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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,763 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I'm not disputing there are issues with rental regulations for LLs, nor am I ignoring what is happening at all. Landlords are selling as they always have done, possibly even at a slightly higher level, I don't know because as far as I know we don't have the data for that, or certainly haven't seen it. Have you?

    What I'm disputing is that there is a mass exodus from the market and this should be cause for panic. The most reliable data we have doesn't support that thesis as far as I can see.

    Nothing you have said has convinced me otherwise, it's all entirely anecdotal.

    My main beef with this whole discussion is the rush to dismiss data from the likes of CSO/RTB as not worth paper it is printed on, citing vested interests such as SherryFitz as evidence that the CSO can't count. It's absurd and all too prevalent unfortunately.

    Thats what I meant by never let the data get in the way of a good narrative. It's blinding us to identifying and thus solving the root causes of the bigger problems.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,301 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Why are you asking what I have seen when you dismiss what I am saying by calling it anecdotal? I have decades of experience and local knowledge for many areas of Dublin. Through this I know which houses are rentals and I know plenty of landlords. Older landlords are selling up properties they planned to have family inheriting. Lots of reasons for this but primarily government polices made them want to leave or at least a large factor.

    I also have decades of experience with statistics and data but it doesn't take that experience to know that using just a count of something increasing doesn't mean that the in the end that means more is being provided. I have shown that increasing tenancies doesn't mean more is provided for renters and without the context of overall population increase and all housing stock matters. If there are difficulties getting a place to rent and rent is going up that should matter. More rentals housing fewer people is a problem as is higher rents for the new places while the old cheaper rentals come out of the market



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,476 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The tenants have bought the home, so there are still only 2 rentals?

    Unless the council bought the houses and the tenants rent from the council now?

    It makes perfect sense for a landlord to do this however, as its the only way they can charge market rents, at least for a very short period!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,694 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    tenant in situ involves selling to a local authority



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,460 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    Why are you asking what I have seen when you dismiss what I am saying by calling it anecdotal?

    They were saying that haven't seen data, have you? Not anecdotes, actual facts and figures.

    Your knowledge is good and helps you in the market, it does not give us an overview of the market as a whole. You know older people selling to have family inheriting, this has happened for decades, nothing new there. Just showing that you're now of an age where this is becoming more common within your circles, similar to my wedding analogy earlier.

    I have shown that increasing tenancies doesn't mean more is provided for renters and without the context of overall population increase and all housing stock matters.

    You haven't shown this though, you gave an anecdote about someone you knew, that is one instance. I can provide a counter anecdote to that. Neither of these prove anything. Unless you have actual evidence and data to back it up it's irrelevant.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,476 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Indeed.

    There can be an increase in the actual number of landlords, but a decrease in the percentage of the population availing of rental properties and a decrease in the number of tenants renting property.

    Population increase and rental household size would be two obvious reasons for this outcome.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,970 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Properties purchased close to the peak of the last bubble so the sums made sense. Double the rent on the new property would still be bargain territory when compared to “current market rents"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 303 ✭✭Hontou


    This is correct. I have been in the rental market as a landlord for nearly 30 years. I always had great relationships with tenants and kept rent low for those that looked after the properties well. I have many adult children and the plan was to keep the properties for them. Not a chance. I'm getting rid of the properties purely because recent letting legislation encourages rogue tenant behaviour. Considering 99.9% of tenants are great, this is a terrible pity. But .1% is too great a risk for the years of trouble it creates.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,301 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Fair enough I did misunderstand the question. You however are making some assumptions about my age and what I am saying. Firstly my parents have rented out property for decades not me. I am not an old person seeing people my age selling off rentals due to their age. Traditionally when a rental property was sold it was to another landlord who would do it up a bit and then continue to rent it. The landlord selling it would normally buy another rental, mostly because they actually inherited from a parent and wanted a property with less maintenance and they can sell without CGT. Many landlord children grow to hate the the rental because they were dragged down to redecorate and do maintenance work. This is how it worked, now people are selling and taking the hit on CGT and not buying another rental. The rental property is being sold to a private buyer and in older areas that means there is less to rent around there. This is a big change to the market and worth noting separately to an increase in tenancies.

    When I say I shown how it happens that is what I mean. It is not just an anecdote it is an explanation of why overall tenancies doesn't matter and how easily looking at one figure doesn't show reality. There can be an increase in tenancies and a mass exodus of landlords and I have shown how. Are you deny that?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,460 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    Do you have anything other than anecdotes to add? You do realise they're basically useless for backing up a point.

    There can be an increase in tenancies and a mass exodus of landlords and I have shown how. Are you deny that?

    There can be, but you haven't shown that at all. Unless I missed your sources and data to support your hypothesis?

    The only independent reliable figures that we have show that there isn't a mass exodus of landlords.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,301 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Please provide the information you claim shows how many landlords have left the market. As far as I can tell the only sign is an increase of tenancies which doesn't prove landlords didn't leave



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,460 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    I never claimed to have figures to show how many left the market, that was yourself and other's saying they are "fleeing the market".

    The only independent figures we have show that Private tenancy numbers rose by 7.6% annually to 240,964 in Q4 2024, while private landlord numbers rose by 4.5% annually to 105,594

    https://rtb.ie/about/news/residential-tenancies-board-releases-directors-quarterly-update/

    Now, if you have any figures to disprove these to show that landlords are fleeing the market, feel free to provide them?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,301 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    So you have no data and I am pointing how easily those figures don't tell the reality of the situation which is neither good for landlords nor tenants. You want to ignore what I see fine but it doesn't mean I am wrong. There certainly has been a massive change in how rentals are handled and sold. I can only assume you at least agree selling a rental has changed?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,460 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    The only figures that we have state that tenancies and landlord numbers have increased.

    You have no data at all to produce to back up your anecdotal hypothesis, do you?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,301 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    You have no data proving me wrong but more importantly you aren't acknowledging how the data can be misleading. You can't even give an opinion selling of rentals has changed



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,460 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    You have no data at all.

    I and @hometruths have given you actual evidence and data that disprove your hypothesis that landlords are "fleeing the market". Just because you can't accept it is irrelevant. The figures are there in black and white.

    https://rtb.ie/about/news/residential-tenancies-board-releases-directors-quarterly-update/

    Unlike yourself, I don't give my opinions on things that I'm not familiar with and have no evidence to support.

    Opinions are irrelevant compared to data.

    If you cannot provide any to back up your anecdotal based hypothesis, there's not much more there to say.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,301 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    I very familiar with both the rental market and the illustration and examination of statistics. You are speaking on stats can I ask what is your great understanding on this for you, seeing as you don't talk on things you have knowledge of?

    If 54% of the reasons for eviction is selling the property what does that tell you? Is there data available for the last 40 years for the the percentage of evictions for the sale of the property?

    Do you only believe something if there is a stat for it?

    If you can't grasp the concept of rental sales needing to change due to relatively recent rules because there is no data on it so be it. It doesn't make financial sense to buy a previous rental property to rent out again in the RPZ so you would be a fool to say it hasn't made a change



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,460 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    Fair play to you on your knowledge of the rental market, I can't dispute that, but when it comes to stats I'd reconsider this statement as you're ignoring very, very basic statistics as they don't fit your agenda.

    It tells us that 54% of landlords who are evicting are selling. These selling means that specifically these landlords are leaving the market. It doesn't disprove that there was still an increase of 4.5% in landlords last year.

    We're going around in circles here. An increase no matter the number is an increase, really not sure why this is so hard for you to grasp.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,301 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    I have already explained why an increase in tenancies does not equal an increase in those being housed. So an increase is not that simple as without the numbers housed in these tenancies doesn't give you a full picture. Without considering the increase in the property market over all and the population increase the figures can be very misleading.

    Very simple 100 3 bed houses with an average of 4 people means 400people are housed are sold to private households in an areas.

    150 2bed apartments with 2 people on average living in them are built and rented leading to 300people housed.

    Tenancies are up 50% but the number of people housed is 100people less or 25% less.

    This is certainly happening to an extent to have an effect on looking at the total number of tenancies it gets more complicated when other factors are added. You don't have any data to say what type of property is being sold or the sizes of the new tenancies. It is simply an incomplete view to only look at the increase in tenancies and landlords.

    I have decades of experience of the rental market that doesn't have stats of any great detail. You can choose not to believe me when I explained the massive difference in selling a rental now. You don't just not believe me you ignored the change in rules and the effects. You class everything I say as anecdotal but I have actually explained why your simplistic view has issues just from a mathematical view. You don't really know the rental market if you rely on stats you don't understand. On my own road there were 12, 3-4 beds rental properties there is now one 3bed rented. If a tenant wants to live here they basically can't but there is a block of apartments not far away but rent is much higher. No front and back garden, no separate kitchen along with no shed/garage for storage. Tenants gets less for more money. What you also get is when one of the new rentals is sold it will leave the rental market. Maybe these new landlords are just going to flip them in a few years as opposed to landlords that have already provided rentals for decades



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,460 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    I have decades of experience of the rental market

    Earlier you said you didn't? Firstly my parents have rented out property for decades not me.

    You're getting quite mixed up here.

    Ok for the last time the anecdotes of your road are meaningless.

    Both the number tenancies and the number landlords have increased.

    Private tenancy numbers rose by 7.6% annually to 240,964 in Q4 2024, while private landlord numbers rose by 4.5% annually to 105,594

    https://rtb.ie/about/news/residential-tenancies-board-releases-directors-quarterly-update/

    I'm out now, as you're just ignoring actual evidence and data and providing nothing but hypothetical scenarios and anecdotes.

    Maybe someone else will have an easier time getting you to understand basic stats.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,301 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    I may not own the properties but I have also managed them for 2 decades . You don't seem to get things can be mutually inclusive.

    You don't have to agree with my view but it just seems you don't understand which is a completely different issue.

    In the last example tenancies and landlords went up but less were housed. You simply don't understand this as concept so can be easily fooled by figures. It is easy to see how the government can fool the general public with such fundamental issues of logic. Maybe you will understand it as shrinkflation on property and less options



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,460 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    We have been discussing the statement that “Landlords are fleeing the market” which you and others have made, nothing else.

    All evidence proves this to be untrue but now you decide to randomly change the goalposts to amount of people housed, not what was being discussed at all.

    Can you admit you were wrong and the amount of landlords is increasing as the stats show? Ignore people housed as that’s a separate discussion for another day.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,301 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,400 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Its really quite simple. The initial stated opinion was "landlords are fleeing the market in large numbers", which was disagreed with by multiple posters.

    You jumped in to declare that landlords most definitely are fleeing the market based on your own anecdotal evidence (and seemed unaware of what the word "anecdotal" means when questioned), repeatedly.

    Numerous posters replied with actual hard data, with sources, from reliabile national level institutions, showing the number of landlords, the number of rental tenancies, and the number of properties being bought to let out, in Ireland are all actually increasing. Which would show landlords, very obviously, aren't fleeing the market - they're actually enterting it, in significant numbers.

    You have been repeatedly asked for data to back up your argument if you disagree with this still, but haven't been able to post a single data point to do so, instead just resorting back to rambling anecdotes.

    All of which would suggest you're basing your argument on nothing more than rather uneducated personal opinion, instead of the data proven reality everyone else is replying to you with.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,301 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    You don't understand the argument and rely on 1 year it seems. You have not provided the data because the data doesn't exist and you are unable to see that



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 342 ✭✭ElitesTeam


    It is stupid think there's an increase in people becoming landlords then again covid came from bats.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,400 ✭✭✭Blut2


    You've been shown sourced, reliable data and statistics that show the number of tenancies is increasing year on year.

    You've been shown sourced, reliable data and statistics that show the number of landlords is increasing year on year.

    You've been shown sourced, reliable data and statistics that show the number of houses being bought to be let out is increasing year on year.

    All three of which very obviously confirm that landlords are not, infact, fleeing the market in large numbers in reality, in 2025.

    You on the other hand have shown exactly zero sourced, reliable, statistics that back up your argument that landlords are fleeing the market. Do feel free to do so, otherwise you're just giving off very strong "old man yells at clouds" energy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,460 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    I wouldn't bother, they don't understand simple statistics despite being very familiar with the examination of statistics.

    Some people, who have a vested interest, cannot see beyond their own confirmation bias despite consistently being proven wrong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,301 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    You don't get it. The increase in landlords doesn't mean landlords didn't leave and I have explained how and why that is not a good measurement. The data does not show the information you claim it does



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,460 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    No I really don't think you get it unfortunately.

    Landlords can leave and there still be an increase. I'll put it as simply as possible.

    There are 10 landlords this year.

    5 sell and leave the market, 7 new enter the market.

    There are now 12 landlords, the number has increased despite half the landlords selling as more than half new entered the market.



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