Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Don't be so disingenuous. My comment about Russian misinformation clearly directed at your previous post which I referenced. Classic Kremlin smoke and mirrors tactic - "how could I be spreading Russian misinformation… this guy's Ukrainian", completely ignoring the post to which my response was aimed.

Also good to see the classic Kremlin approach to discussion of picking one element of an article which could be seen to tally with your claims, to somehow mean that every element of your claim is therefore correct. "Ah, you see, they also agree that the clouds are white. So my claim that the sky is green is obviously correct".

The whole point of your original post was THE NUMBER. Has anyone suggested that Ukraine has zero casualties? Obviously not. Therefore the question is, what is THE NUMBER. Which you push as being 1,700,000, based on, well… I think we all know what.

"I review a lot of media"… I'd say you do alright, and cherry pick what floats your boat.

The reference to meat waves is not as accurate as it once was. A lot Russian gains these days are attributed to tiny infiltration groups that are proving hard to keep a lid on. Walking through open fields in groups of 2 and 3 with such a long frontline they inevitably find gaps. This is, as opposed to the same 100 meat sacks on a single vector. The Russian tactics have moved on a little. That said it is still the case that for every 2-3 that make it through and find a weak point in the defence the other 98 are still getting chewed to bits.

I'm more cautious on Russian claims than you are then. I allow that the Russians could be entirely lying about carrying out a hack, and then screenshots could just be made up. But your debunking article concedes the hack happened and the screenshots of the personnel records at least seem genuine.

As for my Ukrainian source, his account of the UAF being exhausted, reserves gone and brigades down to 30% manpower is independent information which aligns with the Russian claims of very heavy losses in the UAF. All the indications, from multiple sources confirm the UAF has severe manpower issues. Which they shouldn't have unless they're taking heavy losses over the past 3.5 years.

If they modify it, then it would falsify the data and it would be easily disproved by showing the vast majority of the subjects are alive/unwounded/still in service.

What I mean by independent verification is people going through the records and confirming the person is real/existed, did serve in the UAF and there is some public record which confirms the loss. I expect there will be some administrative errors in the reports, but if its genuine then it should be largely accurate to public data.

That’s a fair point they have switched to more dispersed suicide attacks, so we see a couple to a handful of men out of dozens attempts infiltrate raise a flag and take a picture only to be wiped out as is mentioned in the ISW report I linked

But they don’t have the mass needed to hold the ground so we seeing rapid counterattacks and erm cauldrons where these sods are put to rest

For months now ISW and other commentators pointed out that Russia simply doesn’t have the armor left to exploit any breakthroughs, they managed to piss against a wall their Soviet legacy in repeat suicide bum rushes

According to Gallup polling from earlier this month, only 24% of Ukrainians agree with you and want to fight on until victory. 69% want to negotiate peace. But it is Ukrainians who are on the front lines, so that might explain it.

That would mean something if you're responses were part of a debate, but they're not. They're rebuttals of unquestionably obvious Russian backed pro genocide accounts that Boards.ie is knowing making revenue off with traffic from all the rebuttals.

It's sick. Would boards allow posters argue that Palestinians don't really exist? Yet Boards repeatedly allow pro Ukraine genocide on here and call it "debate".

It's bullshít and I hope Boards gets prosecuted for knowingly platforming it.

In 2022, when Boards was in a much healthier condition, they collectively banned and blocked these bad faith serial offenders before - but yeah with the Boards decline they've opened up the gates to (I suspect) boost some traffic and engagement

Difficult to argue against because it's easy to rationalise with "free speech". Also another cheap tack is the "if their views are wrong, simply demonstrate it" - but that doesn't address the nature in which it's delivered.

Most solid history and science forums clamp right down on this type of crankery, but yeah I get that it's harder here, especially with an ailing site.

I am not "framing" it anyway. Gallup polled Ukrainians recently - they asked them if Ukraine should fight on until victory, or if Ukraine should negotiate peace. 69% wanted to negotiate peace. Only 24% agreed with the view that Ukraine had to fight on.

The Ukrainians are not children. Despite the restrictions on free media in Ukraine, they're vastly better informed about the war and its consequences that people are in Ireland. The BK interview was given to Ukrainian media - probably very few people in Ireland will ever hear about it. And not only are Ukrainians better informed about the consequences of the conflict, they are the ones suffering those consequences. And only 24% of them favour this total war to victory dogma expressed so often.

69% of them agree with the people demonised by the pro-war people for saying Ukraine should seek to negotiate with the Russians. And lets be clear - that doesn't make the 69% pro-Russian, or victims of Russian disinformation or Kremlin talking points, or bots, etc. The 69% probably includes large numbers who are just as anti-Russian as Krotevych.

But they're making a decision about what is in the best interest of their own country and their own people. And its not to fight until the death as some claim they have to.

Nothing you say makes any objective sense when you step back from the dodgy online publications and Twitter accounts.

3.5 years into a war started by one of the world's strongest militaries whose aim was to take Ukraine, decimate its military capabilities, overthrow its government and turn it into a vassal state.

Of course there will have been significant casualties on the Ukrainian side in firstly stepping up to the Russians, then pushing them back, and now containing them.

We've seen the data, the countless reports, images and videos of destruction of the Russian military machine.

We see them neutered - their tank capacity disappeared. Their air power non existent. Their navy hiding.

We see the lines held. The desperate efforts of the Russians, whose leaders have no problem conscripting as many of the nation's poor and imprisoned as they like, to press forward having almost zero effect.

We see precision strikes and raids by the UAF. We see Russia strike civilian infrastructure time after time.

We see Russia lean on Iranian production and technology and North Korean soldiers and equipment.

We see a neutered Russian press.

We see a Ukrainian population standing firm behind their government and military.

And you expect us to swallow the word salad pictures you try to paint of things going terribly wrong for Ukraine. 1,700,000 casualties? Can't get enough men to hold the lines? Lines collapsing every week? Nobody happy with leadership?

It would be pretty hard to hide a Ukrainian collapse. We can see and will continue to question the motives of people who post misinformation which just so happens to without fail talk up the Russian position and portray the Ukrainians as on the point of collapse.

I'm pretty sure that most of those Ukrainians would not support negotiations that are incredibly favorable to Russia... That's exactly what you want.

There are two "added value" components to Ukraine's strikes on the refineries:

1. regardless of what anti-protest measures are in place, and regardless of what fuel the military use, if the guys and girls who work in the factories that supply them (and all the other services that depend on petrol-based transport) literally cannot get to work because they have no fuel then there'll be nothing to put in the back of a diesel-power Ural truck.
2. If the refineries can't store and refine what's coming out of the ground, Russia has no choice but to export it or shut the well down with the non-neglible risk of not being able to open it up again. Excess supply for export - assuming there are buyers - means lower prices. Lower prices means sooner or later Russia will start selling off the family silver (to the Chinese?) at which point the downward socio-economic spiral will intensify.

It is all a bit like the dregs of the bathwater circling the drain alight.

They should have opened 3 or 4 plants this size 2 years ago but it's better then nothing. I think I read 350k shells a year is the starting point but that it could increase.

What law do you think is being broken here?