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Fighter jets for the Air Corps?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,184 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    You might be misunderstanding my framing, and thats entirely my fault as it was me who introduced the "pure interceptor" frame of reference.
    No nation, no-one can afford to operate single role combat aircraft anymore and given the convergence of capability and the flexibility that technology offers?
    Theres rarely any need to.

    My point, which I should have framed better.
    Is that on the actual matrix of what our operational need for a fast jet is?
    On what we need it to do, and why?
    We are likely the only nation since the 60's that can credibly point to a single role, "interception" as being the raison d'etre for any fast jet we induct.
    Yes the secondary capabilities are important, but the immediate need for AP capability outweighs them and sure once whatever we buy can carry a decent antiship missile?
    Then thats another string to the bow!


    With that in mind?
    It is vital for whatever our future air force becomes and for the capability of the force to credibly fulfil its role.
    That we ensure the best possible balance is struck between affordability and capability in what we purchase.
    I'd also reiterate a point I've made earlier, in that we dont need to train our fast jet pilots, we outsource that to the training programme of whichever Nation we buy from. (UK, French, Swedes & Italians all operate fast jet training).

    To that end, a LiFT on steroids, immediately demonstrates that cost over capability was a concern.
    We arent buying a fleet of multiple squadrons, at best?
    We are buying at best 16 and at minimum 8 fast jets whenever we get around to it.
    For the sake of capability, intraoperability, european solidarity and sustainment should global supply lines become victim to conflict, interdiction or delay ?
    That puts a European aircraft at the centre of what we should be considering.
    I say that knowing that there will soon be a Polish MLU operating for the FA50 too.
    Our vision must more than "just good enough".
    Not that we need F22s or even Eurofighter but, surely?!
    Surely it needs more capability than the FA50.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,421 ✭✭✭jonnybigwallet


    Hmm. Sounds like the main anxiety around the FA50 is around it's range.

    It is a multi role machine albeit air policing is not it's strongest suit…granted.

    However, bear in mind that the most likely intercept would be one of them bears....which are not very fast. I wonder could KAI fit larger fuel tanks?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 127 ✭✭RavenP


    @jonnybigwallet Bears are pretty fast, actually, as fast as ani airliner or B52, despite the props.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,184 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    Bears are quite quick, the main thing to consider is closing speed. If a Bear is flying 200km offshore and cruising at 700kph and you launch a QRA of 2 FA50 carrying 2 drop tanks and 2 AAM.
    The likelihood is that your top speed is immediately cut from Mach 1.5 to Mach 1.1 (That's assuming FA50 has area rule fuel tanks available, if not? Slower again) at high altitude and acceleration particularly transonic acceleration hugely reduced.

    So what does that mean for the intercept?
    Well your closing and overtake speeds are massively reduced.
    Forcing your aircraft to fly longer for the same intercept versus a faster airframe.
    Remember, flight hours cost money and are the measure of airframe life and maintenance needs.
    Your target either turns away and extends your intercept into a tail chase.
    Or they turn towards you and close the distance to Ireland.


    One of the primary aims of Bears and other aircraft flying through ADIZ isn't just to test Air Defence reaction times.
    It is to force an amount of operational attrition onto the intercepting Air Forces.
    From just forcing airframe hours to rack up on interceptors and support aircraft and systems.
    Onto the possibility of airframe failure, maintenance errors and increased attrition that comes with high tempo ops.


    An intercept at a maximum speed of 900kph versus an intercept at a maximum speed of 1400kph (Gripen in a 2 tank config) ensures that the latter, can reach the interloper faster, That it is intercepted further from Ireland and that flight hours expended are also minimised.

    So the cost of the FA50 in additional flight hours for the same mission profiles must be considered against the benefit of its lower initial cost.
    I don't think it offers sufficient gain over the operational lifetime versus a dedicated fighter airframe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭Randycove


    you mean jets that are currently just talk, no one knows how they will be paid for and probably will never happen?

    Sounds like it aligns with the department of defence pretty well 🤣



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 705 ✭✭✭Gary kk


    Airframes are meant be used, pretty sure the will be given lead in time to meet a aircraft that might be entering Irish airspace.

    The additional flight hours is not going to have a noticeable impact.

    They will be able to carry anti ship missiles. Unstring that bow.

    Not sure of the CPFH of either. But if anyone wants to added please do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,184 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    Philippines and Thailand (when tendering for new aircraft) have reported CPFH for FA50 of between $10-14k.

    The FA-50’s design emphasizes adaptability, enabling it to perform air defense, close air support, reconnaissance, and advanced pilot training. Its relatively low operating costs—estimated at $10,000 per flight hour compared to $20,000 for an F-16—make it ideal for nations like the Philippines, which face budgetary constraints but require credible deterrence.

    Whereas the Gripen E's cost per flight hour is reported as between $5.8k - $8k.

    Its cost per flight hour is $5,800, easily beating the F-35’s cost of about $35,000 per flight hour.

    Disregarding the effect of longer mission transits on Airframe lifecycle and attrition is misguided.
    Aircraft life, it's time between overhauls and it's time to retirement are all Measured in hours flown, not distance travelled.
    If an airframe can travel 40% faster to the intercept point?

    It can undertake more missions before mandatory overhauls and maintenance and is available to complete more intercepts in the same distance flown as the cheaper option.
    Faster transit times allow more time on station, and just as importantly.
    It allows any subsequent QRA launch to be held on the ground and not waste airframe hours should a relay launch be needed or indeed should it not be due to the original intercept meeting it's target faster and further from Ireland.

    If it costs 40% less to operate a dedicated air defence airframe, and it has a performance margin of 40% more over the nearly good enough airframe?

    For an initial price difference of 20-25% per unit, it's pretty clear which is the better option in terms of operational suitability, lifecycle costs, intra operability and access to a suitable pilot training programme.

    The FA50 isn't suitable as a nations sole air defence asset, if it were?
    The Philippines wouldn't also be pursuing separate Air Defence fighter acquisitions.
    Malaysia wouldn't be negotiating for Kuwait's old F18s.
    Thailand wouldn't have ordered the Gripen E.
    It's perfectly adequate as a 2nd line, support and attack aircraft as it's use by Poland and South Korea would demonstrate.

    Any actual purchase made for Irish air defence is best viewed as a once in a generation purchase.
    It's going to have every hour possible wrung out of its airframe before it's retired.
    We can buy something that's designed and built from the ground up to do that job, such as the Gripen.
    Or, we can convince ourselves that something that isn't designed for the role, that has a secondary capability that we would expand into its primary role, is good enough.

    It isn't, nor should we try and convince ourselves that it is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 705 ✭✭✭Gary kk


    Ah here a you really saying the CPFH for a Griphen E is under 6k ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,184 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    I'm saying the lowest reported of the range is $5.8 there was an upper figure of $8k and in general when I'm reporting anything that has a range? I'll share the upper and lower of the band.

    As I did for the FA50.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 705 ✭✭✭Gary kk


    Screenshot_20250924_184054_Chrome.jpg

    I still think you are low balling



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,184 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    I tend not to do feelings, I try and aggregate as much info as I can lay hands on and where I can find good current info?
    I try to infer, I'm not an expert but military aviation is a field I have a long amateur interest in.

    So with that in mind, I made you a chart, I've pulled together some sources and the Gripen's numbers have certainly risen with inflation since the $5.8k estimate in 2022, but?
    So has every other airframe and the current estimate of $8k per hour is significantly less than the figure of $10k per hour the Philippines claim for the FA50 CPFH.
    And an order of magnitude less than the $14k that Thailand assessed as the FA50 CPFH when they tendered earlier this year.

    If you have numbers that challenge the info? Please, share them?
    I'd love to review them and see where it falls amongst the current CPFH suppositions.

    1000030823.jpg 1000030825.jpg

    Now if you want more reading on operating costs of aircraft?
    Fora like secretprojects.co.uk F16.net PPRuNe and fightercontrol.co.uk are all worth a look.
    Some incredibly knowledgeable and experienced contributors there and lots to learn.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,155 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Per Jane's Information Group in 2012, the Gripen's operational cost was the lowest among several modern fighters; it was estimated at $4,700 per flight hour.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 705 ✭✭✭Gary kk


    I think Saab sponsored that Jane's article.

    Something is not adding up here.

    The figures seem to be just for fuel.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,875 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Given the basic unavailability of new fighters due to heavy demand, I wonder would the US sell us some F-15-EX's, minus the bits they don't want to export? It's not even expensive given what Eurofighters and Rafales cost. The production line might have less pressure on it than the F-35 and F-16 ones.

    Best bet might be to get a bid in quick for Spain's F-18s. Might be a good idea given Shannon's location and marine ops. I'm downwind from Shannon given prevailing SW winds, and Storm Éowyn left salt residue on my windows, and many other peoples.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,217 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Everyone plays games with cost figures to suit their position, it’s not a new trick,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,365 ✭✭✭source


    I was always a big fan of US military kit, and they do make very good aircraft in general.

    But again, given the current issues over there and how untrustworthy the administration is, we should avoid buying equipment that could wind up as hangar queens because the orange one has decided we don't deserve ongoing support and parts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,217 ✭✭✭sparky42


    The new model 15's are in demand from the US and Israel as is with some 150 on order, so I don't see that as an easy production line queue either even without the issues of US politics/foreign policy currently. Add in the balance of buying European, which might be a wise choice for our own diplomatic needs given the increased attention to our lack of attention on defence.

    But this is still cart before the horse, with nothing to show that the DoD/Finance has any intention of letting empty soundbites from the Minister become reality.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,875 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The jets will outlive Krasnov by many decades. I agree with you, buying European would be the ideal, but its been left so long, the queues for those resemble the ones for petrol in Crimea.

    A bird in the hand.. is usually the right solution.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,421 ✭✭✭jonnybigwallet


    Very pragmatic post. The train has already left the station for Euro jets. So the next best alternative is the FA50 block 70 and design the tactics around its range limitations. IE 2nd wave take over the intercept. Happens all the time in the UK! If we don't get decisive there'll be nowt left apart from them auld Chengdous (or whateverys call em in Jonny Chinaland).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,217 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Again the F15 line already has 150 on the books to be delivered and we should not ignore that it’s a Boeing product, ie shite QC. There is no chance of them being a quick purchase anymore than any other airframe talked about, not too mention one of the highest costing upfront and with life costs.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,875 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I suspected you would be as thrilled with the idea as the upper echelons in Finance are with the topic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,217 ✭✭✭sparky42


    I’ve made my views on purchasing fighters known more than once on this thread, though I would say it’s interesting to go from a cost effective option to arguably the most expensive 4.5 gen fighter because… reasons.


    It’s production line is no more “open” than any other current build fighter, it’s corporate culture is beyond **** across all its major divisions, the US is having a moment or two of who knows what, but sure the F15 should be considered…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,822 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    Heres my stab at my crystal ball

    6 Gripens will be bought

    with 2 x QRA, 2 x Getting flying hours up and 2 x always been in for a service.

    Fully contracted service crew to keep them flying with Air Corps NCOs looking over them.

    All Air Corps Gripen Training to take place overseas.

    The government can then say we have protected Air Space and we are all safe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,421 ✭✭✭jonnybigwallet


    Hmm. As Stalin said…"There is quality in quantity". We could have double the number of FA50's for the same bucks and a quick delivery. 6 is a meagre number to meet a significant threat.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    Double 'inadequately useful' is still 'inadequately useful' and would be a false economy of scale.

    Do it right, or don't do it at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,217 ✭✭✭sparky42


    I mean we only have nearly a century of examples of half arsing it, with all the costs and weakness that became clear over and over year after year. Absolutely we should either fund the actual full capability (which we can) or just grow up and get a more formalised and structured agreement with the UK.

    Harris btw is still waffling:

    Mr Harris also said he looks forward to increased spending for the Defence Forces being announced in the Budget.

    He said the focus of the Government is on reaching Level of Ambition 2 (LoA2), which will increase defence spend on radar and sonar capabilities.

    He said the Government takes the security of Ireland "extraordinarily seriously".

    "Ireland's a proud, militarily neutral country, militarily unaligned country. That's not the same, though, as saying you don't take your defence and security seriously. We take it extraordinarily seriously," Mr Harris said.

    He said following this initial spend, the ambition is to reach LoA3 which would include increasing air capacity in terms of fighter jets.

    Lt Gen Mulcahy described it as a step approach and said the increase in spend is "a very comprehensive, probably the largest investment that the state will make in capability and in capital".

    He said it will include radar functionality, air defence systems, and will also include radars on board ships.

    Lt Gen Mulcahy described it as a very comprehensive approach - and said the delivery of those systems will be throughout 2026.

    Bets on the headline budget figure?

    Also, what will be the arse covering if a certain nation that is sending ships up the West Coast decides to point out we have no radar/air defence and starts running drones over the country like we've seen this week in the rest of Europe?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,155 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    We wouldn't even know if drones were in most of our airspace.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,887 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Honestly, we wouldn't even know if drones from outside were in ANY of our airspace. Because our most powerful civil aviation radar can't even track them.

    Even countries with the most sophisticated air defence infrastructure can't, because the systems were never developed, nor can they be attuned to do so.

    Hence the justifiable panic along the eastern frontier.

    But the reaction of the government must now be to procure the most capable off-the-shelf solution, to locally protect strategic and economically important facilities, like the airports, the sea ports, the military bases, the power stations and the critical data locations.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 705 ✭✭✭Gary kk


    Adequate inadequate for what?

    The role has not been clearly defined as of yet.

    Anyway looks like it will be pushed down another 5 years given the statement Harris made.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,217 ✭✭✭sparky42


    air policing has been pretty much well flagged so I’m not sure why you say it hasn’t been. As for Harris’s comments, basically the same as flagged, LoA2 first and then ideally move forwards. A reminder that the AC currently has shortages and races increases in the helicopter squadrons and the extra CASA already.

    I would honestly prefer them to actually make progress on LoA2 now.



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