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Who are buying all the new houses?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭littlefeet


    Without getting too conspiratorial you could argue it's a ponzi sceam. My news feed is full of planning permission turned down, planning permission appealed and granted. That must be keeping a whole industry of Planning consultants, Barristers, and similar in luctrive employment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 366 ✭✭Feets


    Last house I bought was for investment. New build. Day of sale ...alot of asian possibly Indians around looking at houses. Then I look at property price register to see...judging by the sold prices...that ALOT were bought by the state. Houses were priced north of 720k. Dublin area.

    So to summarise...investors...some irish coupls...indians and the state. No matter the price.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭littlefeet


    I put up CSO stats about who the buyers are. I think I'll take the CSO over David McWilliams. There are issues with houses the same or similar to ever English speaking country in the world, could the government do better of course they could, but the trumpian playbook of blame others and the government is your enemy isn't one of them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,424 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yea the whole process is fcuked, its all geared to keep inflating prices, so thats whats gonna happen, until….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,071 ✭✭✭crusd


    You do know that first time buyers dont just but new builds dont you? That new builds make up about 50% of the market. Its its this sector that is being monopolised by state agencies further exacerbating house price inflation and squeezing supply



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,071 ✭✭✭crusd


    You put up stats for all sales. Not new builds. Calling an apple and orange doesn't make it an orange



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 22,146 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    However evidence is not slowing what David McWillims is stating tgat the government is buyingn80% of new house being build. If this was the case you would be seeing complete estates full of a combination of social housing, housing agency houses etc. Generally in larger estates the council has an option of buying up to 20% of houses. The agencies may ve being more but it's probably in 20-30% total bracket by both

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,599 ✭✭✭standardg60


    Agreed. If FTBs accounted for 2/3 of total mortgage drawdown last year that's 8bn, and assuming half of that was on new builds that's 4bn. Placing a generous figure of 1bn spent by the state on new builds hey presto it's around 20%, exactly as allocated.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    I suspect it is more than 30% of new builds.

    Part V is 10% to 20% but the govt is sometimes buying up additional stock on top of this.

    There are whole new developments being purchased by AHBs or similar, including BTR developments.

    The 80% figure sounds high, but above 50% sounds very probable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,752 ✭✭✭enricoh


    Below is from the budget last year, dunno if all the charities like mcverry etc are included in it. Thats 13000 houses alone.

    Capital funding of €2.157bn (an increase of €257m on 2024) to deliver 10,000 new-build social homes (700 additional homes on 2024). under the Social Housing Investment Programme (SHIP), Capital Advance Leasing Facility (CALF) and Capital Assistance Scheme (CAS).

    AHB delivery of 1000 Cost Rental homes via €300m provided under the Cost Rental Equity Loan (CREL) mechanism (a decrease of €135m on the 2024 revised estimate).

    2,165 new social homes will be delivered through various leasing schemes (including Mortgage to Rent and Repair and Lease) delivered by local authorities and AHBs



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭littlefeet


    You are correct; I should have been clearer, but my point still stands: the narrative that no 'average' person can afford to buy a home in Ireland, particularly within commuting distance of Dublin or any major city, is not accurate and does not reflect reality.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,587 ✭✭✭csirl


    But thats what we are seeing. In my area a number of new housing developments seem to have been bought on bulk by the council or housing associations. None ever coming on the market for members of the public.

    There has also been an upsurge of second hand houses being bought by the council.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 29,815 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Very true.

    Until recently I lived in an end terrace/townhouse as part of a block of 4.

    2 of those were sold to the council and the third to a housing agency over the 7 years I lived there.

    As I said before on this topic, the Government/councils are now using people's own taxes to price them out of the rental/housing market. Charming!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,752 ✭✭✭enricoh


    Sweet Jesus, can the last person who thinks this is sustainable please turn off the lights!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭littlefeet


    He is peddling an agenda, define the city center? He claimed that some schools in the city center were closing but did offer any evidence. He is a self described socialist I'm always weary of anyone with an agenda. He does have a point though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Its been said many times but the problem is that too much of the govt funding goes to social housing and not enough to affordable or cost rental.

    Anyone earning an average salary is squeezed out from the market.

    Sure some middle income families would be better off getting lower paid jobs so they can qualify for social housing.

    12000 social homes planned by the state compared to just 1000 cost rental.

    This is not encouraging mixed developments or social mobility.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,599 ✭✭✭standardg60


    No one's going to be buying any houses given the latest house start figures for 2025, just over 8k so far.

    Something clearly is going very wrong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    It's been happening for years but the state,councils,AHBs are still buying up too much new private housing and converting it to social housing, instead of building its own social housing and leaving the private market to provide private housing.

    As long as this keeps happening, new housing stock will barely reach the open market and that tiny supply means prices will keep rising.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Whether they were building their own or buying private would make little difference. If building their own they would just be competing with developers on the labour market - just moves the problem further up the chain.

    They need to build denser and more importantly make planning more predictable so that it is easier to project labour/material needs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,391 ✭✭✭✭kneemos


    Not enough builders about. If they're building social housing for the Government private houses still aren't getting built.

    The key issue seems to be construction workers,plenty of planning already granted just waiting for someone to start them.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The govt could establish contracts with certain builders if they dont want to hire their own staff, but there's no reason why they cant expand the labour force beyond what it is today.

    We are growing by 100k people per year and have one of the fastest growing populations in the developed world.

    Adding a few hundred each year to the construction labour force should not be a problem and the govt have the money to pay big inflated wages to attract workers.

    This would give the private market security and stability as all new private builds would then hit the private market and a tipping point of increased supply will eventually bring prices down.

    I agree about more dense developments all round. For private and social homes.

    Govt should be building 33% social, 33% cost rental and 33% afforable, so the middle earners dont get squeezed out of the market, as is happening today.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    the govt have the money to pay big inflated wages to attract workers.

    The govt fundamentally can not do this as that is not how public wages work. They can upbid for private companies to do it for them, but again then they are just taking labour and resources from private developers.

    The govt also, absurdly, is in no better position when it comes to ridiculous delays in planning and a poor ability to accurately forecast resourcing needs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,391 ✭✭✭✭kneemos


    Delays in planning is a red herring. There's tens of thousands of properties in Dublin alone that have planning and are waiting for someone to build them



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The process being so incoherent and long is a problem. Because you can't realistically plan for when you will need the resources. Also it so frequently reducing density is an issue for completions vs resources.

    It is not particularly unusual that not every planning permission goes to completion for various reasons. This is the same argument as "why are there empty properties" - there should be empty properties in a properly functioning system, the problem is the level is way too low.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Yes they can pay private builders to build the govt homes and those private firms can hire more staff to cover the govt contracts.

    The private builders arent capped by staffing levels and they can charge the govt for all costs plus margin.

    We have the population increase to deliver a larger labour force and we still have 150k unemployed and of working age.

    All the levers are there to ramp up house building, they just need to be pulled.

    Planning needs a lot of leaning, I agree there, but even with all the delays there are still plenty of sites ready to go if we had the workers to progress them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,789 ✭✭✭Wildly Boaring


    The developers have turned off the tap.

    Lot of commencement notices last year were purely to avail of the development levy waiver.

    Now putting massive pressure on government for tax breaks or better. And they'll get it.

    Completions will be through the floor in 2025



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    They are all competing in the same pool though. Whether it is govt buying houses after completion or competing for the resources to build them it is going to have the same impact.

    You can't just say we have 150k unemployed so we can set them to building! That is obviously not how it works. Ramping up building takes time, and it is ramping up.

    Whether the state should be buying all the new housing for social housing or just leaving it to the private market is a very separate political discussion. It is basically deciding how to best treat a gangrenous wound that happened 10 years ago at this point though. Absent a time machine no solution is available.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,599 ✭✭✭standardg60


    If the govt paid big inflated wages to workers the private market would have to do same to keep them in the private market leading to even higher house prices.

    The problem is in planning and objections to said planning. It is taking years, and money, to resolve. The people who call for more housing, including politicians, are then those who object to it.

    Even if govt established a state building company there would be members of it objecting to it's own planning. The irony of nimbyism is people seeking to ease regulations for a dwelling in the garden for a son or daughter, whilst objecting to the development across the road.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,752 ✭✭✭enricoh


    Looks to me as though there is no market for building houses unless its the government buying them.

    The few that aren't for the government the plebs can outbid each other over. Are we like roadrunner n already over the cliff?!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    They dont need to compete from the same labour pool is the point. The population growth & a cash rich govt allows us to increase the labour force, if the govt decided to do it.

    Some of those 150k people could be labourers and some of the 100k people that arrive here each year could be also.

    Even 1% of that 250k people would provide a few thousand extra staff and that population bank expands literally every day.

    The govt is choosing not to do this and to take the easy option instead which is to cuckoo developments at the last minute from private developers, rather than establish its own funded social home building programme from an expanded labour force.

    The LDA could be expanded and given stronger output targets, yet by the govts own admission, the LDA is expected to make only a "minor contribution" to the social housing targets.

    This shouldnt be allowed happen and in the end the govt strategy constricts the number of homes that make it to the private market and in turn drives up prices.

    The evidence of this is in the article.



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