Presidential Election 2025

Yes a celebrity (albeit in quotes). Martin obviously thought the public profile of this man would be stronger than having a public representative who has already been elected to a post. I think Martin misjudged the influence the GAA has. Gavin was floundering before this fatal blow.

There won't be a GE on the back of the budget. Early term govt is the time for these tougher budgets. The last 2 budgets will be more user friendly. Voters have short memories. This isn't the first rodeo for FF or FG!

I’d argue that by tomorrow Gavins name won’t be mentioned overall- the focus has now clearly moved to the reasons why he was put forward, the due diligence completed, the naïvety of such a decision given his political inexperience and ultimately, the decision makers. The heat and spotlight has now turned on Martin etc JG has left the stage.

“If FF have a shortfall FG will pick up the slack”

I think that day and those times have passed - the FF/FG sticking plaster has come off- too many ordinary FF voters are now suffering economically - there’s no way they’ll vote FG- that’s just looking for more hardship - while they may not vote SF, they’ll likely vote Labour or independent - but ultimately that will just create the numbers for a massive SF coalition

Ah in fairness to Gavin he did the right thing - probably the only thing open to him was retire from the contest - he couldn’t justify what he did - no one could - and it would just have dominated the next few weeks - we are where we are- it’s up to the public now to decide who gets what vote

Reason he was picked is that he wasn't really fianna fail so could have been sidestepped at the next election making way for Martin to step in. If a fianna fail head had gotten in they would have had to support him/her for a second term. Gavin would have opened the door for a martin run if fianna fail choice got in this time

Don’t shoot the messenger 😀

Yeah it probably was “bleak” - but like many I’m finding it hard to see that sunlight on the horizon and if SF get in, who knows where we’ll end up - but I might just keep Pieta house no on my phone - thanks 😀

What he misjudged was Gavin's ability to actually speak the English language.

He was beyond useless every time he had to answer a question.

Actually I was thinking about this over the weekend even before the Gavin exit, especially in the context of Michael McDowell's quote that he wouldn't support her candidacy because he thought she had a good chance of winning. I though what an utter hypocrite is McDowell claiming to support democracy yet unwilling to let the people vote for their choice of candidate. Surely that is the purpose of real democracy; letting the people decide and, whilst I'm no fan of Stein's position myself, I did admire her capability and articulation and I think her omission disenfranchises a growing cohort of conservative voters in Ireland, especially among younger voters (whether we like it or not!) , who are not at all represented by either of the remaining uninspiring candidates.

I probably wouldnt pass comment on the bookies, but it is a game changing moment. Both remaining Candidates will receive a boost from this.

On Fianna Fail's reaction, IMHO, no they wont automatically roll in behind Humphreys. FF are about to receive a punch in terms of their overall polling. They have gone to pains numerous times to quash the idea of FF and FG being two sides of the same coin. It would be smart, politically, if they cared about the presidential election, to back HH. But given how they have conducted themselves, I question whether they care at all. Martin will also be under pressure, both internally from his own party, and externally in the media; throwing the FF hat behind FG at this point would only increase the pressure received from his 'die hard' cohort of FF voters & party members. This cohort of FF purests would scream bloody murder, probably in the public square, if any attempt was made to back 'the old enemy'. I could see some modest silent support moving toward Humphreys, and if you think about it, she is a FG Candidate and former minister. Were FF to fail to register any criticisms or commentary on her, that could be viewed as tacit support.

In terms of the election as it stands, Humphreys and Connolly have a huge chance now. CC has the greater chance, because of the Budget. Leaving aside the presidents limited roll in policy, CC needs to pivot toward domestic matters this week. Obvious attack avenues are open, and will become wider after tomorrow; she should concentrate on FG, their record in government, the part they play in the budget, and the negative effect it will have on the poorest in society. If she did that, while 'stepping back' from some of the more contentious foreign policy topics, she will simply win the election.

Iv debated this with you before @MFPM , and i dont want to get into another serious disagreement. Im stating the above because to me, its the simplist path to victory for Connolly. Move away from controversial topics, roll back her stance on the Eirigi issue. Defuse it by offering a tacit acknowledgement of how it looks with 20-20 hindsight. Acknowledging that it was perhaps, an 'error' of judgement, while highlighting that perhaps she wasnt 'fully aware' of the ladies extremist views. The Eirigi story can be successfully disarmed with some clever political spin, and a pivot toward more societal topics, could win the election for Connolly.

Humphreys has also received a boost, but her advantage is different in my opinion. She was always positioned closer to Jim Gavin, so she will be trying to bolster that position, and absorb as much of his support as possible. She and her campaign have a vested interest in PREVENTING Conolly from using any of the aforementioned tactics. While Humphreys will also maintain her more moderate placing as a candidate, appealling to the undecideds. She showed tactical awareness over the Occupied Territories Bill; in the first debate she seemed to be asking the question of whether there is any point in it? Without batting an eye, she walked that back yesterday, saying that Ireland should pursue it to register their moral opposition to Israeli Illegal Settlements.

Ironically, despite the race narrowing to two candidates, it may become a more energetic campaign from this point forward. Another POLL, and were it to show a close race, and it could be game on.

Only my opinion, happy to hear your thoughts

It's highly unlikely he resigns though not completely ruled out. However, this is the beginning of the end for him...There will be an agreement to phase him out I suspect.