Presidential Election 2025

I believe he is still in the Air Corps.

True, but the army were often accused (on ground level anyway) of having disgust and distrust of British army, sympathetic, understandably, towards the Northern Irish against Britain. I mean, they are supposed to be Irish soldiers.

He might also be too young and not fully establishment-orientated to care.

That's the problem when you believe that opinionators have some special insight on elections. The most recent opinion poll had the Don't Knows in this election at 28%. That was larger than the support of any party. There has been a succession of articles about Connolly and things like Syria. The problem for FF and FG is that those articles may have little effect. This is because many of those voting for Connolly may be ideologically opposed FF/FG. Times have changed since FF and FG got over 80% of the votes in GEs.

A few articles in the Dublin media will probably not change any minds even if they are read. The Irish Times is very much the "establishment" viewspaper. The nightmare scenario for FG is that Humphreys, though popular within FG, may become another Gay Mitchell.

Regards…jmcc

When a candidate only appeals to members of a party, the GE support %s can be a good proxy for potential support. The reason Higgins was elected in 2018 is because he was the FF/FG candidate. They endorsed him and did not run their own candidates against him as they wanted to save money for the upcoming LEs, Euros and GE. The turnout in 2018 was down 12% and less than half the electorate even bothered to vote.With McGuinness, FG had a reasonably good candidate.

Regards…jmcc

The voter turnout in 2018 was 43.9%. Higgins self-nominated in 2018. He was endorsed by FF and FG and also Labour.

With a candidate who is only popular within a party (Humphreys), the most recent GE support in opinion polls can be used as an indication (proxy) for potential support. The main problems for FG at the moment is the 28% Don't Knows in the most recent opinion poll ad the fact that FF and SF have not yet announced candidates. At the moment, it is just Connolly versus Humphreys as no other candidates have the necessary support.

Regards…jmcc

Billy Kelleher has declared. What a unique opportunity, to have a Cork President and a Cork Taoiseach. The country should be so honoured. My head is swelling with pride😋.

Perhaps you missed the drama of the 2011 presidential election, the contract non-renewals, the media coverage of the fake tweet, the RTE enquiries, the BAI ruling and RTE settling a case taken against it by Gallagher.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/1219/928417-sean-gallagher-rte/

Regards…jmcc

you should show where there is direction of editorial towards a party or candidate before peddling conspiracy theories about same

yes his job as Chief of Operations for the IAA.

Good to have you around to keep us informed

When will the election take place and when will the date for the election be set.

Interesting that Gavin is apparently going for it.

I think people are leaning into stereotypes a bit much regarding the GAA link though.

1. There's no evidence of a homogenous GAA bloc vote in Ireland that will disregard all previous politics and opinions just to ensure a GAA-related person will get elected. If there is, where can it be seen? Several GAA figures have been elected alright, but plenty also haven't.
2. Gavin was in charge of the Dublin team which went on the most successful run in football championship history, which obviously earns plaudits from Dubs. But anyone not from Dublin isn't really going to like him for being in charge of the team which repeatedly hammered them (in the case of my county Meath), broke their hearts (Mayo) or denied them the championship which is rightfully theirs (Kerry). I don't see this improving with time either like Micko's Kerry or Cody's Kilkenny. There was (and still is) a lot of ill will towards Dublin regarding their success. Look at any old GAA threads from the 6 in-a-row period and you'll see endless talk of how Dublin were killing the game and were only winning because they have an unfair advantage instead of respect or congratulations to Dublin.
3. The FRC has obviously been a success too, but I don't get the impression there's a GAA-wide idolisation of Jim Gavin as a result. He's obviously being credited for it (and not unreasonably) but outside some journalists I've not heard anyone praise Jim Gavin when discussing the new rules. Even so, would that really make anyone think he should be President?

That makes it possible that Connolly's support has peaked

Don't know how much store you set by the odds but she's already out to 9/2 with bet365, the bookies that seem to be tracking the race most closely, behind Humphreys and Gavin. Humphreys drifting too btw, looks like Gavin will be favourite if and when he locks down the nomination.