativity approach, the electorate are not stupid.
    Connolly sat back, mostly did not engage in challenging or dissing Humphreys and in her exasperation/bad advice Humphreys went for a smear and ended up getting herself into a court to defend a defamation case unless she settles it.
    Self inflicted damage and p*** poor campaign management.



  • Administrators Posts: 56,219 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    You can't really draw this conclusion.

    What is clear is that people who will vote for Connolly are happy to vote for her no matter what she has said or done. They are motivated to turn out and vote and don't care about her problems.

    The issue for Humphreys is that she hasn't done a good enough job appealing to everyone else.

    The undecided vote right now I would absolutely bet is voters who do not want to vote Connolly (because of issues around her judgement, her stance on Ukraine, her Daly/Wallace links etc) but haven't seen enough yet from Humphreys to motivate them to vote at all.

    Connolly has appealed to her base, Humphreys hasn't. If Connolly wins this it will be due to apathy in the centre and low turnout.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,449 ✭✭✭Dr Robert


    Loose lips from HH. Not great from a seasoned politician.

    Murphy gets some limelight which he'll enjoy of course.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,468 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    They are motivated to turn out and vote and don't care about her problems.

    The FG campaign have simply failed to convince they are 'problems'.

    Perhaps parsing and actually spinning falsely what she is about was a wrongheaded tactic to begin with. Don't treat the electorate like fools in other words.
    Send your candidate out to debate what she actually stands for.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,856 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Well that is all rather frightening tbh. Point of fact, i have never worn a 'Che T-shirt'

    In my time as a voter, i have voted for Labour, Social Democrats, Sinn Fein, and have distributed further preferences toward independent Left Wing candidates. As things have progressed, I began to view it as counter productive to vote for independents, and view their candidacy as diluting the Left Wing vote so as to grant seats to FFG

    I dont view being activist as being left wing. Certainly if we are talking about issues such as the budget, homelessness, marriage equality et al - i will be right there with you. In the protest, and making just as much noise.

    But when it comes to elections, i give my top preferences to the candidates who can more likely take seats away from FFG. I tend to try and vote tactically, giving my first preference to the weaker candidates, in order to keep them in the running as long as possible.

    I think there is a serious division between us. Hypothetically, as follows - lets say its a 4 seater for arguments sake

    • Labour
    • Sinn Fein
    • Sinn Fein
    • Soc Dem
    • Independent Left Wing Candidate with history of Protesting issues such as GAZA and EU Militarization
    • Independent Left Wing Candidate tackling local issues
    • Fianna Fail
    • Fianna Fail
    • Greens
    • Fine Gael
    • Fine Gael
    • People before Profit
    • Middle of the road independent running for local Parish Pump issues

    In the above hypothetical constituency, my prefered outcome would be for SF, Labour, and the Soc dem to triumph and take all four seats, as unlikely as that may be. Who i give my 1, 2, 3 and 4 preferences to - depends on the polls, and who i think could benefit more from a higher preference. In terms of further preferences, maybe PbP gets one, if i think they look like a contender. But a lot would depend on the polls.

    I wouldnt vote for anyone else, certainly not for FF or FG - i wont vote green because I dont want them to be an option as junior partner for either FF or FG. I wont vote for the protest candidate. Not because i dont agree with their stances, rather that I dont think their taking of a seat will benefit the goal of breaking the FFG duopoly.

    Point of fact, i dont want Connolly to be the Vanguard of anything. I want the left to win elections, and take over government for at least a few terms. And when they eventually lose an election, i want them to sit, united if possible, on the opposition benches, as a credible alternative to a likely FFG incumbent coalition. I dont believe any of this is possible with Connolly Genepool independents, or an activist class of lefties who care less about power, and more about protest.

    Interested to hear your response, and who you would vote for, if you care to tell me.

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,468 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Point of fact, i dont want Connolly to be the Vanguard of anything. 

    The only way a Left Alliance holds is if they adopt the Connolly suggestion - a belief in 'core values' the 'activists' included in that core.
    You start getting Alan Kellyish huffy about that and the whole thing falls apart from the core outwards.





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,715 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Unless FG feared losing their MEP seat in the by election if Kelly was elected president?

    I'm fairly sure it's a co-option, not a by-election, for the European Parliament although FG may have been worried about losing his seat the next European election

    She did yes, the first time she was corrected by the presenter and the second time as the presenter was repeating the correction she interrupted with a snide "well he [Murphy] didn't let her [Burton] out of it chuckle chuckle"

    I knew that would come back to bite her in the rear end and it wouldn't surprise me if she also withdraws from the race now as a result



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,205 ✭✭✭Neamhshuntasach


    Well I was 100% joking. The other chap, was not however. I've no idea how they have come to that conclusion beyond something ridiculous like what I said.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭Caquas


    When I started this thread back in January, I said there would be many twists on the road to the Áras but I had no inkling of the chaos that has ensued.

    Back in those days, Ivana Bacik hoped Labour could rally the "centre-left" for a candidate with broad appeal. Instead, Labour was railroaded into backing their far-left nightmare - Catherine Connolly - to the disgust of the party's old guard. And SF were left with little choice but to back Connolly because Mary-Lou refused to run.

    FG thought they had a winner in Máiread but she vanished and, rather than back Seán Kelly, they hauled exhausted Heather back out of retirement and have her pretend she wasn't in the Cabinet for the past decade. Micheál also thought he found a winner in Jim but that fiasco has damaged Micheál's leadership permanently.

    The upshot is that we (or at least the ~40% who will cast a valid vote) are about to elect an extremist who will spend the next 14 years torturing the Government on all its failings but especially on matters of foreign policy while exercising her powers and prerogatives only and precisely in accordance with the advice of the Government. Don't call it hypocrisy, it's cognitive dissonance on a constitutional scale! And she'll be demanding "accountability" from all her opponents while occupying the only Office which is answerable to no one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,856 ✭✭✭liamtech


    if the core values are

    • Caring more about Protesting against Israel over Gaza, then they do about getting into Government
    • Blaming 'the west' for the crimes of Autocratic states in the east
    • Attacking the EU and European Allies for behaving pragmatically, and shoring up their defenses

    I cant support any of the above.

    You can accuse me of becoming 'Alan Kellyish' if you want. But by your logic, you will end up with a few dozen Connolly adjacent independents, sitting next to a shrunken Left Wing group of parties - said indos, can howl at the moon for all to hear and see

    While FFG remain in power, on the government benches, incentivising big business, stripping social supports, and giving tax breaks to billionaires.

    But you can sit confidently at home, holding your principles tightly. And knowing that you did the right thing!

    Well done!

    BTW if you want to actually engage in the debate; could we actually discuss whether you could ever vote for Left Wing Parties that could actually get INTO GOVERNMENT??? Maybe look at the hypthetical constituency that i outlined, where would your votes go?

    or are you really saying that you would be delighted with the scenario above

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Administrators Posts: 56,219 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    As you say, Humphreys has done a terrible job selling herself.

    Yet, there is a huge number of undecideds. So ask yourself Francie, if Humpreys campaign has been as terrible as you make out, why is there still such a large number of voters unconvinced about Connolly, if as you suggest, there are no problems with her at all?

    I think the reality is FG have done a good job highlighting Connolly's issues, but that has to be backed up with good selling of your own candidate and they haven't done great here yet so far.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,856 ✭✭✭liamtech


    i thought so - i wasnt 100% sure, but i replied anyway! An who knows maybe ireland can top the group! COYBIG!!!!!!

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,652 ✭✭✭RoTelly


    Sincerely the last presidential election had the worst turn out of all, to maintain a 44% turnout isn't good.

    56% turnout in 2011, 47% in 1997, 64% in 1990, 62% 4th, 64% 3rd, 58% 2nd, 63% First presidential election.

    1997 is an outlier in terms of turn out.

    But to have a poll suggest that 12% of voters won't turn up? not even the highest turnouts in 1990 & 1959 had a turnout over 65%.

    The poll should had further questions such as

    On a scale of 1 to 5 : -

    How interested are you in the election?

    How interested are you in the campaign?

    How motivated are you to go out and vote?

    ______

    In the end they were just greedy, they all knew one another and knew what to expect more money for no return, it was a secure cash flow, but in fairness they looked for what they wanted and fair dues to them for that, and wouldn't you be doing the same!

    Just one more thing .... when did they return that car

    Yesterday



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    If the issue was being raised in the public interest, it would have been raised seven years ago.



  • Administrators Posts: 56,219 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Was she running for President 7 years ago?

    This is such a nonsense point.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 79,468 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I haven't suggested there are no problems, I am suggesting the problems identified are not as big with the voters as has been suggested or adamantly insisted on, depending on who's posts you read here.

    The inability to see what was not connecting with the audience is down to Humphreys campaign team who seem to be stuck and cannot change direction. And Humphreys really should have known better than to get herself embroiled in a defamation suit.





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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,579 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    I think it was the IT today saying “Gavin” votes would be distributed around 50:50 CC/HH



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