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US/EU trade talks go down to the wire

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,389 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    The EU are also Billionaires. Thats why they're at the same table to begin with. If you cant take advantage of a maniac at the poker table then you're the fish.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,286 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I think we're pushing this metaphor further than it can go. Trade negotiations aren't actually a poker game in which you can win money staked by other players.

    This has only ever been a damage limitation exercise. The difference between Trump and the EU is that Trump is in denial about, or doesn't care about, damage to the US, whereas the EU is acutely aware of damage to the EU. But it's hard to leverage this difference in a way that produces a net beneficial outcome for the EU.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,019 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    There is one way it can become extremely beneficial.

    Its not a bad thing that this whole saga has shaken the EU from its inertia, its obsession with regulation and inflation, rather than innovation and growth. At least I hope from some of the signs that it has.

    What this deal has done, and in this I agree with David McWilliams, is bought time and provided a degree of certainty.

    That gives a bit of breathing room to plan a Brexit style response and diversify. And that Brexit era expertise remains in the EU, and it was very effective.

    The White House has its 'win' to crow about, but nobody except a fool believes the EU is going to buy the amount of LPG in the deal, after all, it would require something like ten times the current consumption in the EU, at a time that consumption is dropping!

    Also, on defence, European governments have been put on notice about the strings attached to US defence purchasing, and there is no question that large investment by the EU 27 will be in EU makers over American ones. So there is no way the 'hundreds of billions' is going to be spent there either.

    This deal won't do one beneficial thing to return manufacturing to the US. In fact, all it has done is to lock in higher input costs for American businesses and higher inflation and less choice for ordinary Americans. In reality, all the White House wants to do, is increase revenues at point of entry to fund tax cuts for the rich. And they will deal with the consequences of that in several ways, down the line.

    So yes, the EU has received a bloody nose. But maybe just one nostril. And once bitten twice shy. Now is the window of time to assess the lessons, regroup, restrategise, diversify.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 11,095 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    It is not remotely like poker….

    First of all it's not even a deal and secondly none of the decision makers are in the room.

    Trade deals need to be ratified by Congress in the US and the 38 regional and national parliments of the EU (not the states) for them to become legally binding and we're along way from that right now. In fact not a single trade deal has ever survived this process in tact. For example Congress struck down almost 50% of Trumps original trade deal to replace NAFTA last time around.

    As it stands Trump intends to charge on average 15% on assembled goods entering the US, but 25% on components used in US manufacturing…. On top of this most countries will now up their tarrifs from around 2.5% on US goods to the now "Standard" 15%. This means voters in the US will be hit by inflation and job losses while US Companies will be hit in both the home market and abroad ⇒ components will be hit with 25% on import and 15% on export…. The chances of this surviviing Congressional approval is not very high.

    When it comes to the EU, Trump has achieved nothing beyond increasing the cost of US goods in Europe. No wider access to the Single Market and we were going to have to buy the gas and arms for the Ukraine from somewhere in any case…

    I expect that the 38 parliments of the EU will eventually accept the deal because it's what has to be done for now, but the future will be very different. However I very much doubt politicians seeking reelection in the midterms will accept it and so this saga could go on for the rest of Trumps term. Or he simply learns the lesson, shuts his mouth and lets Congress rewrite the deal back to the original state.

    The most recent comment I heard out of Washington is that there is not talk of a "Tariff Rebate check" for consumers! This is not a game of cards it's a circus.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    The one thing that all expect is that the US will have reasonable to good growth over the next few years and longer.

    The EU will muddle along at stagnation growth levels over the next 5 years.

    There is some severe delusion about the reality of the EU economy Vs the US one, likely driven by Trump obsession.

    The US got the deal it did because the EU hadn't any ace at all, all the talk about the US customer bearing the brunt, I'd guess that an awful lot of the tariffs will be eaten by European companies and the strength of the US economy will soon make up for the rest .

    As always with the EU economy, hopefully this won't be the shock that sends it in to crisis again.

    Hopefully it will shock the EU into a complete change, unlikely though.

    The growth levels of the last 5 years are abysmal and long term an existential threat to European societies and the wider global economy



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,651 ✭✭✭Deub


    I have difficulties to understand your posts. You say EU is in a bad shape and if they don't wake up(which according it to you, is unlikely to happen), it is an existential threat to European societies.

    Can you give us your reasoning on what went wrong and what EU should do to get back on track?

    How is EU compare to other zones (excluding US)?

    To be clear, I am not having a go at you. I see you have a strong opinion on this and I want to understand more on this topic which I find interesting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,612 ✭✭✭twinytwo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    1000007659.jpg

    This compares Euro area growth vs US growth over last 5 years by qtr.

    Lots of 0.3%s in Europe and lots of 3%s for the US.

    1000007660.jpg

    This is the outcome, one further, in 2015 there wasn't that much difference between the US and Euro GDP, by 2030 or a year or two after the Euro area will be near half the US economy.

    What's the biggest technology in the modern era, AI, going to revolutionise the world more than Electricity has since it's first use, in the next decade alone, the EU has made itself a hostile workable place for businesses or start ups in that, ceding all innovation to the US and China, while the list of European companies is dominated by names familiar to our grandfathers.

    Look at EU directives and laws on tech, they are purely designed with global sized corporations in mind, no thoughts at all given towards how a small start up can afford the teams or compliance involved just to meet them, not just grow their businesses.

    The current EU leadership and State leaderships are mostly the same people who have let Europe get into this state and done nothing all along.

    People are talking about hitting back at America, it's laughable.

    Making Europe less hostile to start ups and self employed, SMEs and the big one, making energy cheap in Europe, no matter what that means, reducing the regulation and compliance issues, it's unworkable for too many.

    We are realistically looking at a time when Europe is a third the side of the US economy by the time many of us are getting the pension and people are going on about Trump and the effects of tariffs on US consumers.

    Look at the 10 biggest companies in the Eurozone, how many of them have a long term future? Nearly all are more vulnerable and performing worse than a decade ago.

    The economic picture for Europe may actually be worse in years to come than it already is.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,426 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    So still no certainty about what was agreed about tariffs.

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_25_1930

    The 15% ceiling will also apply to any potential future tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, including those based on Section 232. Until the US decides on whether to impose additional tariffs on these products pursuant to Section 232, they will remain subject only to US MFN tariffs.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/29/pharma-tariffs-firms-urge-for-clarity-under-eu-us-trade-deal.html

    Pharma giants push for tariff clarity as ambiguity threatens EU-U.S. deal

    Really hoping the EU didn't drop the ball here. Anti-EU sentiment will justifiably rise if we are forced to invest all this money in America whilst also losing a bunch of the pharma industry.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 44,454 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    What money are we being forced to invest in America?

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,426 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    750 billion USD on energy imports and then 650 billion on "investments".

    Promoting and facilitating mutual investments on both sides of the Atlantic.  EU companies have expressed interest in investing at least $600 billion (ca. €550 billion) in various sectors in the US by 2029, further boosting the already significant €2.4 trillion in existing investment.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 44,454 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Yeah, we won't be forced into that.
    Sure currently there isn't even an actual deal for us to adhere to!

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,557 ✭✭✭dmakc


    One would have to think as sure as EU won't (and has no power to) invest in US Energy & Military, US will be back for Pharma



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,816 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Trump just slapped a 25% tariff on India for it's trade practices plus a "penalty" for it's dealings with Russia. Economic data out of the US today shows inflation slowing and an uptick in growth which is only going to continue emboldening him.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,019 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Fine. Whatever. There is no natural conclusion to this that doesn't involve a deliberate shrinking of the American economy and ordinary working Americans being worse off.

    Once the tariff regimes harden, it will kick in, sooner or later. And considering there isn't enough American raw materials, such as steel, to grow the kind of industrial rebound that he wants, costs will skyrocket because of having to import tariffed metals from abroad.

    And that will ultimately hit his beloved stock markets. Certainly before the 2026 mid-term elections.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    While we won't know the full picture for another year or two, the "it's just going to drive inflation wild" always smacked of people in desperate need of a theory, with the levels of automation and AI contributed productivity, we are more likely to see low inflation to no inflation



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,816 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Bad news for the drinks industry. FT saying wine and spirits from EU countries will be tariffed at 15% from tomorrow. We've already seen distilleries close since the uncertainty began.

    https://www.ft.com/content/34c8c907-8999-4088-8356-d4d70a43de58 (paywalled)

    They say negotiations are ongoing on the sector though.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 44,454 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Are you saying that the EU should have not agreed the framework deal's rate of 15% and allowed the 30% Trump was originally going to set in place?

    The uncertainty is not on the EU side - it is completely the doing of the US administration - nobody else. The EU have sought and achieved a level of certainty while a petulant child sits remains as POTUS

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,816 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I haven't said what anyone should have agreed.

    I said it's bad news.

    The point here is that we have a government who are saying they will increase current expenditure in the next budget by 7%.

    Decide for yourself whether our changed circumstances have really sunk in or not.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 333 ✭✭Qaanaaq


    But is that 15% on top of existing drinks tariffs/import charges or a replacement for? I guess the finer details are important to try and gauge the impact. It was pointed out a couple of pages back that there is a difference from the headline figures.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 31,730 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    It is a replacement. the 15% is an "all in" calculation.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 44,454 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    I haven't said what anyone should have agreed.

    I said it's bad news.

    So you were posting a link to a negative story without wanting to pass comment yourself apart from it being "bad news"?
    The EU has absolutely no control over Tariffs what Trump wants to levy on imports. That the proposed tariff was 30% and has since been reduced to 15% surely is a good thing, no?

    You also mention about industry closures since the uncertainty began. Remind us all who introduced this uncertainty and how we could have either prevented it or buffered ourselves better from its impact. Should the drinks industry not have been selling large volumes into the USA?

    The point here is that we have a government who are saying they will increase current expenditure in the next budget by 7%.

    But that wasn't your point because you didn't mention it until now.
    Anyhow, the 7% increase was based on a plan released long before Trump became #47 (e.g.). However, I'm sure that should the plan not be achievable now, it will change

    Decide for yourself whether our changed circumstances have really sunk in or not.

    Maybe you could elaborate on this - sunk in for whom? Why do you think they may not have sunk in?

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Even if no tariff was applied, there are few circumstances in which current expenditure should increase 7% in a budget.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,816 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The government re-affirmed it in the Summer Economic Statement.

    I'm well aware the EU has no control here. That doesn't mean we don't comment on the realities and their impacts.

    Everyone should be concerned that the old reckless habits that led us to disaster by 2010 are still alive and well in our political system. The spreading of coinage among the electorate before the November US election was an absolutely reckless thing to do. At the very least one would have to be very brave to say anything has changed. As for the opposition, they'd be even worse in my view.

    The tariffs fundamentally change the terms of global trade and we need to quickly adapt here and I'm concerned that the government have not been strong enough in it's messaging to the public nor in it's policy announcements.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,816 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I'd say no circumstances tbh. It's plainly reckless what's been going on the last few years budget after budget. The fiscal council are blue in the face issuing the same warnings to the government every year and they are being ignored.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,198 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    Looking at the Switzerland situation now with tariffs, only shows how lucky Ireland is to be part of EU.

    And more great news for Ireland with big tech earnings this week, profits only going higher. They must singing and dancing in Government with the mountain of corporate tax coming in. Trumps attacks on pharma are going no where either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 690 ✭✭✭michael-henry-mcivor


    Trumps utterances / deals seem to change regularly-

    A deal is not a air tight deal it seems-



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,393 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    What distilleries have closed ?

    I know Kilarney closed but that was a small operation that really had nothing to do with a trade war.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,462 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Waterford went into receivership and Fercullen/Powerscourt is in examinership looking for a buyer.

    A lot of others have paused production including Midleton, Roe and Co.

    Killarney seems to havd had specific site issues but the trade / tariff aspect may be making it harder to get more investment capital.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,091 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    Not many actual deals, just frameworks.

    He views trade as a zero sum game, once you see that, it’s very easy to see why countries treat him as they do. He is easily played.



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