Presidential Election 2025

That's a killer ending, the host having to correct one of HH's attempted smears. She could be dealing with that one for a number of days.
And the impression Yates was bang on about what is happening gets consolidated.

We need better candiates.

Once again, a poster who apparently speaks for everyone…'we' have the candidates who put themselves forward for election, that's how it works…

🎶🎶Sitting on the sofa on a sunday afternoon, listening to the candidates debate... Everyway we look it it we lose 🎶🎶😊

Red c poll suggesting younger people supporting the older candidate (CC) and older people supporting the younger candidate (HH). Bizarre.

Yet more evidence that the FFG stranglehold on the country will continue to die out with time.

Her brand of politics, while much more popular than before 2011, still loses nationally at GE time. I hope if she wins, the government wont allow it to influence policies like support for Ukraine, increasing our tiny defence budget.

I think the poll overlapping Gavin's withdrawal is probably boosting the don't knows - Gavin supporters polled after the withdrawal have a good chance of being Don't knows - they won't have had time to make their mind up.

It would seem that many Gavin voters are going to vote for him anyway - I'd see that being somewhere in the region of 10-12%. I think the majority of these will not continue on to a second preference. I'm not convinced that Connolly will be the main beneficiary of Gavins seconds.

My guess is that those who have plumped for Connolly will not shift. As you point out many of the 'Don't knows' are extremely unlikely to vote. Humphreys only chance is to whip up hatred and fear against Connolly. She's trying it in the debate and, I think, failing. Jennifer Carroll MacNeill tried this and simply ended up looking foolish.

Unless something changes I find it difficult to see Connolly losing. I don't think it's impossible but she's too smart to allow the muck to stick and has shown remarkable calm in the face of attack. She doesn't have the spikiness of Michael D Higgins but she is very definitely in his mould and his presidency was viewed as highly successful and representative of the wishes of the Irish people. It also resonated abroad - I heard praise from so many people who might not have shared his political views but respected that he was well able to stand up for his country and it's role in the world. He annoyed the hell out of the right and I hope that Catherine Connolly will do the same.

so your first assumption is that 100% of JG votes will transfer to HH?

How likely is that?

In all the elections you’ve worked on, have you ever seen 100% vote transfer?

The last poll of JG second preferences went 60% HH and 25% CC

That leaves a big hole in your calculation

As somebody else has said, just giving HH all of Gavin's vote tells me that is more than likely to be the over excited exuberance of leaflet distributor's than that of serious analysts.

Humphreys already trending on Twitter.

If FG internal polling really put HH infront 60:40 then they would not be resorting to a smear campaign against CC.

It smacks of desperation this pivot the Heather campaign has taken, definitely not something you do if already polling well in front.

You’re a rare breed in demand right now from both sides- would you consider sitting this one out or will you definitely vote on the day?

Heather answered my previous question in that debate. She didn’t condemn Ivan’s comments because she was preparing to carry out exactly what he suggested. Attack attack attack. Classic FFG plan. Desperate stuff.

Not 'any' attack. There are legitimate attacks and smears.
HH using Paul Murphy is an attempt at a 'smear'.

It may well cost her more than the election too as it is a clear libel, repeated, even though the host tried to correct her.

And FG have only themselves to blame if those legitimate attacks are seen as smears by some too.