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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    The Commission on Housing published their findings, and gave analysis for the situation in 2024.

    You're wrong about the Housing Commission report, read it you don't believe me.

    The reason I appear to be obsessed with April 2022 figures is not only because that was both the date at which HC deficit applied - "as of April 2022, the best estimate of Ireland’s housing deficit was between 212,500 and 256,000 homes" - and the date of the census, which is the most comprehensive count of both the population and the housing stock at a given point in time.

    You're correct I am not citing an expert analysis, but I am citing CSO census data of the population count and housing stock count, and basic mathematics which cannot be refuted.

    I'm doing this because it is my belief that if you're trying to calculate the surplus or deficit in the stock of anything, the most intuitive way to do it is to do an actual count of what you already have, and use that as your starting point. It should be the basis for all calculations.

    I cannot cite an expert analysis, because not a single expert has ever (since 2011 census) actually given an opinion of the country's housing need that is based on the starting point of counting the existing housing stock and the existing population. This used to be the goto method for the calculation, which is not surprising if you think about it for even a nano second.

    Any home thats deliberately kept vacant is one thats not actively housing humans in the Irish housing market. It may as well not exist as housing stock.

    It may as well not exist? There is an obvious flaw in that logic, but if it is not immediately obvious just look to relatively recent history. This sort of thinking is one of the reasons that led to overbuilding and oversupply in 07/08.

    Investors only interested in capital gains were buying up properties and deliberately leaving them vacant, couldn't be bothered with the hassle of renting as long as paper value was shooting up.

    The levels of vacant property were so high that economists in their expert analysis started factoring in the investment demand for vacant property into housing demand forecasts - i.e we needed to build more houses than the population growth estimates required because people wanted to buy houses that nobody would live in. They "might as well not exist as housing stock" if the buyers didn't want to make them available to anybody to live in.

    The flaw in the thinking suddenly became a lot more obvious when the capital gains slowed down and the owners of vacant property became sellers of vacant property.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,046 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Of the 1731 new homes that were delivered since January this year, how many have been state purchased

    Where are you getting 1731 new homes delivered, I can't see it in the RTE piece

    Do we know at what point the forward order book turns into a sale. Would it not be included in total sales?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,046 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Looks like a very positive development. The state having the foresight to buy 70 acres of potential development land with motorway and future rail access, 10 minutes from circa 20k jobs in Raheen/Dooradoyle area

    I was highly skeptical of the directly elected mayor in Limerick, but Kudos to John Moran, he is making a difference

    Hopefully there is no Fianna fail shenanigans in the deal

    In other news Fianna Fáil TDs and councillors appear to have a new uniform to alert you of there presence

    68b95d084f9cc.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,046 ✭✭✭Villa05


    God loves a tryer

    This is how to do things

    The two units will be used for demonstration purposes in the city centre park, with feedback from the public used to inform how additional modular homes will be rolled out in Limerick.

    As part of his successful election campaign, Mayor Moran had pledged to bring through the so-called Smart homes



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,789 ✭✭✭tigger123


    "In other news Fianna Fáil TDs and councillors appear to have a new uniform to alert you of there presence"

    This made me genuinely laugh out loud.

    There's a massive disconnect between Government policy, the parties in power, and how the same parties behave in local authorities. Wouldn't be incredible if a directly elected mayor was able to bridge the gap somehow.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,046 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Great thought went into those uniforms. They pay homage to there cowboy origins as they morph into blueshirts. The Teflon has been completely banished sending a message to there former fallen leader



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,526 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Delayed response, but again, to sum up - you're posting only your own speculation, and don't have a single expert opinion that agrees with you.

    But we have leading politicians, housing bodies, and industry experts all in agreement on the opposite side, all stating we have a massive housing deficit, and giving numbers in close agreement to each other.

    Which would fairly clearly suggest they know more than you, and you are in fact wrong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,046 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Home construction activity falls again in August for the 4th month in a row, with the pace of decline increasing. The more homes the state pre funds/purchase, the less output from the developers.

    Why would you build for private buyers when the state is offering a far better package with private buyers taxes

    Astonishing state of affairs!



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Again, to sum up, I am not posting speculation. I am posting census numbers and simple mathematics.

    I have posed the question here repeatedly, and it always ends up the same, nobody can actually point out the flaw in my argument or calculations, other than to admit that they don't really understand themselves the numbers the experts are citing, but sure they're experts so they must be right.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,046 ✭✭✭Villa05


    That 70 acres has an interesting history

    43 of the 70 acres Sold for 6 million in the last bubble

    2013 Repurchased by former owner for 435k

    2025 The 70 acres sell for circa 4 million



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Hopefully there is no Fianna fail shenanigans in the deal

    Collins has form with land deals in Patrickswell. It's very much his neck of the woods. As a councillor he voted to sell council land to his wife without informing the other members of the council that his wife was the purchaser.

    You'd think that would might disqualify him from public office, but instead we now have him as a TD grinning like a cheshire cat over the council purchasing land in Patrickswell. I hope people checked out all the connections before hand.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Another day, another story about landlords leaving the market:

    "We believe landlords will continue to leave the market, exacerbating the lack of rental supply, unless they can see better returns and that is why we are calling for increased tax incentives for small landlords."

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2025/0914/1533340-landlords-estate-agents/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,854 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Thats a sharp farmer. Fair play, if only we had some people in the LDA/State with similiar sense - not the first time we've heard of that type of story either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,042 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Rents have never been higher, the average in our country is now €2,055 per month. Any landlord that can't make a return on that figure is clearly not a capable landlord and shouldn't be in the market in the first place

    I'd imagine it has more to do with the instant and lucrative return they will get from selling the property



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Lots of people are restricted by RPZ and can't get market rates. Average doesn't mean anything to a landlord getting paid way less. Generally the government are 50% of the rental income for private rentals



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,042 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    The whole country is a rent pressure zone since June though. There's about half a million rental homes in Ireland and about 150k of them are council owned so that's closer to 30% than 50%

    If the average is 2k and there are some getting way less than means there's some landlords getting way more.

    €2k a month for sitting on your hole is good money in any sense of the word



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,788 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Even if you pay income tax on rental proceeds at 52%, it is hard to see how you wouldnt be making at least 3% yield, before accounting for house price increases to boot.

    There is plenty of easy money to be made. Much more too if your run it through your pension.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    If the government wanted to see a flood of rentals on the market overnight they could spend almost no money on three simple measures;

    (1) Scrap RPZs and give individual or smaller landlords the same tax advantage that the big players can engineer with their complicated financing arrangements (ie reduce the income tax the smaller guys pay).

    (2) Make it very easy to kick out tenants (eg tenant database like a credit register or else just bring in the Gardai; it shouldn't be difficult to imagine how to enforce a requirement to not trespass on private property).

    (3) Declare a COVID style emergency to housing which focuses on supporting anything which results in more new homes built even if it means preventing objections to the planning process for a year or two, with the housing authorities told to grant permission unless there are serious issues with the development (shouldn't be that difficult for a policy maker to draft a wide brief).

    It is baffling that the party of landlords won't do something which would help its voter base and the younger generations. What's the saying by Lord Bono "running to stand still" - they are constantly tinkering and blustering but changing nothing meaningfully.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 358 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    If you have to buy a place to rent out the last 5 or so years, it would be tough to be making a decent yield as a small investor given the way prices have been going. I assume.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,046 ✭✭✭Villa05


    I hope people checked out all the connections before hand.

    The problem with Ireland is that the connections being checked was probably the reason these deals go ahead

    Looking after there own, not the country

    Post edited by Villa05 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,042 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Scrap RPZs

    We had no RPZs a few years ago and the landlords were raising rents by up to 30%, a return to that lawlessness can't be allowed to take place

    Give individual or smaller landlords the same tax advantage (as bigger ones)

    Small landlords can offset their tax with pension contributions and have a social security net because of the taxation they pay.

    Make it very easy to kick out tenants

    Kick out a tenant that refuses to pay a higher rent because, like many tenants, they can't afford it.

    Without increasing supply, doing any of the above will make homes that are currently on the market or on the market in future more expensive again and you will only roll around with the same problems as before and probably increase homelessness to a large degree



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Then show what your calculations are. Not aware you can make a rental property go through as a pension so explaining that would be nice too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,788 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    If you have a self administered pension fund you can buy rental investment property through that, and all the rent received is tax free since it goes straight to your pension fund.

    I am surprised you are not aware of this, to be frank.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    You didn't answer the first part. Can you move an existing property you own into your pension like that? Does it have any costs?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,788 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    I think you need to consult an accountant on this. I am not giving you personal pension advice on boards.

    The general advice for would-be small landlords is to buy the property through your pension, and have the rent pay into the pot and be tax exempt (you do need to apply to revenue for this exemption from rental income tax, but it is routinely granted).

    With this approach your rental yield could be 5/6%. Maybe more depending on prices. And your pension also benefits from the capital gains on the house.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,584 ✭✭✭straight


    That's Just bad advice and alot of effort for 5 or 6% vs leaving your money in a standard pension fund.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,788 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    No, bad advice would be investing in a BTL and paying 52% tax on rental income for a ~3% yield.

    IF you're going to do it, do it through a pension fund for the tax relief.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 6,584 ✭✭✭straight


    That's Just worse advice. Better off to own the property yourself and keep your pension seperate.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,788 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    In a SSAP you do own the property, and can sell at any stage. You just cant live in the property yourself, or let your uncles wifes son live in it for free.

    but if having use of the property for relatives is your motivation, then you shouldn't be a landlord in the first place.



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