Presidential Election 2025

Connolly is clearly picking up non left wing support. People were assuming pre-campaign that this wouldn't happen, but her appeal seems to be going outside SF-Lab-SDs etc.

I have read the thread and commented on it quite a bit. I made no comment in that post on the debate so no idea what that's about.

100% : MM has effed up royally here. If Steen was in the race as well, Gavin would probably be in single figures in the Sunday Indo poll.

Yes. Surprised by that poll if I’m honest. Even without the Connolly story I thought it would be closer with HH.

Never thought Gavin would get close tbh- chancer.

Connolly had an excellent debate the other evening (and the other two didn't). That type of performance is likely to pick up support from outside her traditional base.

I forgot how bad that was. The tweet wasn't real, wasn't it? Either way, Gallagher snookered himself twice. First by saying "I do not recall" and secondly by mentioning an envelope. Brought himself down. No political sense.

Quite surprised with the poll results, I figured Gavin would be last but thought Humphreys would be leading.

30% undecided is a lot, and I do wonder if Connolly is doing much to attract undecideds over to her. But she's in great spot now and should be in very good form for tomorrow's debate..

So regarding the polls, nothing is entirely unexpected. For what its worth, he is my analysis

Jim Gavin: I said it earlier as did others. His campaign has crashed. Even leaving aside the near impossibility of winning, he will likely be eliminated first. Only a 'Moon shot' could save his candidacy. If he can get connection with one serious topic, at the expense of the other two candidates, he could gain some support. Frankly I do not see this happening, he lacks experience, and his ability to communicate is terrible. IMHO, unless one, or both, of the other candidates trip up substantially, Jim Gavin is finished.

Heather Humphreys: Still in contention, needs to both attack CC, and try and appeal to Gavin voters for their second prefs. Its doable, but requires HH to make her presence felt tomorrow. The tactic could involve going after CC, for the multitude of unforced errors, questioning her ability for the role. Its all fairly obvious, but coming to Gavin's defense might be needed. Ironically, she needs him to poll a bit better too, as well as gaining the support and sympathy of his 1st Prefs. She will likely be second on a first count, but if she can narrow the gap, she can still win on transfers.

Catherine Connolly: Winning is well within her grasp, but she needs to defuse the minefield that she herself has created. Positively staying away from future contentious issues, she should also direct her fire toward HH, and away from Gavin. She also needs to reframe the debate to hoover up a lions share of undecideds. She can do so by pivoting her campaign towards more unifying topics, of domestic concern. This could be a HUGE vote winner this week, considering the budget. She is facing two FFG candidates, at a time when they are about to deliver a harsh budget, removing both energy credits and one off payments. By focusing on domestic issues, she can capture some of the upcoming disaffection, and deny gains to her opponents.

Overall

Many of us saw this poll coming a mile away, and are probably not surprised. Its now a two horse race in my view. Im sure Gavin supporters will find this difficult to swallow; if it were a better candidate we were talking about, I could see their point. Perhaps enough time remains, and its early days etc. But Gavin is horrendously ill-equipped to make any inroads. Even with my outlined tactics of CC and HH going after each other, and giving Gavin a pass - it will be purely self interest on their parts, and IMHO, he wont be able to capitalize. He truly lacks the ability to do so.

As to CC v HH: My gut feeling is that CC has the momentum, or at least, appeared to have it, during the time-period in which this poll was taken. Getting some more polling, since the vetting story this week, will be crucial. Tomorrows debate will be massive for Humphreys and I could see her getting into the mud with CC over foreign policy. But she needs to avoid any trip ups, and have herself prepared to challenge CC on the main talking points.

It will be very interesting to watch - and i look forward to it!

Micheal Martin will surely be facing into a crisis given he backed Jim Gavin and it wasn't very popular with the grassroots or even particularly within the parliamentary party.

If he'd given Kelleher the go-ahead he'd probably be sailing ahead at this point.

He could have for him and FF and Gavin a revolt or heavy internal criticism to deal with before the campaign ends

Budget is going to favour Connolly and neither of her chasers.

She appeared presidential. The others didn't. It is that simple.