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Presidential Election 2025

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,638 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    What didn't fly?

    She will be asked about the various expenses stories in debates and about what she stood over as an MEP and what her actual views are, if she has any of her own.

    I'd imagine her competitors reckon those issues are far from resolved/answered adequately, just as the issues surrounding Connolly will be looked at by her competitors.
    One advantage Connolly has is that she is out there vocally addressing those issues and visibly campaigning, she may well have all the bad PR stuff exhausted, by the time Mairead deigns to come to a microphone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,896 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    True, but the FG grassroots seems to be around 20% on a good day. If nobody else runs and it's her versus Connolly she has to be favourite, but an alternative candidate could easily knock her back too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,648 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Of course SF supporters will always be getting digs in at the FG candidate for anything, and anyone looking at it halfway objectively would recognise MMcG as the favourite at this stage. Do they care enough about a race in which at this stage SF does not have a candidate to say they are 'worried' though?



  • Administrators Posts: 55,668 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    One advantage Connolly has is that she is out there vocally addressing those issues

    She hasn't really. She can't.

    Connolly's problem is the issues she has are actually real political problems rather than issues of style or just mistakes. This isn't a PR problem for Connolly.

    She has consistently shown terrible judgement when it comes to who she is willing to associate with (Daly, Wallace, O'Doherty). She has consistently shown terrible judgement in foreign issues, whether that be her half-baked condemnation of Putin's invasion of Ukraine or her trip to Syria.

    These are very difficult problems to try brush aside, since the only way to do is to go out and do a u-turn on her beliefs and proclaim she was wrong on all those occasions. And that's hardly going to send people flooding to the polls.

    I still maintain that once the campaign starts proper and the hard questions really start flying she just will have far too much baggage to survive this race. She is too naive.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,638 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You might have a point if she was hiding or resiling from those stances and things she did.

    She isn't. So it really is just your opinion vs hers and her support.
    I think it has been more than adequately shown here that a lot of the criticism can be see to be 'reds under the bed' hyperbole.

    Others here are now trying to invent an opinion that refuses to accept that McGuinness is currently ahead. Nobody is saying that that I can see. McGuinness is ahead but has yet to face scrutiny.






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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,416 ✭✭✭pureza


    There isn’t a great deal of love in the country for Wallace and Daly style love in’s with women’s rights despising brutal dictatorships,then add resentment towards immigrants into the mix and is it a good environment for a candidates campaign vs a poll topper in the country’s most populous constituency,most likely not



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,638 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    If Connolly wants to turn her back on what she has done/stood for, that's up to her.

    She would lose my vote, but maybe she can hope to get votes from those who would never vote for her in a month of Sundays.

    Up to her I suppose.



  • Administrators Posts: 55,668 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    The number of people willing to vote for someone of her background is not great enough to elect someone as President. There are not enough people willing to bury their heads and pretend she's just misunderstood.

    Her problems are not obscure issues either. They are all high profile.

    Everyone knows what Clare Daly is. Everyone knows what Mick Wallace is. Everyone knows who Gemma O'Doherty is. Everyone knows about Assad and Syria. Everyone knows about Putin. These are issues that everyone around every single kitchen table in Ireland will be aware of and Connolly is on the wrong side of all of them.

    She'll get the far left vote and the anti-establishment vote but once you get near the centre very few will touch her.

    She won't do a u-turn on what she believes in but what she believes in is why she will not be President.



  • Administrators Posts: 55,668 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I believe SF are now stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they back Connolly, it looks bad on a few fronts. Firstly, they are the main opposition and if they don't field a candidate it looks like they are followers rather than leaders and it highlights the idea that they don't have a great deal of talent on the books.

    But even worse, backing Connolly pins her to them.

    On the other hand, SF have nobody who can win, and it won't be easy to find a sacrificial lamb.

    I hear talk of Conor Murphy. Not a hope. I quite like Michelle O'Neill as a person and find her much more palatable than MLMD, maybe some day she will run for President but she's not winning it now. I don't think she has the profile in the south to attract votes outside of the SF base. As for MLMD, no hope, her problem is the opposite, she has too much profile of the wrong sort.

    At a time when people are being fed extreme politics of one flavour or another it's hard to overlook the voters falling in behind McGuinness as the middle-of-the-road safe bet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,416 ✭✭✭pureza


    if SF ran Michelle o’Neil,they’d have a reasonable chance

    That’s what I’d be advising,She’d do very well



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,638 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    All I ask of any politician is to stand up for what you believe. I can respect that even if I don’t agree with their views.
    I don’t agree with all of any politicians.
    i agree with some of Connolly’s and think she is a brave and admirable politician.

    I wont be alone voting for her and that’s enough. If she wins she wins. If she doesn’t she doesn’t



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,876 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    If Connolly stands behind her previous controversial positions, she won't win.

    If she resiles from them, then she definitely won't win.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 39,745 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Janey mac, do you actually expect a member of a party to go on the record about that sort of thing?

    When a reputable journalist, a Dail correspondent of long standing, says a member of party X told them Y you can take it as fact that a member of party X told them Y but for very obvious reasons didn't want to be named

    In political parties factions and divisions exist, and off-record comments are a way to ventilate them.

    And any pol corr found to be making stuff up would lose the trust of everyone instantly and make themselves unemployable in the field.

    The SF way of doing things isn't how normal political parties, which didn't use bullets to resolve differences of opinion in living memory, operate.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,322 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    I get we all love chatting about politics here , but I genuinely don't think Joe Bloggs will give a **** about all this stuff whether we like it or not. Its ultimately a personality contest like all politics unfortunately and I actually think because she is a genuinely good person she will do well and yeah its probably wishcasting!.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 39,745 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Well she can either resile from these stances or double down.

    Resiling from them is electorally bad.

    Doubling down is worse.

    It's up to her!

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 39,745 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Would she maintain your vote against even a Ni Riada-style poor quality SF candidate?

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,638 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Is that a threat?
    'Change your views or I won't give you the vote I would never give you anyway'. 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,638 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You clearly haven't read the same newspapers I have over the years.

    You are right, factions and divisions exist i all parties, but so also do journalists who like to talk these normal things up to fill a column or two.

    Readers of other party support love to read and post that kind of stuff, the skill is working out if it's bullshit or not.
    As no discernible rancour in Labour has emerged the story is bull and catastrophising for the sake of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 39,745 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    It's not about my vote Francie but the votes of the huge numbers of people who don't like a candidate with her associations

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,638 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,849 ✭✭✭MFPM


    An opinion or stance you don't like or agree with doesn't make it 'controversial'. The media throw this nonsense around notably against anyone who deviates beyond centrist political orthodoxy.

    Connolly has a battle on her hands to win and there'll be a concerted campaign against her by sections of the media and some of the NATO shills operating in academia.

    Connolly, as it stands is the candidate with the closest political and world view to MDH who is very popular - I think she will do well and can win particularly if SF get behind her and work for her.

    Perhaps you have a crystal ball, but I'd be loathe to make the definitive predictions you are.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,849 ✭✭✭MFPM




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,638 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I really hope she amplifies her messaging on 'consensus' views and how we are becoming more and more afraid to even listen to views outside the consensus one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,416 ✭✭✭pureza


    This very sites threads on Claire and Mick I’d imagine?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 39,745 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Where's your evidence for "NATO shills" operating in our left-wing academia?

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 78,638 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Why did you alter what the poster said?

    Strange.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,849 ✭✭✭MFPM


    So, you have no evidence for your assertion, why didn't you just say that?

    As for 'left-wing' academia, I made no such reference - if you haven't the courtesy to quote me correctly perhaps you shouldn't engage at all?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,849 ✭✭✭MFPM




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,156 ✭✭✭Montage of Feck


    Connelly seems liked and her foreign policy stance isn't all too different from MDH, while MMcG isn't very likeable but isn't going to embarrass us.

    🙈🙉🙊



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 39,745 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    There was a reason I did not put those words in quotation marks. I regard Irish academia as broadly left-leaning as do most analysts. Your and Francie's claim to not understand plain English seems nothing but a deflection tactic to me.

    So who are the "NATO shills operating in academia" (direct quote) ?

    I'm partial to your abracadabra
    I'm raptured by the joy of it all



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