Charts ( Up to T120 ) Summer 2025 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST*

Big spread of where the heaviest rain will fall amongst the models, Waterford looks like it might need to be included in the warnings, time enough though to wait until tonight's runs to come out to fine tune it. Met Eireann has a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow but quite a low chance I would think, Sunday on the other hand looks more active and more widespread and getting into the low 20's perhaps, tomorrow looks like getting into the high teens and maybe 20 or so in the midlands. Humid enough especially on Sunday with DP's in the mid teens.

That is some rainfall projections in 24 hrs up along the E, NE.

The Met Office taking it seriously. As the front pivots over the East coasts it looks to drop the most rainfall overnight into early morning, might rain in parts right up to late afternoon or a bit into the evening..

Still confidence low for Monday, different strengths and track, possibly a very wet for a time and blustery/ windy day, UKMO is the outlier showing a substantial storm tracking around the N of the country but too far out on its own, GFS lighter than the ECM below so time for adjustments either way yet.

My take on Storm Floris

Storm Floris is set to bring a wet and stormy start to the August Bank Holiday Monday, with wind gusts expected to exceed 90 to 100 km/h in parts of the north and northwest.

A shortwave trough situated off St. Johns in Newfoundland is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Alantic in the next 24 hours, eventually tracking northeastward along Ireland’s northwest coast before shifting toward northern Scotland.

The strongest winds will develop on the southern flank of the system, bringing potentially damaging gusts across parts of Connacht and Ulster.

The synoptic weather stations most likely to record the highest gusts include Belmullet in Mayo, Finner and Malin Head in Donegal, Ballypatrick in Antrim, and Magilligan in Derry.

The far south and southeast will experience much less windy and wet conditions.

Such gusts are relatively unusual but not rare for Ireland in August.

For context, on August 1st, 1986, a gust of 115 km/h was recorded at Malin Head, Donegal. More recently, Storm Ellen produced a gust of 143 km/h at Cork (Roches Point) on August 19th, 2020. Another notable August event was Hurricane Charley, which struck Ireland on August 25th, 1986, causing widespread flooding and damage, particularly along the east coast.

Rainfall totals will likely range 15-20mm in the far northwest, perhaps higher locally with any thunderstorm activity. Totals will be much lower in the far south and southeast with rainfall amounts of less than 5mm.

Rain will clear from the west coast by midday, with sunny spells and isolated showers developing through the afternoon. However, winds will remain blustery throughout the day.