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Who are buying all the new houses?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The market is there alright.

    But you cant buy what is not for sale.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Planning is a factor, but the fact is even despite the planning issues almost 12,000 homes are being built in Dublin every year.

    Thats a lot of homes.

    The problem here is that barely any of that 12,000 ever make it to the private market for sale and the govt plays a large role in gobbling up those homes and stopping them hitting the market.

    This pushes prices upwards.

    If most of those 12,000 homes made it to the private market and the govt kept their hands off the stock, prices would stabilise and eventually start to fall.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I suspect most, if not all, of those people do not want to be labourers. Ireland's unemployment rate has been fairly steady for years now, all while private companies who can incentivise employment far more easily than the government are crying out for workers. There are skills and trades required to work in construction, you don't just hand someone a hardhat and a wheelbarrow.

    The govt is very poorly positioned to compete in a tight labour force because it simply can't offer salary incentives.

    The only govt strategy that is constricting homes is the stupid planning system and any attempts to change that are overwhelmingly unpopular.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The govt can contract work to building firms. It doesnt have to employ staff directly. It has the money to do whatever it wants.

    The potential labour force is expanding as the population increases. There is no reason why we cant grow the construction labour force and overhaul planning at the same time.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    And again we just get back to the labour force not being there.

    Ireland actually has a very high house building rate per capita. It is one of the highest, if not the highest, in Europe. The problems stem from a lack of construction in the decade from 09-19 and the reasons for that are myriad. It is also related to the type of construction with Ireland having the lowest rate of apartment living in Europe. We built ghost estates 50km from Dublin instead of building a proper city and because of that the construction industry cratered for a decade.

    We can only recover from that at a certain pace and the current pace, while insufficient to meet demand, is actually incredibly high.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,594 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    One of the problems, I have read, is that the housing situation is now so extreme that skilled construction professionals won't move here. We've dug ourselves into a hole and, even if the Government cared, would not know how to get us out of it.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The idea the government don't care is fascinating to me. It is regularly cited as a top issue in elections. Obviously they care.

    But as you point out it is not something they are not capable of solving overnight. Also, the solutions are incredibly unpopular locally.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,594 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    In response to the issue of building vs aquisition of social housing, it doesn't really matter.

    Contracting vs aquisition makes no difference in terms of resources used.

    If I want a cake, I can either tender for one to be made, or buy one off the shelf. In either case, much the same resources are used up and therefore not available elsewhere. If anything the off-the-shelf one will be cheaper.

    Same with social housing. A local authority can contract a firm to build social housing or purchase ready housing. It doesn't make a huge amount of difference and resources (labour, building materials, land etc.) are diverted and no longer available elsewhere (e.g. for private purcase).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,594 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    I don't think they care to the extent of doing much about it. They don't seem to have made the connection between unfocused immigration policy and housing shortages, for example.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Again, it is one of the most salient topics in elections. They have to care. The only reason they keep getting back into power is because the opposition proposals are so much worse.

    The immigration that people largely dislike is doing very little to the housing issue (IPAs, Ukrainians etc) as they are mostly in emergency accommodation. There is an incredibly complicated balance to be hit between immigration that our high-tech open economy relies on vs the housing issue - though I would also add the market is aiding this somewhat as companies are reluctant to expand here precisely due to the housing and transport situation. Simply stopping immigration won't solve the issue as housing won't get built in a downturning economy either.

    You can argue with the effectiveness of their measures and question the priorities, but I simply do not accept this casual argument that they "don't care".



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,594 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    However, it is possible to talk about an issue year after year but not really care about it. They do care about being reelected and are probably aware that housing is something that a growing portion of the electorate cares about, so we do get statements about it. But in terms of actually getting to grips with the problem, they don't really care.

    Like I said, if they cared, they would need to bring demand into the equation and the effect of Ireland's very high population growth, mainly by inward migration, which in turn is due to government policy.

    My challenge to you would be: where have you seen a government minister even suggesting that there's a connection?

    That's why I don't think the Government actually cares about solving the problem.

    Yes, they talk about wanting to solve the problem, but that is not the same as caring about solving it, let alone actually solving it. Caring would mean the've spent a bit of time at least thinking about it.

    We do have emergency measures: lots of money spent on HAP, RAS, leasing of social housing etc., but these are treating the symptoms (e.g trying to avoid mass homelessness) rather than the problem. These are dealing with a lack of thinking.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,389 ✭✭✭✭kneemos


    Housing shortages are an issue in half the developed world at the moment. The UK needs a million properties. Whatever spare labour there is internationally have their choice. Very little any Government can do about it.

    If we somehow did attract fifty or a hundred thousand construction workers they'd need housing also.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 107 ✭✭CatLick


    They say they care but they don't care enough to make hard choices around immigration, compulsory purchase, planning objections and planning restrictions. However this will affect more people than are actually affected by a housing shortage. So they won't do anything.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,389 ✭✭✭✭kneemos


    We need immigrants to fill the vacancies,help wanted notices up everywhere. Most of them come from the EU or the UK anyway or are granted work visas.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,599 ✭✭✭standardg60


    They don't care because they're not stopping people coming to the country to fill roles which are badly needed to grow the economy?

    The only people who complain about this are those who either don't understand how an economy works, or are just racist.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,920 ✭✭✭Buddy Bubs


    Good luck managing the 150k people out of work today on a building site!

    Either they're unskilled, lazy or genuinely unable to carry out physical work thats required. Theres good money in it and they'd be all over it if they really wanted to be there

    Build away it might make a dent in it but realistically the only way to not be talking about a housing crisis in 10 years time is for the population to decrease whether that be by people leaving or reducing the numbers coming in or probably a combination of both.

    Another downturn in economy and employment is the most likely way for that to happen im afraid

    There's a phase of houses launching at end of my road in October be interesting to see how quick they sell, 3 beds in the region of 500k id imagine.

    Tough time to be looking for accommodation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,599 ✭✭✭standardg60


    I missed this earlier. So the problem is not enough people coming here and at the same time the problem is people coming here.

    No wonder the default is best to blame the govt



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,264 ✭✭✭Exiled Rebel


    ACP recently refused planning for over 330 housing units in Fermoy. In short the planning inspector cited lack of playing fields in the plans despite this being a condition of the planning granted and the developer making commitments to honour this very condition.

    The best bit is the proposed development literally adjoins playings fields covering circa 20 acres which are open to the public (approximately 3 GAA sized pitches + a public footpath around the perimeter of the grounds)

    In essence, a single individual in Dublin made what seems to be a illogical recommendation about a proposed development in Cork and for reasons that seem unfathomable. It has taken the developer 4 years to get to this point. Word is he is walking away as he is **** sick of the bureaucracy.

    It would have eventually added another 1,000 or so people to the towns population of 6,500 and would have given local businesses a significant boost.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,594 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    Take some more time to think about it. We might need more of a specific group of workers, even though we need to reduce overall numbers. In other words, a more focused immigration policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭littlefeet


    Think about it we will send the nurses and medical staff back but keep the construction workers is that it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭littlefeet


    I can never understand how anyone thinks contracting a building company to build social housing verses buying social housing from a building company once it's built could be effective. All that would happen is building companies would switch to building social housing because financing it would be easier.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,584 ✭✭✭csirl


    The one thing that the Government can do is add some fairness to the market. At the moment the vast majority of housing is going to social housing (either directly or indirectly). This has squeezed the first time buyer and low income worker out of the market - which is unfair. They set quotas of 30% or whatever as the amount of social housing to be delivered in new developments. They should cap the % of new houses that are allowed to be purchased by local authorities and AHBs at this number. Allow the remaining 70% to be sold to private buyers so as that some sort of market exists.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    10% of a new development has to be social/affordable, not 30%



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭littlefeet


    It's ends up being much more that that, if builders/ developers were forced to do anything else, the marker would react by building more social housing and less open market housing because forward funding would be easier to get for social housing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,584 ✭✭✭csirl


    Thanks for ckarifying the %.

    The 10% social housing rule was brought in to ensure social housing would be part of a mixed community rather than being ghettoised. But surely tbe current reality of 90%+ social housing is contrary to the aims of this policy, especially in areas that are mostly social housing to begin with?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,594 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    It is largely optics as far as I can see. If a development was "always" going to be social housing, then prospective home buyers are less upset when the development is completed.

    If, on the other hand, the development was built for the open market, and then the State, via the local authority or housing body, buys several houses, then the private buyer thinks, "Hey, that could have been mine!" and then they complain to their TD.

    But it is really the same thing. It is the State diverting resources into social housing and away from the private market. Whether one or the other is pursued depends on the situation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,237 ✭✭✭hold my beer


    I've been told in the past that if it wasn't for the Govt buying them all, no apartments would be getting built, as the prices of construction are just too high and nobody could afford them. Not sure how true it is really.

    I do wonder why there's a block of 32 brand new units on Nutgrove Ave junction with Grange Rd lying completely empty the last year.

    Post edited by hold my beer on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The workforce can be expanded. We have a rapidly growing population and full employment.

    If we cant expand the labour force now, when can we?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭littlefeet


    Cormac Lucy has a bit in the Times saying too many Irish students are doing degrees of dubious value implying the should be directed to the trades, I wonder how many of his children are in the trades or is s it just other people children who should do construction trades?



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