Presidential Election 2025

He also believes Simon Harris is Taoiseach.

Steen may get votes from a small conservative demogaphic. The way that FG is trying to keep her and other independents off the ballot paper may be seen by the electorate as a move by a third place party that is uncertain about the popularity of its own candidate.

FG's campaign got Bidenised when McGuinness dropped out on health grounds and Humphreys is the Kamala Harris of this election. Steen would probably not win unless there is a massive vote to punish FF/FG. And that vote would be more likely to go to an SF candidate or Connolly. FG, on current polling, is more likely to provide transfer votes to Gavin.

Since 2011 when FF was only on 20 seats an electorally toxic, its resurrection has been at the expense of FG In that time, FG lost half of its 2011 Dail seats (76 to 38). And it might even lose the presidency to FF after starting out with a poll-topping candidate. Instead, FG is trying to keep independents off the ballot paper while FF plans on getting its candidate into the Aras.

Not sure that there is a likelihood to vote question in the Sindo/Ireland Thinks poll. The 2018 election only had a 43.9% turnout, I think. The only want that a government endorsed candidate like Higgins ciould have won is in a lacklustre campaign with bland candidates and a low turnout.

It may also be too early for a likelihood to vote question because people really only make up their minds in the last few weeks of the campaign. Possibly half of the DKs may not vote. The Ireland Thinks methodology is panel based as is RedC's methodology. It would be necessary to compare the DK % the results of the Irish Times/Ipsos-B&A poll which uses face to face polling to get a better idea.As a rule of thumb, Ireland Thinks and RedC poll results resemble each other and Ipsos-B&A tend to differ.

Martin McGuinness got over twice the votes of FG's Gay Mitchell in 2011. In 2018, SF ran Ni Riada and it was the correct thing to do because otherwise it would have been a coronation of the government endorsed candidate, Higgins.

SF was also movintg towards the centre Left at the time and Ni Riada would not have been out of place as a Labour candidate. SF started to shift towards the centre Left when MLMcD became leader. Labour and FF had abandoned the centre Left part of the political spectrum. Even though Labour's supporters in the media expected a resurrection of Labour in the subsequent GE, it didn't happen. SF had to run a candidate in 2018 certain in the knowledge that its candidate would not win. FG, with a better candidate, might have won in 2011. Instead, it chose Gay Mitchell and the rest is history. In 88 years, FG has never won the presidency. Even Labour won it twice.

FG should have run a candidate in 2018 as it would have shown the electorate that it was still a major party. Instead, it gave a clear run to SF and that paid off with the 2020 GE when SF beat FG into third place.SF also beat FG in 2024. With McGuinness, FG had a strong candidate. With Humphreys, there is the risk that an SF candidate could poll better and Humphreys' votes could be nothing more than transfer fodder for the FF's candidate.

Could SF's candidate outpoll Humphreys? It is something that must be giving FG supporters nightmares. If it happens, it might even be used to effect a long overdue regime change in FG.

FG is trying to keep her and other independents off the ballot paper may be seen by the electorate as a move by a third place party that is uncertain about the popularity of its own candidate.

And how would similar moves by SF (highly likely) and FF (virtually certain) be seen by the electorate?

FG is trying to keep independents off the ballot paper while FF plans on getting its candidate into the Aras.

So if FF also instructed its councilors not to facilitate independent candidates, would that mean it had also given up on getting its candidate elected?

If SF did it, it would be seen by the electorate as a sign of weakness. FF tried to stop by-elections when Cowen was leader. It built up resentment against FF. Attempting to limit candidates is not a good thing because the less supported candidates would be filtered out in the voting process. FG is a weakening party and the Irish Times/Ipsos-B&A poll had it around 17% in its last poll. FG needs to be convincing voters to vote for Humphreys not trying to exclude voters.

FG's last two "leaders" have been disasters for the party. Varadkar led FG to one of its worst GE defeats ever. Harris wasn't even elected leader. FF probably can't believe its luck as it gains support and seats from FG. If FF still has some of its populist instincts, it will not follow FG's move and welcome the opportunity to contest the election with independents because some of them might give lower preferences to the FF candidate. Beyond the party supporters, it is all about transfers. Reducing the possibility of transfers is stupid.

Delahunty is just after a career in trolling/grifting/Ian O’Doherty-type contributor to daytime chat shows, however it is rather strange what game Sheridan is playing.

He reminds me of this guy, who was promoted a lot in 2011 - then disappeared.

https://irishelectionliterature.com/tag/dylan-haskins/

Surely, if Sheridan is so smart and successful he could read the room, or even look into what the Presidency is and how to become one?

How did he think he could be nominated or that people would vote for, in political terms, a stranger?

I would think so, but he would be forced in camera opportunities to stand beside MM silently, as the latter does.

His PR people may even advise it, it has been FF strategy for 20 years.

It certainly would be picked up upon.

This was a mistake by Emer Higgins. Its an image entirely of her creation. She had that photo as her profile and then added two! overlays… She should explain and apologise for it.