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Who Watches the Watchmen (Our Chit Chat Thread)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,632 ✭✭✭Fitz II


    Just to avoid what I think is some confusion here. Clones are rates as A, A++ (AA), A+++ (AAA), and super clones. Usually A and A+ clones are your Sunday market variety, maybe 50-100 euro. It is easy to spot visually A and A++ rated clones. A+++ clones use similar materials, but a basic movement, that is dressed up to look like the real deal, usually costs around 200-400 euro. Could catch you out but anyone in the know and especially if they have a loupe, could spot them. Super Clones are designed to be 1:1 copies, where the movement is copied along with the materials, usually around 800-2000 euro. Identical materials (bar precious metals). You might catch one if you are experienced and have the original sitting beside you also. But these are getting better and better all the time, to the point, as I wrote above, that a time will come in the not-too-distant future where it might be impossible to distinguish it from the real thing.

    A Panerai clone that does not have the same strap mechanism as the original is by definition not a superclone. If you have a clone that you can easily tell is fake then that aint a super clone. So I think that maybe there is some definitional confusion going on. Prime87 if your super clone is that obvious, and you didnt pay a grand for it, I would respectfully suggest you may not have been given what was advertised to you. I was walking around MBK in Bangkok looking at fakes (if you know what that place is, then you know its a mecca for faked goods). While every seller told me these were AAA or noob Superclones, I did not see one super clone. Some of the AAA were fairly close. Superclones it would seem are sold direct and are super expensive. I will avoid posting links but I have little doubt from first hand reports from multiple experienced dealers and the internet that an actual superclone are very very close and getting "better" all the time. Precision manufacturing is getting cheaper and automation of polishing getting better.

    Look at this vid (and all the way through, the lengths the guy goes to is extraordinary). It can still be spotted, but admits that without specialist equipment and a genuine comparator, it would catch out most.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFasnEl2y20



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,129 ✭✭✭Slideways


    Thanks for keeping an eye out.
    I chose one for $1300 and got stung for $250 GST/duties

    So long as it’s not a fake I think it will be similar ball park to that one listed. Appreciated you keeping your eyes peeled though



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 77 ✭✭prime87


    What you are describing does not exist. Also I do not own a clone and never would own one.

    Super Clones are designed to be 1:1 copies, where the movement is copied along with the materials, usually around 800-2000 euro.

    Can you describe to me this business model please. Copying a movement for a total of 2k, what is the return on investment for these guys there? Who in their right mind would buy a clone Panerai for 2k when you can buy a gen used one for 3.5k?

    A Panerai clone that does not have the same strap mechanism as the original is by definition not a superclone.

    These do not exist on same strap mechanism with quick release, you are aware of this?

    Superclones it would seem are sold direct and are super expensive.

    Again, how many sales you would think they would get this way.

    I think you are confusing a clone where extra ~1.5k was spent to add used oem parts.

    Same question arises - who in their right mind would buy that?

    I will avoid posting links but I have little doubt from first hand reports from multiple experienced dealers and the internet that an actual superclone are very very close and getting "better" all the time. Precision manufacturing is getting cheaper and automation of polishing getting better.

    Simply not true, their return on the investment there then doesn't exist.

    And also, I'd like to add, owning expensive watches doesn't necessarily mean that person who bought them had any interest in the actual watch, that they ever spent 2 minutes inspecting how is their quality item better than a cheap watch and one remains totally in the dark what are they buying except a brand name. I don't want to be rude but I would place you in such category if you are writing what you are writing.

    Also in the video you added when he comes to the movement images, it is clear from a mile that a clone is scratched all over the place for starters, that honestly wouldn't bother you? Plus he even says it's "very very poor"
    Have you even watched the video you posted? Especially when he turns the watch upside down part?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 581 ✭✭✭RMDrive


    Now this is how Boards will get more subscribers 😁😁😂😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,632 ✭✭✭Fitz II


    Answer one - Rolex admit that it costs about 2k to produce a non precious watch. The Chinese do it for 500 by leveraging their low cost economy, and cutting corners and sell for double.

    Answer two - I have never seen a panerai super clone - maybe they exist, only using your own example form post #9678, why anyone would buy a clone is beyond me, but your point on a super clone panerai is valid.

    Answer three - who would buy one? You said you had one in post #9682. I respectfully questioned if you did indeed have a superclone. It would appear you do not. No superclones do not use genuine parts. All remanufactured.

    image.png

    Answer four - They make money I am sure, indeed in the video the clone can be spotted but its pretty close. I have seen some sub part finishing genuine one where the service was done by a brute. Pateks I have had had flaws, infact only my old ALS was what I would consider perfect. Still they will only get better and he admits he does not have the best quality fake, its missing the parachrom type spring but better copies have almost exact movement copies. I watched the video, but I think you didnt read my posts. Unlike yourself I don't own a single fake watch, I dislike them for various reasons. However I consider that the technology and know how of the cloners is getting better and better and there will come a time when you wont be able to tell….thats all I said. I have not edited any of my posts beyond correcting typos, and I am not labouring under any illusion that a Rolex is haute horology finished to a standard where exact copies are beyond the realm of believability.

    image.png


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 77 ✭✭prime87


    That was referring to 3rd type of owner scenario - not that it is my actual view.
    Should have written "someone who owns a super clone…" in all fairness.
    I personally wear Casio on the beach.

    And I added in not editted. Bottom line is, anyone thinking a super clone is good as a gen / even remotely close to it, get one and get any cheap Seiko automatic and let me know which do you think is better brand name writing aside. I guarantee you it is a Seiko. Then ask yourself a question do you need anything better than a cheap Seiko, if you do - do not ever buy a clone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,284 ✭✭✭✭OmegaGene


    we might need a referee at this rate

    The internet isn’t for everyone



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 77 ✭✭prime87


    Rolex admit that it costs about 2k to produce a non precious watch. The Chinese do it for 500 by leveraging their low cost economy, and cutting corners and sell for double.

    I am sure Rolex claims that if same tools were used, which they have spent how much money on first?

    Chinese do it for 500 with those same materials on nowhere near machinery, yes. The output of that is very low quality item, lower quality than San Martin, yes.

    When setting up a manufacture this is precisely where the biggest obstacle is, the machinery.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 2,632 ✭✭✭Fitz II


    The tools Rolex use, like pretty much everything, are manufactured in China 🤣. The tools they dont have they will copy. I would suggest that the Chinese can get the tools for far less than Rolex and are unconcerned with IP law, worker conditions, paying taxes, dealer networks etc. I think you are conflating cheap fakes with this new breed of replicas. These "super clones" certainly exist and it would appear neither of us has first hand experience of them. By all reports, these replicas would not be of the low quality you suggest.

    I think there are a lot of German car manufacturers that have taken to position of underestimating the chinese/asian capacity to manufacture at a high level and are reaping the consequences of that opinion. As somebody who works tangentially in small scale manufacturing I can guarantee you that the technology and cost of high quality production has tumbled. In the last 5 years parts you could only have made in huge expensive production facilities manned by artisans can be produced at similar or better quality by a small team, with minimal experience and skill. Scan the part down to the micron, plug the file into the CAD/CAM machine, 3d printer, SLM machine, 5 axis CNC unit or whatever suits your material, wait an hour and then stick the hundred identical parts it into the automated polisher. After that is just a matter of assembly. They days of having dedicated machines for every process are long dead, and the need to have a wisened swiss gentleman working at that machine to boot. Hell Rolex, up until recently, subcontracted out their springs. What the swiss have is R&D and artistic talent….what the chinese do best is copying, manufacturing and leveraging the economy of scale or the scale of their economy.

    There are manufactures that hand finish, and you can tell (Look at 836bets ALS on the photos page, and imagine trying to replicate the hand engraved balance bridge…with custom balanced wheel). That's harder to replicate but not impossible as the Asians have many cheap hands available. Rolex however do not finish anywhere near that level and have left themselves open to these cloners. Dont get me wrong I love a Rolex, have a couple. But they are mass produced watches built for robustness rather than aesthetics.

    Not at all, all good discussion, just everyone needs to read what is posted and post what they mean.

    Post edited by Fitz II on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    +1 on this, the rise of high precision manufacturing and it's tumble in price has been at the forefront of this industrial cycle.

    Precious metal fake cases manufactured via CNC lathe are available for metal cost and a manufacturer markup.
    These options are openly discussed across multiple forums and Reddit subs.
    The Rolex clone movements 4030, 4131, 3285 and others can all have many of their parts replaced with originals.
    There's a Patek fake movement available with a free sprung balance.
    Even RM have had some of their movements cloned.


    Even our own Thirdfox found out the hardware that fakers buying up the movement he'd chosen for the Sólás meant he couldn't get a 2nd production run undertaken .

    Small Chinese factories are already looking at introducing lithography into their manufacturing processes to ensure they stay abreast of Western innovations.

    What I will say to anyone reading this and wondering just how good a fake might be?
    If I have someone like Fitz and indeed Wibbs telling me to keep my eyes open?
    It's advice I'll take all day everyday and twice on Sundays.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,201 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Can you describe to me this business model please. Copying a movement for a total of 2k, what is the return on investment for these guys there? Who in their right mind would buy a clone Panerai for 2k when you can buy a gen used one for 3.5k?

    They are selling clones for profit. How is that not a viable business model?
    I'd imagine the $1-2k clones are of Rolex, and other $10-20k+, and not $3k watches. But I've no idea what's out there.

    Again, how many sales you would think they would get this way.

    Same question arises - who in their right mind would buy that?

    I think you are underestimating the amount of people who would buy a $1k clone. There are whole communities dedicated to clones. It's not for me, but I can understand people not putting value in the mark-up/profit margin of billion dollar companies.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,142 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Anyone underestimating the capabilities to manufacturer in china only needs to look at the cars they are producing now or have a read of this and understand how it all happened, Apple and Tesla have accelerated things a lot (unwittingly)

    https://www.amazon.ie/Apple-China-Capture-Greatest-Company/dp/1398534374



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    I'd add Dan Wang's Breakneck to that reading list too.
    It does a great job of highlighting the importance of process knowledge and the difficulties that arise in regaining it once you've exported the processes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,149 ✭✭✭H_Lime


    My tuppence.

    A China AliExpress "seiko 62mas" case and bracelet.

    20251006_153321.jpg 20251006_153234.jpg 20251006_153246.jpg 20251006_153341.jpg

    Pretty crap really, polishing has rounded into the coarse inconsistent brushing in places, the internal milling for the nh35 left it a tad sloppy and so on… case and bracelet about fifty euro.

    Now...62 mas from seiko...

    20251006_152244.jpg 20251006_152346.jpg 20251006_152123.jpg 20251006_152340.jpg 20251006_152319.jpg 20251006_152430.jpg

    Pretty much perfect, even uniform brushing with clean lines into zaratsu level polished chamfers, even in macro. A million miles from the first in quality but both are made in Guangzhou.

    China can do literally any level finish anywhere else in the world can do, that's why seiko use them for these and many other cases.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,360 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    scouser-calm-down.gif

    😁

    The vintage market and fakes within is a little different. In many ways it can be much easier to make and pimp out fakes as naturally the tech is older and new tech can sometimes more easily replicate it. Funny enough an exception would be enamel dials where even cheap enough at the time enamel dials from the early 20th century can often blow modern ones out of the water in terms of crispness, quality and features. Simply down to being (mostly)the way to do dials back then so the knowledge, tech and industry behind it was far more geared up to produce them. There are also a lot of spare parts out there spread out over a century to ready up "marriages".

    Plus experts/dealers/auction houses can have much more sway as the market is feckin huge and can take years of obsessive study to spot wrong uns' even within single models. One of my own watches a Heuer 1550 "Bund" a good example. Pages out there dedicated to the dial variations throughout it's decade long run. I'd bet a large proportion are made up from the ocean of spare parts that were once available. Any with the red (3H) for tritium are imho to be treated with extreme prejudice, as with many the red paint is still wet at point of sale…

    This level of nerdiness and time means most buyers don't have time or can be bothered with. So you need an even bigger obsessive like the lad who runs the Perezscope site to call them out. He's "outed" Big Names© like a certain Mr Goldberger. He of famed(among watch nerds) Hodinkee talking watches episode where he opened a rare Rolex chrono with a cheeseknife. He's a trusted big hitter in the space, yet…

    https://perezcope.com/2024/10/16/shitshow-in-monaco-a-made-up-rolex-daytona-john-player-special-and-a-fake-tiffany/

    Not a good look and that Perezscope guy has pages of this kinda thing. IE outright fake dials, wrong movements, dodgy serial numbers, script added to dials, faux patina, fake provenance etc and experts and auction houses signing off on them(and sometimes their own watches). Another famed Talking Watches guest and contributor John Mayer had more than a bit of a legal back and forth with his dealer over a few of his vintage Rolex that were called out as highly dubious. He's subsequently gone the more modern vazazzle on the wrist bejeweled Rolex route and buying PP's and RM's from source. I suspect to reduce the risk of buying fakes.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,904 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    I think where your biases lie on Chinese manufacturing will infuse your views on Chinese watches in all their forms. The default perception of most people in the West is still that Chinese manufacturing is of low quality, producing crap.

    I think that view is quite incorrect. When it comes to watches, the real story is the increase in watchmaking capability because of:

    1. increase in Swiss component manufacturing taking place in China
    2. explosion of western microbrand activity via Chinese factories
    3. Chinese manufacturing policy and “copycat” culture

    They are rapidly learning / copying / iterating / reinvesting. A lot has changed in a half decade imo. The question is where it will be in another half decade…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,960 ✭✭✭Deep Thought


    Learning some great stuff here. Great video. Was a bit surprised at the quality of the Rolex date printing

    The narrower a man’s mind, the broader his statements.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 77 ✭✭prime87


    So last few posts are saying that black market clone manufacture setups are the same as industry level manufacturing in China aimed at competing / working with Western rivals?

    Not sure what to even say to such statement.

    I'd like a tour of such place so I can setup up SpaceX tomorrow too from 0 & with fake id.😆



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,142 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    I've owned maybe 15 rolexes down the years (not all at the same time ) , a guy I know has one of the Daytona super clones , honestly I'd be very hard pressed to tell the difference.

    And it scares me a little , was 700 usd I think .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 77 ✭✭prime87


    See, these kind of posts are the problem.

    What people usually read / get from posts like this is that the clone is of the same quality.

    Whereas you never actually even said that right?

    These are 2 diametrically different things, telling the difference and same quality.

    Hence a sea of these opinions that they are almost the same, they are not.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,904 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    I don’t think the last few posts are saying that at all. There is a rising tide of watchmaking capability and experience in China that is lifting all the boats, including the super clone black market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 77 ✭✭prime87


    Agreed on the first point, definitely there is, to an insane degree, but not the later, it doesn't include the super clone black market. They are sweatshops at best.

    If they really had impressive setups wouldn't you think a regular boy-racer reseller would get them to grab a few photos of the manufacturing place to build his case when selling a fake it is from a worthy establishment, working with "same" machines Rolex is. I'd say they'd be all over it. But surprise surprise, that's all hidden and not for safety purposes but because it's all shite.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 77 ✭✭prime87


    Really not sure what to say any more, if you guys are adamant there is no telling the difference there is a good saying:

    No Explanation Is Needed for a Believer; No Explanation Suffices for an Unbeliever

    And I intentionally quote belief here since that is what comes down to here, not facts that is for sure. People obviously don't know enough about this if it is even a discussion point from both sides that is.

    Problem is, someone does a video on super clone, they talk to an expert who literally says, "this is of very very poor quality" and yet someone will still then repost that and say it's a super clone and that they could be fooled and that the same place which manufactured it is on par with state of the art facilities.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 10,643 ✭✭✭✭893bet


    https://www.adverts.ie/38391198


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,149 ✭✭✭H_Lime


    While we're all here....if a gun was put to your head and you had to pick one these hideous, poorly built and ill conceived monstrosities, would you go black or white?

    Screenshot_20251006_211626_Reddit.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,423 ✭✭✭dinorebel




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 486 ✭✭Ian OB


    I'd take the black out of the pair of them. If it was available in a dateless format, I'd actively search it out TBH



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,149 ✭✭✭H_Lime


    Me too, had it in the cart and all...

    And then bought black! You have a point re no date mind...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,142 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Maybe not of the same quality but good enough on his wrist to fool anyone looking at it which is the point of fakes I suppose !



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,904 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    which model is that H?



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