Tesla Talk 2

more the bingo card -

I forgot that there will definitely be some sort of Optimus video showing it do something amazing but not really useful. Available to buy a home unit of Optimus in 2026 for $25,000. It won’t ever happen.

There will be a 69,420 joke in there somewhere - musk hasn’t realised yet that the world tired of that joke so long ago. The Diner thing opened at 4:20pm 😬🙄

There will be a complete and total lie about the bump in sales they are seeing, but won’t say where.

Musk will spend almost all the call talking about how much they’ve already achieved with the Austin trial, ignore all the issues, and that they’ll rollout countrywide by year end - it’s the single easiest way to pop the stock in the short term - Tsla bagholders are just baying for it. The rollout won’t happen because they don’t meet the bar for the regulators, and they’ll blame the regulators for not seeing that their camera-only solution is better.

Dan Ives will adjust his SP target up $50 based only on the Diner opening. 😛

There you go - saves you reading the call transcript in the morning 😀

I have a 251 Corolla hybrid van that has averaged 4.9l over the first 3000 kms of its life. Mixed driving, various drivers. It’s far cheaper to run than the 1.5hdi proace/berlingo it replaced.

TSLA. The only stock where literally you could have made $100 on a $220 per share basis within the last 3-6 months if you timed your investment right.

Also TSLA. PE Ratio (TTM)188.95.

It's feckin gambling lads, remember there have been 2 stock splits at this point, the stock is astronomically overvalued to the point that even if one of the moonshots don't come off (eg robotaxi) eventually the market will get fed up looking at this naked emperor and move on.

Unkel isn't using any of that 34c electricity though, between batteries and solar he could run the 3 arena 😂

Which to be fair is a great use of batteries and solar, but not everybody has those

Yup same here, we use too much electricity between our 3 EVs and 6 bed rural house, so I couldn't get enough in to cover use in merely 3 or 4 hours.

If I bought a second inverter or a separate battery bank and charger, along with increase to 16kva then maybe, but we do 50-70k km across three EVs, have two tech professionals that work 100% from home, and two teens that have too much preference for electric showers lol.

As it stands I'm on the BWG flogas deal, switching between them and energia for the last 3-4 years. Keeping MCC02 with my RM109 smart meter, best of both worlds. If I had less usage I'd have switched to Unkel's model years ago. Can't say I'm not envious at times, but my own bill is largely negative most of the year (winter not so much unfortunately) but I have to contrast not only with what the bills were before the solar (500+ in winter), or what fossil fuel would cost to do the miles.

2 EVs in this household, only recently got panels and 5kWh of battery so looking forward to the payback day.

Relatively high mileage, charge the tesla twice a week, 3 times per week in the summer to account for holiday home weekend trips, and charge the leaf once per week, probably getting a heat pump as the next big purchase on the house so a 3 or 4 hour window wouldn't be a smart move for us.

Like yourself, quite envious of the 5c rate that works for some

Musk appeared to spend most of the call trying to reframe literally every aspect of their business, indeed it all sounds even more ‘not believable’ than usual.

e.g They framed the sales drop as being related to “It is difficult to measure the impacts of shifting global trade and fiscal policies”

but EV sales worldwide are streaking ahead, roughly +70%, while Tesla in H1 was -13%.

Looking at commentary this morning, most seem to be saying that Tesla are running out of places to go before they can just blame their CEO.

Couple of weird bits:

Musk is saying he needs more shares and control (the contested pay packet), as they mightn’t be able to fend off a hostile takeover.

Also, the financials show they could easily be Free Cash Flow negative by Q4, which I think will be a tipping point, as the car business is funding everything for many years.

and finally, car margin was 15.0%.

2 things from my bingo card -

“Musk anticipates that half of the US population will have access to the robotaxis by the end of this year (a goal that seems unlikely given the regulatory hurdles for driverless cars). Musk added that Tesla is being “extremely paranoid” about safety.”

“As for politics, the CEO has said he is not yetdone with Washington and is now starting a new US political party called the America party.”

the SP popped almost 50% off the bottom when he confirmed he was leaving Doge and returning to managing the companies.

We knew he was lying, but it’s interesting to hear him actually say it on a financial call for one of those companies.

...

If you were famililar with his historical predictions, you shouldn't be disappointed. His comments were added to the rest the rest of the pile. It will continue to grow.

Thats been the plan for a long long time.

similar to the ‘iphone killer’ about 10 years ago, the ‘Tesla killer’ mantle is already dying out, with Tesla’s share of the worldwide EV market dropping below 10% in 2025, and they are by far no longer the key innovator in the space.
9 out of 10 EV buyers choose something else, even though Tesla’s are generally best in class and well priced. I happily maintain that the totally base €37k m3 rwd is the best all round vehicle for sale, Bev or ice, albeit my own eye is turning towards the ID3 GTX, and stay in the VW network.