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Donald Trump the Megathread part II

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,913 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    https://www.thejournal.ie/eu-us-tariffs-6762242-Jul2025/

    Perhaps I'm missing something but if Trump wants to impose tariffs on his own people should we not just let him off?

    Tariffs have the effect of raising the prices of everything, even Chinese goods will go up in price as they can get away with it

    If the US want to pay more, let them off to do so but leave your own people alone



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,529 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    The civil war in the republican party intensifies



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,427 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    If a one-sided situation persists (yeah, big assumption that the US can be consistent and follow through for years in the age of Trump policy by social media rants, and extreme political polarisation), the costs will eventually drive companies to move production to the US.

    Given the pretty open/free economic relationship we have with the US (we have been too open I would argue), if it stays unchanged long enough on our (EU) side, that could even extend to offshoring of companies and industries based in Europe to the US to produce there and export goods back here. Lost jobs, loss of skills/knowledge, damage to your industrial base.

    Eventually the USs trading partners, even the ones like the EU, Japan, SK, their neighbours in Mexico and Canada etc. that do not want conflict with them (unlike say China - Chairman Xi is operating under different rules and feels free to hit the US right back where it hurts very quickly as we saw) will be forced to reciprocate to an extent to protect themselves.

    My understanding of the economics is that it will leave all the countries engaged in it poorer in the end, and if the trade wars & mutual tariffing/blocking up of trade gets serious enough might even lead to some kind of global economic crisis, but countries won't have much of a choice if Trump/US forces this path on them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 30,191 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    That's the theory Trump has, what he is not allowing for is the cost of moving, the time it would take to set up, the availability of tradespeople to build/adapt new premises (they are being deported), and the availability/training of skilled workers to operate plants. Meanwhile he is also tariffing most raw materials. Most companies will bet on him and his rabble not lasting long enough to put any of this into practise, its not worth them wasting money even on planning, though the bigger ones might spend a few million doing a show of moving, very slowly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,133 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    But we have seen this movie before. If things get too hot for Trump, he will throw a few people under the bus and simply move on, and his supporters will move on with him.

    Even now, there is a conspiracy that it has something to do with Israel or other dark forces, rather than simply blaming Trump for making the decisions. It allows them to pretend that somehow the most powerful man in the world is being controlled by somebody, anybody, and that once he gets rid of them, everything will work out.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,427 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Fully agree. That's why it would need to be a more consistent, thought out (e.g. targetting certain sectors), policy than I think Trump (or US government) is capable of, and for the imbalanced situation to persist for years as well.

    Biden was also engaging in economic protectionism and trying to bring industry baclk to the US with the "IRA" subsidies etc. However as far as I understood, that was very targetted at certain sectors of the economy and much cleverer. It was mostly aimed at re-shoring from China IMO, rather than going after the USs own allies.

    The EU did indeed complain about the IRA as economic protectionism + unfair, but the response was more trying to do similar things at home to boost high technology & "green" industry etc., and get a few loopholes in it so that some European companies could benefit from (US) subsidies as well.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,394 ✭✭✭✭briany


    It's lucky for Trump (assuming he's in those files, that is) that he's in a position to have those files edited or outright destroyed, hearsay notwithstanding.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,156 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,108 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I would disagree with Carlson on many things, but he has been excellent on Israel. The US's relationship with them is beyond toxic and he is repeatedly calling them out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,325 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious


    Have the countries Trump is threatening the trade-war tariffs on launched a consumer price warning campaign in the U.S aimed at the U.S customer/consumer to wake them up to what Trump and Trade Sec Bessent are going to hit their pocket-books with from Aug 01 next (if he doesn't TACO again)?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,157 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    “My understanding of the economics is that it will leave all the countries engaged in it poorer in the end,…”

    Yes, that’s my understanding too - “making America great” is more about making other countries less good - thus America stands out-it’s less hard work and more time for golf.

    In the meantime The poor in America will get poorer and the rich richer also but that’s been ongoing for decades now so no change there- but tariffs will increase the divide further.

    I can’t understand though how Trump doesn’t U turn on green energy- Shirley there’s a trick or two for America to pull that would greatly increase revenue in this area whilst still worshiping at the altar of oil. It’s a natural growth industry - jobs, revenue etc etc it seems a bit daft to ignore it entirely



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,913 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    It's actually not a bad idea. Add a 5-10% tariff on exports to the US to pay for the information campaign then



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,529 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Taxing exports is even dumber than what trump is doing to imports



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,143 ✭✭✭threeball


    He could be a nice fella, if he wasn't such a kunt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,612 ✭✭✭twinytwo


    its going to be a bitter pill to swallow though and lot of companies would go bust - as the US is a massive massive market. What Trump effectively wants with the EU is for our imports to the US to have a tariff of 10% or whatever but for the US have full unimpeded access to the EU market - no safety or food standards etc.

    Ironically in all this you never hear services being mentioned - where the US has a massive trade surplus with the EU.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,427 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    He won't u-turn on that because it was a Biden policy (and to lesser extent Obama as well)…so anathema, and he's always been fairly cosy with the fossil fuel industry.

    I think the IRA has been (and will be?, some big industrial investment decisions based on it are probably not completed yet - these things are years in the planning and building) very beneficial for economies of some of the USs "redder" states where the voters fell hard for Trump, so it looks like the Democrats never got any boost from it in those places, or thanks from these voters.

    Maybe "toilet wars", pronouns, what books are in the school library and of course giving immigrants the bum's rush out are more important, which shows (to me) perhaps the median Maga-ite is not actually suffering all that badly, or in dire need of investments at home in US industry, and it's not "the economy stupid" in their case.

    Trump has scapped all the Biden green-tech subsidies I think.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,251 ✭✭✭ilkhanid


    Closely related to the 'Good Czar, Evil Boyar' trope, that the Russian-and indeed later Soviet- masses used to excuse ill-treatment by their rulers. " If only the Czar knew how they are treating us….."



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Broadly speaking you are correct , but increased prices bring with them the risk of reduced demand which is where the challenge for other countries from Trumps tariffs arise.

    You also have the potential for people shifting their suppliers to countries that have lower tariffs - Assuming Trump continues with the utter randomness of the application of tariffs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,325 ✭✭✭✭aloyisious




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,913 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Our biggest traded good is medicine, so it's unlikely they will get hit and we should be fairly alright. In the unlikely event that he puts a tariff on medicines it should have very little effect on demand as they are predominantly a need-to-have than a nice-to-have

    Otherwise that's a good point, I was reading in the papers a few days ago that apparently just the talk of the tariffs are putting small Irish whiskey distillers in trouble. Of course that's what our government wants is for alcohol to be more expensive so swings and roundabouts I think



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,179 ✭✭✭scottser


    It's just insane that we're watching Tucker Carlson develop a conscience over the past few weeks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,529 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    somehow in all the noise we missed that he is ramping up costs of visas including ESTA



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,513 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Anyone, who knows anything, about Carlson, knows this isn't his conscience speaking. It's a grift.

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,513 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Nice timing...

    1000013418.png 1000013421.gif

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,427 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    It's possibly also Putin/Russia speaking…(could be same thing).😀

    It was blackly funny to see these 2 awful foreign policy cliques of the MAGA Republicans (pro Putin and pro Netanyahu/Likud) clawing at each other before + shortly after Trump decided to attack Iran!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,394 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Yes, although I don't really care what the motivation is. MAGA grifted its way into existence. If it grifted its way into oblivion, that would be a fitting and somewhat poetic outcome.

    The only thing is that the whole worldview is so based on cynicism that you can say one thing one day and a totally different thing the next and your followers don't really pull you up on it because they're so conditioned to this philosophy of nothing is true, everyone lies and everyone is as bad as each other.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,157 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    So ESTA is doubling in price I think? And there’s a 250 dollar integrity fee for some visas, refunded if you leave before the appointed time?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,569 ✭✭✭✭castletownman


    Much like Prinicipal Skinner being caught at La Maison Derriere, Trump was only on Epstein Island to 'get instructions to get away from there'.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,529 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Been a while since I got one (and not planning going anytime soon)

    But esta site says price increase from $14 to $21 (Canada by comparison is 7CAD) but this could be old price increase and they haven’t yet updated system for BBB

    Elsewhere there’s talk of increase to $40



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,157 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    It will hardly provide a noticeable rise in income for America - might pay the wages of say 500 new ICE agents per annum



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