Presidential Election 2025

And I was very clear in saying that 'rehabilitation' required a judgement call. On 'reflection' you make a judgement. Is everyone who applies for a job going to get it, no. Doesn't mean you don't believe in the notion.

There is definitely a growing concern in the media and from online social commentary that the controversial statements she’s made are not commensurate with the office of president 

I'm not seeing this trend. Connolly's most ostensibly controversial statements of the campaign, about Hamas and German rearmanent, were made a couple of weeks ago and the storms seemed to pass after a few days. It just seems to be accepted beyond the 35-40% or whatever that is committed to supporting Humphries that Connolly will say some edgy things as president but then so did Michael D and the sky didn't fall in…

Connolly's supporters are infinitely more vocal - there’s no question about that - so if social media were an indicator of what’s going to happen, it would be a landslide for Connolly. I don’t think HH ever had a “core” support group - she’s “just” a candidate for a political party - but on the day, not only will we see the “vocal” supporters out voting, we’ll also see the “non-vocal” voters for the first time.

CC doesn’t have a unifying brand across the board to make her a landslide president -her left wing supporters appear to love her- but she’s divisive outside of this core group - there’s a lot of middle ground voters feeling disenfranchised with the offering of candidates - but I don’t see many of them heading to CC - and if the negativity around CC in the press coverage continues, I could see them heading for HH to ensure she doesn’t get in

HH should win this hands down given she has the two establishment parties behind her, the media framing against CC we've seen reflects HH is struggling a bit…I always thought HH would win but increasingly I think CC will do it..time will tell. CC will continue to be headline news not because of what she's saying but the way it's being framed, the payment for the trip to Syria in the last few days being one of the more obvious and absurd attempts by the MSM to undermine her. I see Pat Leahy today justifying the focus on CC, in fairness he's nothing if not consistent in his devotion to political centrism.

if the negativity around CC in the press coverage continues, I could see them heading for HH

Again this has been there from day one but it doesn't seem to have damaged Connolly in the polls and I don't see a head of steam building behind it this late in the day unless there is some fresh and devastating controversy in the pipeline

Or are people just waking up now? It’s been a very lacklustre campaign from the start - we’ll see and I’ve no problem being proved wrong - none at all - it may well be the landslide predicted by many - but I’m not sure it will be, that’s all. But right now, I’ve no definitive proof - purely an opinion

I’m off to tend to my lawn

I could infer from that you are in the dog house and need to get out of the house, but I wouldn't necessarily be right.🙃

What is damaging to CC is the blatant sectarianism and possibly actionable comments made by CC supporters on HH's Facebook page on practically every post. PS if you post an image of a snake, an orange, and a rat, you are still calling somebody that whether you write it in English, or Irish, or not.

Nor do I. I think it might be close enough.

If that is the law and that is how it is being enacted then yes, it should not be done.

And the questions still remain, if it was the law and it was being enacted, how did this 'security threat' manage to work there for almost 6 months?

Is that not a fair question to ask in any inquiry into all this?

No it isn't, much. People who get really riled up about that stuff are already HH partisans. Floating voters leaning towards CC will see those comments and think "A minority of her supporters are dicks, so what she can't control that."

But what would that have to do with the role and functions of being President? Going down the hypothetical moral dilemma route seems a somewhat bizarre thing to be questioning her on.

I still believe there is a lack of credibility on both sides, but in particular, from Connolly supporters.

Catherine Connolly is a wonderful communicator, far better than most politicians. She communicates her message well, but this positive is sometimes a dual edged Sword. She has walked herself, and her campaign, into hot water on multiple occasions. The 'rapist/aras' controversy, was a direct result of the 'Eirigi fiasco', with both stories representing unforced errors in my opinion. Now her supporters will refute that, and say that she was 'taken out of context', or that her words were 'spun' to appear more controversial than they were. To that, i would obviously disagree, and i have made my feelings clear. But even to give some benefit here, and accept that there was some spin involved. If a candidates words require a sub campaign to 'clarify after the fact'; If Connolly supporters feel the need to explain, line by line, what she meant, pointing to IN and OUT of context statements? That is a losing battle in most elections. It probably wont be fatal in this case, because this is a ludicrous election. Three candidates, now reduced to two, and her remaining opponent wasnt even the first choice of her party.

Heather Humphreys remains a non-entity in my mind. She could actually benefit from some controversy, because at least it would draw attention to her campaign. At the moment, the most controversial thing about HH's campaign, has been the comments made by Ivan Yates. A person who is, point of fact, not associated with her campaign, despite his previous career as a FG parliamentarian. Being as low key as she is, Humphreys lacks credibility based on the blindingly obvious fact, that she is not her party's first choice. She seems ill-equipped for a national election, and despite having a more tactically astute staff (one assumes), they are struggling to make her voice heard. The 'i love animals' moment demonstrated this; she is a non-entity, squeeky clean, 'no fuss' politician. The few other things which have come up, have been bland in the extreme. She said strange things in cabinet, re drink driving legislation. She refused to engage with the family of a road traffic victim. To her detractors, this may appear huge, but honestly; iv seen more scandal at a parent teacher meeting. Honestly she, and her base need to start making noise; Or its probably over.

Its a poor election with two poor candidates. Connolly's base are more energized, and have begun to believe conspiratorially, that Connolly is being targeted; with her own spoken words and opinions, mostly in context. The Humphreys base, if there is an organized one to speak of, are remaining quiet, and really hoping that HH beats the odds. But its still a poor election, and they really need to 'make a fuss', unlike their actual candidate it seems.

Those are my thoughts at present