Presidential Election 2025

I thought that was a criticism of FG myself.

That's Independent Ireland.

Though 'organised' is very much a relative term.

Irish Times (Pat Leahy) questioning Sinn Fein “dithering” on the Presidential Election.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025/09/13/pat-leahy-mary-lou-mcdonalds-rte-interview-about-the-presidency-was-more-revealing-than-she-intended/

Paywall removed-

https://archive.is/CDegd

”The language used by McDonald in her Morning Ireland interview was revealing. Discussing the presidency with Mary Wilson, McDonald used the first person pronoun (I, me, my) 32 times. This was a decision that she was framing very much as a personal choice of hers, not a decision of the party’s “collective leadership”.

“Here’s what the Andersonstown News – widely thought to be familiar with the thinking of Belfast Sinn Féin – said in a recent editorial: “The political Pooh-Bahs in Leinster House are sweating profusely this week, and not because a heatwave is on the way but rather because a certain Mary Lou McDonald is pondering a run at the Áras ... We think she certainly should throw her hat in the ring.”

The main differences are that there is no single government endorsed candidate, the combined FF/FG is lower than it was in 2018, the legacy media landscape has changed with the sale of much IN&M to Mediahuis and Communicorp radio stations to Bauer, and the government vote is potentially split.

While FF and FG transfer well, FF/FG voters may well just vote for their party candidate and leave it at that. The percentage of Don't Knows in the most recent opinion poll was larger than the support for any cadidate. Until SF makes its move, it is difficult to estimate which of the government candidates will do better. Humphreys isn't a good candidate and Gavin looks like a smaller version of Martin when standing beside him (two bald men). The GAA vote could give Gavin an edge while Humprheys looks likely to end up on the FG party support of about 17% unless her campaign gains momentum.

You seem to want MO'N to run for president. Would you vote for her?

Too early to tell with HH. 

A bit to go on here

I wonder if this was a publishing mistake with the numbers for Kelleher and Connolly mixed because otherwise it implies Kelleher voters transferred heavily to Connolly ahead of everyone else.

Apart from it being a RedC poll based on a panel rather than face to face polling, FF appears to be the stronger party and FG is in trouble with Humphreys. With a single FF candidate, it should be polling better than FG. The sample period and changed candidates mean that the poll results are problematic.

True. The presidency effectively sidelines politicians for seven years and was traditionally used as a retirement home for faithful party politicians (mainly FF as FG never won the presidency). Even in 1990, Robinson winning was more of a accident than a plan. McAleese wasn't a TD. Higgins only won in 2011 because of RTE's use of the fake tweet and Gallagher was polling at 40%. It was safe for FF and FG to endorse him in 2018 as he would not have caused a bye-election.

With both FF and FG not having enough TDs to form a government, each TD's seat is valuable. That probably influenced some of their thinking with FG getting Humphreys out of retirement and FF endorsing a candidate who could just as easily be an FG candidate. The support for MLMcD as the SF candidate seems to be coming from FFG supporters and that would take an SF TD out of the Dail. Connolly, if she won, might also cause a bye-election. Kelleher, if it was still in the race and won would not cause a bye-election.

Worse. It is effectively two polls. The first is the responses from the panelists when Kelleher and MLMcD were still potential candidates. The second is with those three excluded. Without knowing the number of panelists who voted in the first part and the numbers who voted in the second, it is very difficult to draw any reliable conclusions other than FF candidates show the most support.