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Immigration and Ireland - MEGATHREAD *Mod Note Added 02/09/25*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,779 ✭✭✭✭Geuze




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,779 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Why didn't the Tibetan monk claim asylum in the many countries he passed through to get here?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,086 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Have you got a source for all that data? "A small amount have been deported." Number? Source?

    "160 to 180k." Again, source?

    Just looking for data, not interpretations, would rather make my own.



  • Posts: 3,065 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    That very high levels of immigration are not linked to a housing shortage is the most bizarre economic argument I have ever come across.

    Of course you can still argue that very high immigration is a good thing, but not acknowledging it makes housing less easily available actually weakens your argument, because it shows you are denying reality.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 22,803 ✭✭✭✭Ash.J.Williams


    Its a hangup from the 80s unemployment situation, we are great at attracting jobs, but we dont know how to slow it down, we have over employment and require immigration to fill these jobs but have not been investing in infrastructure



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,070 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    Who is saying that there is no link? The argument seems to more so be that the effect of reducing migration would not have the dramatic effect on demand (or prices) that is often touted. An estimated 20% of the construction workforce are migrants to start with and much construction development is based on the economics of anticipated future demand. To the extent that you successfully introduce policies that would reduce migration to the kind of levels that would have a material impact on demand for housing, there is also likely to be a dip in supply.

    The problem is that people view the reduction of demand (from migrants) in a vacuum, and seem to presume that a reduction in demand would have no affect on supply.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,804 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    https://assets.gov.ie/static/documents/b3188353/IPAS_Weekly_Report_week_ending_05-10-2025_.pdf

    Latest weekly update. 271 arrivals. Ticking up. 32+ from safe countries (19 Georgia, 13 Albania)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,854 ✭✭✭Stephen_Maturin


    But did you yourself not say only last week on reducing housing demand by reducing migration “Well, i find it hard to believe that you wouldn't then have a situation where a whole strata of Irish people previously inhibited from buying suddenly step in to buy — hence new demand.” ?

    That would be a good thing for Irish people no, to be able to secure housing in their own country? They currently can’t because of excess demand (largely by high migration) driving up prices

    What is a problem is the viewing of solutions in a vacuum, as being only black or white all or nothing. You do yourself in this very comment.

    Have you considered that we continue to allow the migrant construction workers whilst also reducing the non EU student visas, delivery drivers, bogus asylum seekers etc?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 794 ✭✭✭Phat Cat


    So the chartered flights to deport illegal individuals back to Georgia was a waste of time and tax payers money? 

    The first flight in late February 2025 removed 32 people, followed by a second flight in May 2025 that removed 39 people. The cost for a single chartered flight to deport people to Georgia was €102,476 in February 2025. More recent reports indicate that the total cost of deportation flights, including a one-way flight to Georgia in May 2025, has reached over €1 million for the year



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,070 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    I have already explained this — I said my post about house prices falling materially was based on what right-light leaning commentary hypothesises. I was applying the assumption that those right leaning commentators are correct in saying that reducing migration would have a materially downward effect on demand and, with it, house prices and the need to keep building.

    To your last paragraph — sure — we could reduce the numbers of bogus asylum seekers, delivery drivers etc etc. But aren't we talking about limiting immigration to the extent that it would have an impact on housing demand and prices — and an impact so significant it would make housing readily available and affordable for Ireland-born people? You're going to need to go way beyond bogus asylum seekers and delivery drivers if you want to make that kind of dent.

    To do that, you actually have to reduce migration across the entire board (while assuming supply will absolutely keep up and developers won't react to those policies by simply building less). That's because most migrants in this country are honest workers — in construction, healthcare, hospitality, tech, pharma etc. The migrants who are even able to complete with Irish workers for buying homes (a minority of migrants) will almost invariably be working contributing migrants in key economic sectors.

    So again, it's not to say there isn't a benefit in reducing the numbers of bogus asylum seekers or other forms of migration. You just need to be realistic about what policy you actually want and what you expect it to achieve.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,854 ✭✭✭Stephen_Maturin


    I will firstly have to push back on the suggestion that this is a right wing idea - prominent moderate economists such as Dan O’Brien, David McWilliams etc have made this same point. Not to mention we can see the success archived in this area in Denmark under the leadership of their left wing government and policies. Simple application of the laws of supply and demand is not right wing. So let’s park any invocations of the right wing bogeyman there please.

    I’m a believer of don’t let perfect be the enemy of good - if we can reduce numbers of non essential non EU people, bogus asylum seekers then that will be a good starting point in reducing non essential demand and pressure on services

    Finally in terms of competition for that small supply once again it is not all or nothing. It’s not either they can buy houses on arrival or be expelled. There are a whole host of measures available to us that can moderate the issues that come with increasing numbers.
    Lots of other countries, many left wing led I might add, have measures such as higher taxes on house purchases for non EU non citizens, or minimum residency requirements before you are eligible to purchase property etc etc etc i.e. we can restrict migrants demand for buying properties without necessarily going as far as blocking them from the country



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,594 ✭✭✭enricoh


    I seen an extra 1.6 billion in the budget for refugee accommodation. what is this refugee industry costing per year anyone knows. There can't be any change out of 10 billion.

    If anyone has any idea of how to fund this as the corporation tax golden goose stops laying please send your ideas to the department of finance!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,779 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    The source for the asylum applicants is

    https://x.com/jlpobrien

    I must download the data myself.

    The very low numbers deported are widely publicised.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,086 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    Would this chart from that author's substack show asylum applicants in the 160-180k range over the 20 year period mentioned? Because it seems, well, maybe a few K per year are, presumably, getting PPSN's in the early '00's, but that number drops precipitously, and one assumes by now those applicants are citizens, or have left.

    image.png

    Anyway, it doesn't seem like asylum applicants are a dominant part of the immigrant population. From 2009-2007 just hundreds a year at best.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,854 ✭✭✭Stephen_Maturin


    Think the main issue where IPAS is concerned is that we have to put these people up for months and provide everything else at a cost of over 100K per head and in the end the majority of them aren’t even genuine i.e. it’s largely a massive waste of public funds that should be diverted to things that actually benefit the public



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,779 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    I am using an earlier chart.

    The man is so prolific at posting data, I can't find the original chart!!!

    Yes, correct, the 160k-180k bogus AS are not the majority of immigrants.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,302 ✭✭✭Patrick2010


    Put them up for years not months given it can take 18 months for a case to be heard and then countless appeals



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,086 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    I guess it depends on where you're getting data from, but this article from May shows it at 1.2bn euros in 2025, which is a very high number, though a lower average than you're quoting ('rising to 36,000 per year.')

    As an aside, Aontu banging on about this rubs the cockles of my heart as they're sooooo pro-religion and yet, screw dem immigrants!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,070 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    Well, far from invoking right wing bogeymen — I would fall into the left-leaning centrist side of things and I believe immigration should be reduced. Where I differ from others on here is the extent to which I believe it to be the actual key issue at the heart of socioeconomic or cultural problems or the extent to which reducing migration actually materially improves life in Ireland. It's all well and good saying "don't let perfect be the enemy of good" — but you have to have an appropriate understanding of the good you are trying to achieve. Cutting the number of bogus asylum seekers is something we should strive to do and it presents benefits, that's undeniable, but one thing it's not going to do is make much of a dent population-wise.

    You also mention cutting the number of "non-essential" people but I am unsure what you mean by this term. Are we only referring to healthcare and construction as being essential, or what else? How are you defining essentialness and how do migrant workers in tech, professional services, hospitality etc figure into that? I know you mentioned delivery drivers but what other groups are you talking about limiting that represent a large enough cohort to actually slow population growth and materially decrease demand and prices?

    As for restricting migrants from buying within 5 years, what would this achieve in Ireland in your view? Do you think it would impact on purchases by investors? It possibly would, but there's an altogether more straightforward way of doing that (ie, just prevent investors for acquiring property to the levels they do now). And why is the focus on Danish policies always focused on migration — they also have supply side measures we could employ . .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,854 ✭✭✭Stephen_Maturin


    Yeah I’d be largely be talking about healthcare and construction in that essential bracket.

    I don’t see how in this space of about 3 years our country has suddenly become no longer viable without migrant retail workers etc. MNCs have been operating here for decades prior so it’s not that necessarily. There’s been a swing of hundreds of thousands of additional people that are apparently all “essential” and I don’t buy it.

    Restricting migrants ability to buy will of course reduce competition for houses for the native population. I don’t know if you’ve been to any house viewings recently but anyone that has can see quite clearly that migrants are buying significant numbers of houses, particularly in new developments.
    I’d be happy to see institutional investors prevented from acquiring the levels of property they currently do.
    And none of this is to the exclusion supply side measures - such measures should be pursued to the utmost. But measures are required on both sides of the equation. The government’s focus has been overwhelmingly on the supply side and they’ve achieved nothing, in fact the housing crisis is even worse.

    You mention you yourself want to see immigration reduced - what measures would you like to see introduced?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,779 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    This is my suggestion to reduce immigration and ease the pressure on accomm:

    (1) process current AS fast, within a week, and remove in daily flights. The aim here is to reduce both the stock and the inbound flow.

    (2) remove 50% of UKR people now, and 50% at end of war

    [allow 5,000 to 10,000 UKR to stay subject to conditions: they must work in new house building for ten years, and they can never claim social assistance]

    The aim of (1) and (2) is to remove 100,000 people from the country

    (3) freeze all study visas for five to ten years - zero new inbound flow

    [this would have serious consequences for many 3rd level HEI]

    (4) no change to work visas, so no impact on healthcare or ICT sectors

    (5) max 1,000 programme refugees per year



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,328 ✭✭✭prunudo


    I see Floods Cross is being set up again as a temporary immigration camp, allegedly for Ukrainians, but sure time will tell. Seems the government can find the money and the urgency to get things done when it suits them in this country.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,870 ✭✭✭rgossip30


    The number changes each year but over the years 80% is a percentage that get to stay .

    Recently 80% fail on first application , 2/3 of asylum seekers come through the UK which has been the case over the years . They are usually visa overstayers ,come by irregular means or have made asylum claims in the UK .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 182 ✭✭BandyMandy


    Strange that there are no ipa's centres in Northern Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,849 ✭✭✭riddles


    Boot out anyone who has not arrived through the formal international protection system. And revoke citizenship and passports from anyone whose returned home for vacation to the place they fled from in terror.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,328 ✭✭✭prunudo


    At some stage, the politicians and the media will have to have a grown up conversation about the direction the country is going. For too long they've chosen to ignore what was plain to see would happen. More focused on crushing dissent and creating division, than admitting there are serious issues coming down the tracks. As with many things currently happening, its hard to navigate the rules on here, but one thing is for sure, what happened yesterday is not good, and further shows the downfall in society.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,731 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    Im curious as to how the immigration staff verify the correct age of AS who say they are under 18.

    Because it looks to me like we just take them at their word.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 893 ✭✭✭Joe 90


    Think of the savings in pensions in half a century or so. They'll probably be sucking on the sour end of a blade of grass before they officially reach state pension age, whatever that may be that far in the future.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,073 ✭✭✭tastyt


    Can anyone put an honest coherent argument together as to how this illegal immigration madness is benefitting the people of Ireland in any way ?

    And before someone chimes in with the usual nonsense of our health service would collapse etc etc , I am not talking about people on work visas


    Just what exactly do the government or the left wing supporters think the thousands of Muslim men ( all men now which is just brushed under the carpet ) living in refugee centres will ever bring to this country ?

    We are importing the very worst and it’s costing us billions , that’s me and you paying for this nonsense . They will stay here and leech for as long as they can , drive our taxes up to pay for their healthcare and retirement because they absolutely won’t be working .

    We have destroyed our country , plain and simple



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 128 ✭✭Thorny Queen


    In my local town, the Ukrainians that have been here since the beginning of the war have been given private accommodation in their own houses and apartments. Moved from the hotels.

    *googles house and apartments to rent in my local town and absolutely nothing comes up.

    This is just beyond unfair to local people.



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