Presidential Election 2025

Sarah McInerney could do it. Don't think that Miriam O'Callaghan or Aine Lawlor have the ability. Let's see if RTE can be objective rather than partisan.

If Gavin and Humphreys start tearing each other apart, that reduces the number of possible transfers. They have to focus on Connolly.

Gavin does have an impressive cv, but you do wonder who headhunted him, we know the rumors which don't need to be repeated here, his lack of charisma is known by those who met him and I wonder if the story about him as a landlord would have came out if truly looked at? Kelleher is a bit meh, but he would have done fine IMO.

US politics shows the risks in electing someone based only on charisma., while overlooking the warning signs.

CC is charismatic. But I am very concerned at the Ursula Ní Shonnain appointment. James Lawless TD has asked who CC would appoint to the Council of State, and whether CC would accept Garda vetting or over rule it.

CC should promise not to appoint people with serious criminal convictions, or opponents of the GFA to the Council of State.

For a parallel. In the US, many questionable people, some with ties to Russia, entered the administration, and the normal FBI vetting was waived in many cases. They passed some of it to the Pentagon, which is controlled by Pete Hegseth, a man who is himself the subject of controversial accusations.

The US presidency is different to the Irish presidency. It typically results in a change of government. The Irish presidency does not. You missed the important mood change. Lawless is asking questions about what Connolly would do as president. That is a massive shift from when Connolly was a no-hoper candidate. This is a government TD thinking of Connolly as president. It is almost an acceptance of the possibility that Connolly could win.

Yes but the poll also says 31% are undecided, and that they lean quite heavily to the Right, though some are Centre Right. Maybe not natural Connolly voters?

And that 22% of voters would have voted for Maria Steen.

47% in the poll say Maria Steen should have been allowed on the ballot.

Interesting results on what people are looking for in a President:

- 68% say they should b'é able the speak Irish.

- 54% day the most important aspect is being an effective public speaker, while 36% say it's experience.

But:

- 71% say a President should not be allowed hire someone with serious criminal convictions.

- only about 4-6% say Gaza or neutrality is the most Important issue.

Also I don't know if it's the same poll, but SF is polling 21% in the poll. Simon Harris' approval rating has risen to 39%, while Mary Lou McDonald is ón 34%. Just reported now. I'll need to read the newspaper to see where the other party's are.

Interesting poll. Connolly will have to be taken seriously now. The undecideds factor is high, but could account for the lack of interest in the race so far. I' cant see Gavin picking up from this, his race is over I reckon. Its a frosty Sunday bit of reading for HH and FF and FG.

Any thoughts on this: "Data suggests transfers from Fianna Fáil candidate would seal her victory"? Transfers from Gavin to Connolly may indicate that there is an FF vote that is distinct from the pro-FG Martin element. Would they vote for Gavin #1 and then transfer to Connolly? Could Martin end up being the lame duck leader rather than Harris?

She is honestly a crank, I will give her that

Why and what trouble do you predict?

Those party leader ratings are just filler. The real difference between FF and FG is that there has already been a tentative leadership challenge to Martin. His lead parachute candidate, Gavin, only got 41 votes to Kelleher's 29. Harris was able to see off Kelly's challenge to Humphreys. If Connolly wins and Gavin is in third place, then Martin's position is in question and there will be a scramble for positions in a post-Martin FF. There is more at stake here for FF than the presidency.

You're spot on re the JG v BK issue, the vote BK got despite the front bench backing for JG was significant, there were attempts here and elsewhere to down play it. If JG does as badly as it's looking MM could be in some bother.

The Russian Bot/Syria Supporter stuff is not having any traction with enough of the electorate, they are clearly not buying the scaremongering.

Where or how they take Connolly down with a budget coming and Humphreys and Gavin clearly not able to rise to Connolly's superior intellect will be interesting. More dirt probably.