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Northern Ireland 2125?

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,900 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    If it wasn't for Brexit and both sides would remain part of the EU, I would have said, why not keep the status quo. Let NI have their own government and part of the UK but at the same time, make the border as transparent as possible would have been my choice.

    However once Brexit came along things did change, even if there are certain arangements for NI.

    If I was living in NI what would bother me the most is:

    Changing NATO membership with neutrality and how it is lived in the Republic of Ireland

    Changing the British pound for the Euro, just for interest/savings and banking reasons.

    And thirdly, and that's personal, I'd also miss the monarchy ( even though most would disagree with me in this forum) but a Governor General would also be fine with me.

    Overall, a united Ireland should at least be part of NATO, but I would be aware that's a very difficult conversation to have with most in the Republic.

    And if no agreement can be reached, let's make the status quo as smooth and transparent as possible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,411 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Changing NATO membership with neutrality and how it is lived in the Republic of Ireland

    That wouldn't bother everyone in NI, many would be happy to be neutral.

    Changing the British pound for the Euro, just for interest/savings and banking reasons.

    Again, not everyone would see a change as a bad thing.

    We've had 100 years of the status quo, what makes you think it will ever be smooth? It has failed as an experiment and requires the life support of the GFA just to function.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 783 ✭✭✭BaywatchHQ


    I think loyalist culture may die out. We have seen more mixed marriages in the past 25 years than there probably was the 300 years before it. When people are from a mixed background they are more likely to be involved in Irish culture than loyalist culture because Irish culture isn't as extreme as orange culture. The question is what would unionist culture look like in 100 years? Will it simply be the Northern Ireland football team and motorbike racing?

    I have always known that many unionists don't really care about the UK. Their main love is for "Ulster". Even if France or Germany came in to rule Ulster they would be ok with that as long as they weren't ruled from Dublin.

    I don't actually care about the future of the place as I'll be dead by then. There is no win for Catholics as we would be a part of a country that didn't want us either way. I consider it unfortunate to have to live in this country as a Catholic. Very bad luck actually, 32 counties in Ireland and I had to be from one of the 6.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,900 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    I doubt very much that you will make everyone happy in NI with your kind of opinion. It'll at best be a harsh political debate, with very different opinions and implications.

    NI does have a catholic majority these days, but I doubt if it'll be a majority if there was a referendum. There wasn't even a referendum called, even though Belfast doesn't need permission to do so. ( unlike Scotland )

    There are individuals who have high level military careers and are from NI. They would love to continue their career in a well funded military and not some badly funded neural military lacking in mostly everything like in the Republic. At the same time the RAF from Scotland is called if the Irish airspace of the Republic is approached and that'll be even more of a joke for those who advocate NATO.

    Also the British pound always tends to be stronger than the Euro. Remember the Euro-crisis with Greece? NI has full access to the British banking system, whilst in the Republic it's only BoI and AIB, after KBC left it's only two?

    The NHS, even though not good, ist still better than the HSE. Visits to the NHS are for free, for the HSE one has to pay every time one visits.

    Public transport, espeically the bus service seems more reliable in Belfast than in Dublin, - just from my experience.

    The only advantage I could see is that the Republic of Ireland doesn't have water meters and council tax or the equivalent called LPT seems to be cheaper.

    NI seems to be a different society than in the Republic. It's simply more industrially shaped, aviation, even military and defence companies, and it's in general an older population.

    The Republic seems a younger population, and more post-agricultural, with IT and pharma as strong industries.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Brexit has expedited a united Ireland. The only thing hardline Unionism can do to slow it down is to actually embrace the unique economic position they find themselves in.

    But they won't. They have spent the decades since the GFA doing absolutely nothing for their communities and then pointing the finger at nationalist areas and saying "it's their fault you have nothing, they're getting everything" when in reality it's their absolute inability to do anything an elected representative should be doing.

    A walk along the Shankill and then the Falls highlights this.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,411 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    There are individuals who have high level military careers and are from NI. They would love to continue their career in a well funded military and not some badly funded neural military lacking in mostly everything like in the Republic

    Who your country is run by has nothing to do with a career in the military. Plenty of Irish here that are into that kind of thing are in other armies of the world.

    At the same time the RAF from Scotland is called if the Irish airspace of the Republic is approached and that'll be even more of a joke for those who advocate NATO.

    The RAF request use of our airspace to protect themselves. Cannot see why that would not be continued.

    Also the British pound always tends to be stronger than the Euro. Remember the Euro-crisis with Greece? NI has full access to the British banking system, whilst in the Republic it's only BoI and AIB, after KBC left it's only two?

    Most ordinary people would not have huge issue using the Euro.

    The NHS, even though not good, ist still better than the HSE. Visits to the NHS are for free, for the HSE one has to pay every time one visits.

    A bit of a myth and a double edged sword this one.
    Outcomes are better here even if the system needs root and branch reform.

    Also ROI fares better by almost every metric nowadays and does not require an international agree just to function.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    I have attended lectures by academics who who state that there is a very clear case for an argument for colonisation and an argument against colonisation and that ni is very different from the normal colonisation situation.
    if you can’t see that then it’s you that’s wearing the blinkers.
    are you aware that 90% of Scot’s that arrived in Northeast Ireland or economic migrants and arrived long before and after the plantation.
    Are you going to claim Tory Island was colonised? After all it is further from the Irish mainland than NI is from the British mainland



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,900 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    I would agree that the ROI would fare better than the UK on some matters, but certainly never on military and defence or policing. Both are chronically underfundend, and the reasons to exist are constantly in doubt. The likes of the discussion "Who would attack Ireland" often says it all. Of course it would be a different debate if a neutral Ireland had an air force like neutral Switzerland, but the sheer discussion about that seems impossible. Apart from all that NATO membership isn't a bad idea at all, only some with strong republican feelings would disagree and you can imagine that doesn't go down too well with parts of society in NI.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    this did make me laugh:

    When people are from a mixed background they are more likely to be involved in Irish culture than loyalist culture because Irish culture isn't as extreme as orange culture. ”

    I know a significant number of people who come from mixed marriages who play in loyalist bands - not to mention the more famous like Michael stone.
    do you not realise that your culture looks fluffy and mine looks nasty, because of where you’re looking from?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,411 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Not just 'republican' feelings.

    If we can't afford to fund our defence forces we cannot afford to spend what NATO requires.

    We have only been invaded by Britain and absolutely nobody is showing any signs of doing it.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    All good points, but I think you’re probably not aware that in Northern Ireland we do not have water meters or council tax either



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,411 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Oh I'm sure you were at a lecture. Will we ever be told who the lecturer was though? I doubt it. 😁



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 11,257 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    I think you are making a lot of assumptions about what people will vote for…. I also think most people supporting a United Ireland will be bitterly disappointed if it does come as it will almost certainly be not what they wanted.

    One of the big issues to be addressed is Conservative North versus Progressive South. Would people in the South be willing to accept the rolling back of laws on divorce, abortion, gay marriage etc?

    Another issue is the financing of NI. All the SF type reports I have seen are fundamentally flawed and will fall apart under scrutiny at decision time, a simple example would be the size of the UK national debt that would have to be taken over by a new Irish state. And so on.

    I could easily see a situation were after a successful border poll, the South decides against the idea and NI is left swinging in the wind begging someone to adapt it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,411 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    One of the big issues to be addressed is Conservative North versus Progressive South. Would people in the South be willing to accept the rolling back of laws on divorce, abortion, gay marriage etc?

    Eh?
    Why would they have to accept that? You can get a divorce in NI and gays have been able to marry since 2020. Abortion law has been changed too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,411 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    This is the same Sam who told us the Shinners were going to take their seats in Westminster. 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Here is a bit of that article if you can’t open it. Music to my ears

    IMG_0199.png IMG_0198.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,411 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It a bit like trying to say the DUP had said a UI was inevitable because their founder member Wallace Thompson believes that a UI is inevitable.

    The Shinners advocating for the border to remain??? We're in Sam's twilight zone. 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,900 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    I am aware that some would want Irish reunification no matter what. And these some would think they are in the majority and everyone has to like their opinion, and it's the chance Ireland has been waiting for for centuries….. Knock down the door if the lock is jammed, something like that. Sounds a bit like a Brexiteer.

    However you may be aware that attitude to military and defence in the UK are different to those in the ROI. It's like stating that "We've never had a fire, so why do we need firefighters?" in the ROI. So, pls be aware somebody would always prefer NATO membership over neutrality, espeically the kind of lame ROI neutrality.

    Also you should remember that the decision wouldn't be down to the people of the ROI, it would have to be a referendum by the people in NI.

    And then there are financial considerations. There are considerable financial transfer payments from Westminster to NI, a bill Dublin would have to foot in case of reunification.

    The kind of low corporation tax rate policy in the ROI wouldn't be able to cope with that at all. ( SF wouldn't have a problem with that, they'll just introduce another tax, they are nationalist lefties)

    And then there are other matters, re-naming streets and places after Irish republicans rather than British names. Also if remembrance day would go, lot's would be bothered.

    You wouldn't be bothered, but others would be. It's not your decision, it's the decision of many others.

    To date a referendum in NI hasn't been called.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    sorry , I cut off the important piece at the top that said where this was aired first i.e. a Sinn Fein – so don’t try and pretend it’s some old man who’s irrelevant

    IMG_0200.png


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,411 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I am aware that some would want Irish reunification no matter what. And these some would think they are in the majority and everyone has to like their opinion, and it's the chance Ireland has been waiting for for centuries….. Knock down the door if the lock is jammed, something like that. Sounds a bit like a Brexiteer.

    However you may be aware that attitude to military and defence in the UK are different to those in the ROI. It's like stating that "We've never had a fire, so why do we need firefighters?" in the ROI.

    They won't be in the UK if there is a successful democratic majority vote.
    Irish people have had to accept things they don't like under the GFA and that is all Unionists will be asked to do in a UI.

    Observe democracy.

    People from other countries can serve in the UK forces if they wish, no different for folk in a UI.

    If a majority in a UI want to join NATO, so be it.

    As you say, these are decisions for the people of Ireland, nobody else. And nobody on any side should be appeased.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,411 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Do you understand what 'transitional' arragements mean?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,900 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    NI nor ROI.

    There would have to be a referendum in NI first.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    unionists in ni have accepted a devolved ni in the united kingdom under gfa. Nothing more will be asked of republicans ie a devolved ni in a united ireland



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,411 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Yes, and if both refs are successful they would no longer be in the UK. So their UK attitude to military would no longer be relevant. The important attitude would be the majority one in the new UI, same as it is in any democracy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,411 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You first have get the GFA changed by majority consent then you have to convince a majority that a Unionist 'homeland' is a good idea.
    Best of luck with both.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    so exactly where in the gfa does it say that a ui cannot contain a devolved ni



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 12,424 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    oh I understand that very well. It means that ni will continue after a ui poll and you can aspire to ending it - but I think we all know you would not have a snowball in hells chance of convincing the people of the island to fix what’s not broken and risk letting all hell break loose



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,999 ✭✭✭csirl


    Very siimple. There will be a 3-4 year lead in period after the vote. UK will still be responsible for security in N.I. during this period. UK will also want it to work and will deal with any issues before final handover.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 81,411 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    So the plan is to convince those who have just delivered a majority vote for a UI and the end of partion and consequently NI that a devolved NI is a good idea?

    Yeh? This the strategy?



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