Presidential Election 2025

It’s the main reason I don’t understand why all the fuss over Connolly- have we forgotten Ukraine that quickly? Obviously Gaza brings in more votes these days than Russian bashing

The smaller the field the harder it is to hide- there were low scoring candidates in last elections who no one even cared to comment on no less vote for- given that Connolly is doing well, HH needs Gavin to do well too - unless there’s another major negative issue emerging it’s looking like it’s Connollys to lose

Gavin saw the rental money in his account and thought, yes, it’s mine. But it wasn’t his. Unless I’m missing something, this stinks of dishonesty and greed. It’s quite awful. One of humanities worst traits, is greed

CC, I might elevate you to number 2..

do you want the vast majority on this island to understand the questions and answers? If so, leave the Irish alone!!

Based on Gavin's performance, there are serious questions about Micheal Martin's judgement.

You’re certainly correct in that not all information is in the public domain on this matter - however, given JD’s replies to date - “I was in financial difficulty” “it was 16 years ago” “I don’t have all the information to hand” - it really does feel like he first tried to side step this issue and when that didn’t work, he’s possibly frantically trying to pay off the debt quietly behind the scenes to that personso that he can categorically state “the matter is now closed”-

I’m not going to finger point someone in financial trouble in the late 2000s- hell most of the country were impacted in some way- but this was a rent over payment -even if it did take a few years it should have been paid back- it wasn’t his to hold onto and he got the benefit of the money in the meantime. And it wasn’t a large sum relatively speaking

Not confirming the story is true or accurate, means he hasn’t denied it either -which will lead the public to believe it’s true - and the longer this goes on the worse it will be for him

I know he said he’ll “deal with this issue as a matter of urgency” at lunchtime today on RTÉ - but where did he say he’ll “pay it back” - was that a recent statement or are you referring to what he allegedly said to the tenant at the time?

I don’t think it makes much difference as Gavin is only “making up the numbers” in this race. Pardon the pun.
Didn’t I see banks have instant Sepa transfer online now. No excuses. But you would wonder why it dragged on so long.

Similar to the Ni Shionnain story who leaked it? You would wonder who leaked the Gavin landlord story. Obvious idea smear him as the out of touch money grabbing landlord etc. it is not needed though he will lose without that story.

“You would wonder who leaked the Gavin landlord story.”-

it could have been the actual tenant approaching a newspaper directly- especially given they have allegedly never received this payment and the story appears as a first person account if I recollect correctly - it’s not really something that would be “leaked” per se

Maybe I missed it somewhere but I don't think anyone on social media in FF including the official accounts and Micheál have commented on Jim Gavin in the debate today. Sharp contrast compared with the Virgin Media debate.

My Thoughts on the Second Debate

This was a more lively debate, and it was clear from the outset, that it would hammer into the talking points of the campaigning so far. I still maintain that, overall; we are dealing with 3 relatively poor candidates. But it was a more engaging debate, and should go some distance toward bringing the election into a more publically prominent position.

For what it is worth, here is my opinion.

Jim Gavin:

Gavin remains unable to communicate adequately in this election. On topics where he has relevant points to make, he cannot help but slip up, and offer yet more material for parody and ridicule. On every topic raised, JG becomes incoherent after a few seconds of speaking, and a would-be supporter must try to ‘re-assemble’ his argument after the fact. It’s an untenable position to be in, and given his positioning in the polls, he will more likely be, the candidate eliminated after the first count.

Given all of the above, and concentrating more on individual topics, Gavin was very weak on Irish unity, and if he had a relevant point on it, I failed to re-assemble it after the fact. When attacked directly on the issues surrounding his campaign, he failed to explain the rent related scandal, and his response was incoherent. I’ve heard the term ‘word salad’ applied in analysis of how certain politicians speak, and JG’s response to this topic was a prime example of ‘Word Salad in Action’. He has had over a decade to solve any issues surrounding moneys owed, and nothing he said could explain the current story. On the issue of the use of Drones by his campaign, he made no sense, and attempted to give a prepared statement, but utterly failed to deliver. It was not possible to piece together what his explanation was, and it’s questionable whether anyone understood him.

If Jim Gavin had a single high point in this debate, it was in speaking about Foreign Policy matters, where he successfully landed some hits on Connolly. Despite communication being poor, he highlighted the limited role of the President in Foreign Policy, while attacking CC over her faulty comparisons regarding German Re-arming. He also did well when reading from a prepared statement on Israel/Gaza, but with all candidates broadly agreeing on this topic, it was only notable due to it being pre-written.

Overall, Jim Gavin cannot make an impact in this election. The talking points will invariably return to Fianna Fail’s selection process, and why they felt he was suitable. The fact that Jack Chambers is supposedly running his campaign, leaves open the real possibility that FF don’t take this election seriously. Gavin’s distinguished career in GAA, and his history with the Irish Defence Force, cannot alter his trajectory, and his chances of gaining support vary from ‘slim’ to ‘none’. He deservedly remains the rank outsider in this election, and I firmly believe he will slip further in polls as we approach the 24th. Only ‘Die Hard’ Fianna Fail supporters could spin success out of his candidacy, and this election could serve to highlight how many of these voters remain.

Catherine Connolly

In terms of communication, Connolly is incredibly skilled. Regardless of how one feels about her opinions, one is never in doubt as to what they are. On talking points such as possible reform of the nomination process, and on Irish Unity, she made her opinions very clear. In discussing the Irish Language, and her use of it, she clearly led the field, and will gain traction on these two issues at the expense of her opponents.

Relating to the Eirigi-Vetting scandal, Connolly’s explanations and talking points made far less sense. I view her credibility as taking another hit, when she spoke without hesitation, on the admiration she feels for the Lady at the centre of the scandal. This was especially damaging, considering the video evidence of the ladies extremist views, and her taking part in a mock execution of the British Head of State. Continually defending Eirigi as a ‘legitimate party’, considering that said party refuses to accept the legitimacy of this state, was also weak. The attempted ‘deflection’ on to the media, as having dragged the lady into the public discourse, merely to damage the Connolly campaign, reflects the views of her base; but it does nothing to soften the issue for the wider audience. The story is still unfolding, and her opponents landed numerous hits, including forcing CC to admit she signed the lady in for a number of months. Given comments that confirm Garda vetting procedures take a few weeks at most, this renders Connolly’s timeline as being worthy of further inquiry.

On Foreign Policy, Catherine Connolly is nothing if not persistent. She maintains her factually inaccurate analogy between European Military Spending post Ukraine War, with that of the 1930s. When receiving numerous blows from both Humphreys and Gavin, she seemed intent on weathering the criticisms with a smile; the optics of this response were baffling in my opinion. She stated her foreign policy position, without attempt to broaden its scope, or walk back her more incendiary views. Putting this as simply as possible, the Connolly Base will be thrilled by this segment, but she will not gain any additional support on this topic from beyond this bloc. Anyone with some basic knowledge of History, and Foreign Policy, can personally debunk her stances without breaking a sweat. Her opponents landed numerous blows, and made their opposition clear, which should broaden their appeal. And when it came to condemning Russia, she did so, only as an afterthought, on a point she clearly views as secondary to her other Foreign Policy Positions.

Overall, it was what I have come to expect from Catherine Connolly. She communicates her positions clearly, and did state that, if elected, she would have no issue with welcoming foreign dignitaries, regardless of her personal feelings on the matter. Her strategy seems to involve ‘more of the same’ on the policies she cares about. While I have no hesitation in declaring agreement over housing and societal issues, foreign policy remains the dividing topic for me. Her judgement and credibility will continue to be questioned RE the vetting story, and given her stance today, I could see it becoming a central feature of the election as a whole.

Heather Humphreys

Humphreys communication could best be described as adequate and assured, but never passionate. She had far more of a vocal presence in this debate, but she remained in second place to Connolly, in terms of the volume of her participation. She made a lot of sense in describing her Ministerial Career, and handled well the criticism thrown at her RE Cabinet discussions. In addressing the issue of Shane Ross and her positions on Drink Driving, she highlighted how she voted in public, and questioned the merits of breaking protocol on confidentiality regarding cabinet meetings. Its worth mentioning that she did experience a slip up in ‘condoning drink driving’ momentarily, but this was neutralized by her response on the topic as a whole.

Humphreys handled the issue of the Irish Language VERY well, despite the admission of her lack of fluency. When the topics swung to foreign policy, she joined Gavin in attacking CC, with both landing numerous blows. It was clearly tactical, and it succeeded in my view, in registering the common views that she and JG share in contrast to Connolly. Displaying more political tact than her opponents, she also walked back her inferred opinion on the Occupied Territories Bill; She continued, adding that it was a question of moral objection to the illegal settlements in the occupied west bank.

On how she would deal with Trump, or other such leaders, Humphreys delivered the most vocal and coherent response; she will meet whomever she is required to as President of Ireland, but would highlight Irish Values of inclusion and cooperation. She spoke about this as being a vital factor in maintaining Irish Positioning regarding our International Relationships, and how it can influence the talking points internationally.

My Conclusion

In my opinion, Catherine Connolly remained on top in this debate. The degree to which she won is open to interpretation. For her supporters, who agree with her on most issues, they will see her victory as a landslide. While other floating and undecided voters, would definitely remain questioning her judgement on more than a few issues.

Heather Humphreys had the most to gain today, and did so in my opinion. She remains a relatively weak candidate in terms of charisma, but she said what she needed to, and displayed a great deal of political tact throughout her performance. My opinion would be that she came second in the debate, but gained more of a foothold. I wouldn’t be surprised if she gains support in future polls, narrowing the gap between herself and Connolly.

The clear outright loser of the debate was Jim Gavin, and I personally, could not help reflecting on the poor judgement demonstrated by Fianna Fail in selecting him to run. He remains incapable of making an impact, or communicating what points he wishes to make. Barring a serious calamity for either of the other candidates, he is sure to be eliminated first. The only question will then be on the redistribution of his votes.

Anyway thats my take – interested to hear what others think

“His selection was a complete shambles for Martin and the FF party.”

I don’t think people have the energy or motivation to lambaste Gavin; as you say he’s totally unsuitable for this role and that should have been obvious from before getting the nomination - it’s Martin that will definitely get it in the neck - for his sake HH better win