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Northern Ireland 2125?

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,338 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Already accepted when I first tried to get a straight yes or no answer from @downcow



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,338 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Yes we know all of that @downcow

    You were not asked that.


    I asked a question which was very specific and you won’t give a straight answer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    The key point is Francie that Northern Ireland has been given the absolute control over its own destiny in the Good Friday agreement.  We never ever had that before and no other region of the UK or Ireland has that.  

    It is an extremely powerful position.  

    Also, while Brexit caused many problems, what it has done is scare the life out of people voting in the dark without knowing exactly what they’re getting.   If there was ever a referendum, I can hear Brexit being used as a great example not to vote ourselves out of the UK without knowing exactly every detail of what we are getting. And I mean nationalists and unionists.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Yes, of course the republic has a veto against uniting with us.

    But that’s like telling a man who has been chasing after a beautiful woman’s hand in marriage (for over 100 years) that he can say no if she proposes to him 😀



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,338 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Nobody disputes that key point. NI has with ROI self determination if it wants constitutional change.


    NI cannot join with the ROI if the ROI says NO and vice versa. If NI doesn't want constitutional change then the status quo remains and it can ask the same question after 7 years has elapsed.

    Nobody has a veto other than their individual vote. No political party has a veto other than the amount of individual votes it can amass in support of them.

    If both the ROI and NI vote for a UI, do you accept there is no veto available to anyone after that point?

    Yes or No?

    *If anyone else cares to answer that question to show how easy it is to state your position, please do.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    How many ways do you want me to answer it, Frances?  

    The gfa is very clear.  If the people of OWC say they want to join United Ireland, then it will happen, unless of course our stalker/suitor, who has been infatuated with us for over 100 years, takes cold feet at the isle.  If that doesn’t happen, then you are correct there is no one else who can prevent it, Spain, Korea, Russia, they are all screwed, try as they might they cannot stop it. 

    Now, what happens on the island after that is all up for grabs. 

    Is that clear enough for you?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,338 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Why you couldn’t say yes is weird.

    Democratic decisions on our fate, is what will happen.
    What were you expecting?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Now, let’s see can you do a yes/no on the question you were asked several times.

    Accepting as a given that the Republic of Ireland would also hold a vote, do you accept that Northern Ireland has the right to be the democratic unit that decides, by referendum, whether it remains in the UK or joins a united Ireland?

    Simple yes/no



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,338 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Yes.

    If it is a democratically held referendum I will accept the result and start working towards the next referendum.

    I have said this many times over the years btw.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,883 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    Then accept that so far the referendum isn't wanted, otherwise it would have happend by now.

    Why should a referendum be for something worse?

    No NATO? No NHS? No GBP?

    Currently the ROI doesn't have much to offer to NI.

    "Who would attack Ireland attitude?", exchange the NHS for the HSE? Accept a weaker currency?

    Thanks for the offer, but no thanks.

    Re-submit the offer if the ROI has a health care system and military and defence capabilities like Switzerland or joins NATO for that matter.

    Then it's a good offer which would make sense. But currently, Ulster says NO !



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,338 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I live in ‘Ulster’ and you don’t speak for me. Unionists know since partition if the question was asked in Ulster - they’d lose.

    My advice: brush up on your geography.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,431 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I think it would be a bit like the Scottish independence referendum of 2014. The Scottish government of the time put out a detailed white paper about what an independent Scotland would do about defence strategy, NATO membership, currency, EU membership, whether to have a monarch, etc, etc. People voted knowing that that was the program. However, actually implementing that program could only be done by the independent Scottish state, and of course that would involve elections, a new Parliament, potentially a new government, that might campaign and win election on a mandate to do something different from what was in the white paper.

    In a United Ireland, NI would have about 26% of the members of the Oireachtas. Any political position the pre-unification Irish government adopts is adopted by a government has secured the support of just over half of 74% of the all-island population — say, 38-40%. So, obviously, there's a non-zero chance that the all-island Oireachtas, and the all-island government that is dependent on it, might adopt different policy positions on some issues.

    Realistically, if there's cross-party consensus in the south before a unification referendum that unification should be accompanied by, e.g., an application for Commonwealth membership, the post-unification Oireachtas with the addition of members from NI constituencies is very, very unlikely to change that policy, and people would factor that into their decision on how to vote in the unification referendum. But the bottom line is that they could change that policy, or any policy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,883 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    I am aware that Ulster and NI are not the same.

    I think the SF voters wouldn't want an application for Commonwealth membership and neither do they want NATO.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Again, that wasn’t the question I was asking and well you know it.
    I will just accept you are ducking it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,338 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Brings an interesting carrot into the picture if there are Yes votes in both jurisdictions.

    The potential for a northern political block to hold the balance of power in the new government.

    Would be very tempting for some moderate unionists or another Chuckle Brother to accept the changed landscape to get ahead.

    Plenty of belligerent Unionist/Loyalist threatening of violence and apocalypse will be an expected feature if a border poll is called, but IMO they do not have the structures or ability to destabilise and I don't believe the appetite is there in moderate Unionism for another conflict/war.

    If the British decide to call a BP they'll be well ready for the reaction and will not want it to get a hold. What violent belligerence breaks out will be put down or will have fizzled out by referendum time and the moderates and pragmatists will have emerged as they did with the Anglo Irish Agreement, The GFA etc.

    The conundrum for Unionism will be a watershed one.

    Embrace the new reality or consign themselves to the side-lines?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,338 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    What?

    NI will be a 'democratic unit' with regard to a Border Poll. The people there will vote without outside impediment, one person, one vote. Same will happen down here.

    If they both Yes - a UI happens.
    If either votes NO - it doesn't.

    Those are the 'rights' enshrined in the GFA. So your question was:

    do you accept that Northern Ireland has the right to be the democratic unit that decides, by referendum, whether it remains in the UK or joins a united Ireland?

    'YES' is my answer, which I gave without hesitation as soon as you asked it.



    What answer were you looking for?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,431 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Couple of thoughts:

    First, SF voters are a minority. What they want doesn't determine the outcome of a border poll.

    Secondly, while SF voters would likely have a distaste for Commonwealth membership, it's something I think a lot of them would be willing to swallow. The Commonwealth is a bit of a pointless organisation, but where is the harm in joining it? Are you really going to give up on the dream of a 32-county republic, now virtually established, in order to retain the privilege of not sending a team to a sporting carnival?

    NATO membership would be a bigger issue, but there is already a sector of opinion in the Republic that would favour NATO membership; this isn't coming from nowhere, and there's no argument that it's fundamentally antithetical to the republican ideal. Plus, the reason orginally stated for not joining NATO right from the off was partition. If partition is ended you have to find a new rationale for opposing NATO membership which, fair enough, is not impossible. But it won't necessarily be a rationale that will commend itself to all SF members.

    Finally, there's the possiblity that by the time this becomes a live issue the ground may have shifted; Trumpism may have put the kibosh on NATO as the corel of a multilateral defence strategy for the region, and the issue may not be whether Ireland is going to join NATO as whether the rump of the UK is going to join the European Defence Alliance (or whatever it's called by then).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,338 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    What I know of what SF have said is that MLMD has accepted that anthem change flag change and joining the Commonwealth will al have to be considered.
    The NATO/military alliance issue is an ingoing debate here as it is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,431 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    In a united Ireland, unionists would be ~15% of the population of the State, as opposed to ~1.5% of the population of the UK. This, coupled with the more democratic and representative system that prevails in Ireland, means that they'd have vastly more influence at national level than they do in the UK, and they'd have it regularly rather than exceptionally, as in the UK. Which would give them a lot more control over their own destiny than they currently have.

    I get that unionists, given their 'druthers, would not be in a united Ireland — that's pretty much the definition of unionism, after all. But in that situation the choice facing them would not be between:

    • repudiating their place in the state and sulking (or worse) in extra-parliamentary politics, on the one hand; and
    • being the kind of token irrelevancy that they are in Westminster on the other.

    Rather, it would between:

    • repudiating their place in the state; and
    • being major, and often decisive, players in Leinster House.

    (Ex-)Unionists in Leinster House absolutely could make or break an Irish government (and they absolutely could operate effectively to keep SF out of government, if that was their priority). In terms of the oportunities and influence that they'd be giving up, the price they would pay for abstaining from Leinster House would be orders of magnitude greater than the price SF pays for abstaining from Westminster.

    The stereotype of unionists is that they're a pragmatic and hard-nosed people. Most probably the movement would split between the no surrender incorruptibles on the one hand and a parliamentary movement on the other. But the parliamentary wing would have such a profile, and such a visible degree of influence, that I think the weight of unionist voters would likely swing behind it fairly quickly. E.g. I think a united Ireland would join NATO, because that's already a growing issue and the introduction of a cohort of ex-Unionist members into Leinster House would be a big step towards victory for those who support NATO membership.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,338 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    If I were advising Unionism, I'd think it critical that their own unity is the current crisis facing them.

    If they cannot unify now as Unionism declines and the eternal in-fighting and jockeying to be the most hard line (probably what is driving people away) continues, then they risk being completely fractured come a BP or UI.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,431 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I think they will inevitably be completely fractured come a UI; how can the end of the Union not be an existential crisis for unionism? The question is what kind of political representation of the British identity will emerge from the cataclysm? I think the fundamental choice will be between a theologically pure rejection of the Irish state no matter what the cost (think SF in the 1930s and 40s) and a pragmatic determination to make the best of an unpleasant situation (think the pro-Treaty wing of SF in 1922).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,338 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The 'conundrum' I mentioned earlier:

    Embrace the new reality or consign themselves to the side-lines?



    You'd wonder will the histories you mentioned above have any weight. Learn from it or repeat it. I think Paisley certainly learned from it in his reaction to the new reality after the GFA.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    In this hypothetical fantastical scenario of a positive poll,  I don’t think there would be a chance of unionist boycotting the Irish parliament, we would use all the influence we had.  

    But we can have all those things and still campaign aggressively for a devolved Northern Ireland or a devolved Northeast, if certain areas want to stay under Dublin rule entirely. 

    I think there is an incredible naivety on some posters here who believe there is a snowball in hells chance of the unionist community quietly coming under the rule of a government who eg continues to hide the part that played in our slaughter. 

    I honestly just don’t know and I’m 50-50 as to whether there will be major paramilitary and secretarian violence - that’s anybody’s guess.  Whether the inevitable killings will escalate into sectarian tit for tat, like we had for 30 years, I just don’t know and I sincerely hope not.

    I don’t think there will be any significant trouble pre-unification while the British are still involved - the vast majority of unionists would still be appalled at attacks on the British forces as the connections run so deep in our community.  That barrier is taken away as soon as it is the Irish forces, so who knows.  

    I think there is a clear lack of understanding about how our community have felt threatened and attacked by Ireland for the last 50 years.  It really is like asking Palestine to be governed by Israel or Ukraine to be governed by Russia.  The only difference is that you will have a slight majority in the region who will be okay with that new rule, but it makes for an incredible mess that people are painting as utopia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,338 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    coming under the rule of a government 

    This from a poster who just said a few sentences earlier:

     I don’t think there would be a chance of unionist boycotting the Irish parliament, we would use all the influence we had.  

    You won't be 'coming under the rule of a government', you will be a part of that government. It will be your own government therefore, which like a normal government in any democracy will have political opponents and political allies depending on how you play it.

    You are currently under the rule of a government, you have little or no say in. How more starkly do you need that pointed out to you?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,580 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    It really is like asking Palestine to be governed by Israel…

    Now this is a wild take. You believe that Unionists are in a similar position to over a 100k Palestinians who have been murdered in a genocide and are now being starved to death in a man made famine…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 690 ✭✭✭michael-henry-mcivor


    Catholic killings during the Troubles was described away as Tit For Tat by some of the media-

    When the IRA killed British soldiers or RUC that was never reported as Tit for Tat-



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,338 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The exceptionalism that 'we are the only victims' is wild too.

    'Wildly' off the mark and shows a complete unwillingness to accept Unionist responsibility for their part of what happened in the partitioned statelet and what caused it to go up in flames and fail all it's people.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,883 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    Yes, these points do make sense. I personally always see the SF as a strong threat. First they are on the left, and that's not me. Second, they like high taxes or are the most likely of all parties in Ireland to hike taxes, and Third they and their voters want unification at any cost.

    "Any cost attitudes" and the idea to most likely hike taxes would be per se a no go not only for me, but for many in the ROI. And one should bear in mind that the ROI and Dublin would have to foot the bill for what Westminster is paying now to fund public services, from policing to schools to healthcare.

    So, purely out of economic reasons, if NI would join the ROI, NI would have to be made economically a lot stronger than it is now. This doesn't happen overnight, same as the ROI didn't make it from a poverty ridden country of the 70ies and 80ies to where it is now, - considerably and noticable better of and in some matters a top player within in the EU.

    Anybody considering reunification of Ireland would have to present a very strong economic plan and business case to do so. I doubt that the SF would be capable of that.

    What I find so important about NATO membership is that the ROI would be part of something bigger. This doesn't mean that Ireland would have to send soldiers into every conflict. The ROI would most likely also have negotiation options about military spending, similar to Iceland which doesn't spend much either. NATO membership for the ROI would put Ireland on one specific side and any agressor would know, "hands off Ireland" and a possible invasion a hostile force would have to pay a "very high price" to do so.

    The "Nobody would attack us?" attitude would have to go and would hold no place in a united Ireland.

    This is also why fighter jets and a decent radar system are very important for the Air Corps, - same as the Naval service having ships which can be used at a moment's notice, not sitting in the harbour waiting endlessly for spare parts.

    Commonwealth could be described as something oldfashioned or not, it's not that important for the ROI to re join the Commonwealth ( maybe only to appease unionists), but even if it's to re-unite the island one should bear in mind that the role of the Governor General would be chosen by the Irish government, - not in the UK, not in Westminster.

    The monarch may visit Hillsborough castle every now and then, same as Rideau Hall in Canada or other palces.

    The country would have the same status as Australia, NZ or Canada.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,338 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Ireland is already part of something bigger - the UN.

    We have an admirable record as peacekeepers in zones in chaos because of fighting between various military alliances.

    Our military neutrality is an aid to that vital work.

    P.S. The 'presentation' of a UI will come from whoever the current government of Ireland is at the time of a BP. A plan passed in the Dáil by all of the executive.

    You will NOT be voting on a presentation from a single political party.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,195 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    If they don't want those, they won't win a border poll.



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