US/EU trade talks go down to the wire

Kermit.de.frog · 05-07-2025 10:11PM #1

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-07-04-2025-39560611?st=GQe8dh&fbclid=IwY2xjawLV395leHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHllb1H56u5W-pB-TPWloBKWDFs5xmr_CMgXAs0LsmAxm0TAQIfXNkxeWxjay_aem_H5ReOsLOxsAJ3aaqJ7UICg&sfnsn=mo

There is just over 3 days left to reach an agreement in principle on trade between the US and the EU.

What we know for certain is that there will not be a comprehensive trade deal because it's just too large and complicated to negotiate in a short time frame.

The EU is seeking for some tariffs to be lower than Trump's 10% baseline but accepts most goods would remain at 10%. Highly problematic and damaging but at least not horrifying.

The EU chief negotiator gave a pretty glum update on Friday to member countries regarding the negotiations but they'll keep going until the end.

Failure to reach an agreement, at least in principle, will see tariffs across the board rise to at least 20%.

It's thought Trump won't go to the threatened 50% but there is no confirmation of that yet.

Ireland is uniquely exposed and vulnerable. The finance minister is sounding the alarm on our budget projections. A 20% tariff will lead to job and trade losses which may need government intervention but our single biggest threat comes from the pledged sectoral tariffs especially on Pharma.

It looks a forlorn hope that any deal would address the sectoral tariff threat. It looks like the best result would be accepting the 10% tariff but having the assurance on the sectoral ones.

If the EU can't get that then they'll be very disappointed. It would be the same "deal" as the UK basically.

Then there is the nightmare scenario for Ireland that no deal is done at all and a tit for tat tariff war begins.

There is a lot at stake in the next few days.

Do you see an agreement being reached?

astrofool · 06-07-2025 11:57AM

Its not an EU deal until it goes past the wire.

The EU always ensures the deal is to its benefit and will go the no deal route until then and will react to protect itself if the deal doesn't happen.

I could see a few days of trump panic then kicking the can for another 90 days.

China is watching the current American idiocy with aplomb and will be happy to work on a side deal with the EU.

CelticRambler · 06-07-2025 12:49PM

I'm sure we'll have a deal in two weeks. A big, beautiful deal.

And then you can speculate on how this will lead to the downfall of the EU that you've been predicting for over a decade!

astrofool · 06-07-2025 01:17PM

I will add that it's a very unfair match up for this particular low experience, low skilled, US administration to be negotiating with the EU who effectively do this full time and have experience with every country in the world so they'll be able to tell the bluffs immediately. They could easily end up with a deal worse than than the UK.

What this might mean is a "deal" gets agreed and then they pipe up about it again when they realise what they've agreed to, leading to a long drawn out process (but effectively remains the same as can kicking, bar a few days here and there).

The "threats" of the tariff has Ireland's (and the EU) exchequer in a very good position wrt US trade.

Podge_irl · 06-07-2025 02:19PM

There is no "wire". Its a completely fake deadline by an unreliable simpleton with a track record of backing down.

The chances of an actual comprehensive deal are obviously zero, though the heads of something may be agreed that will be giving away token elements that ultimately mean very little to appease someone who doesnt understand trade whatsoever.

banie01 · 06-07-2025 02:32PM

The US is relying on EU panic over exports particularly in the Food, Agri & Auto sectors. I just don't see the pressure hitting a level where the EU really needs to buckle.

The big ticket EU exports to the US such as Pharma, are already protected from tariff via WTO. The goods that aren't tariff exempt? Aren't really immediately substitutable by the US to equal alternative.

The impact of the tariff itself, well EU exporters can carry on with their current pricing and let the US consumer pay the tax. Which is what I believe the position should be. Until US consumers realise that a tariff is a tax levied upon them and not the exporter? This BS about tariffs "replacing" US taxes will continue to be touted on that side of the pond.

Similarly on anything we bring in from the US, any reciprocal tariff is a cost our consumers will need to bear. The thing is? EU consumers are already quite used to being hit for VAT and while we price that in, a further tariff on top will see EU consumers move to substitute goods and the US is in a far more precarious position there than the EU is.

There is far less US exports that can't be replaced via alternative sources. Be it IP or hard product.

The EU's need for a deal is far less pressing than the US. Indeed the US is already seeking tariff exemptions for its military exports and complaining about US companies being excluded from EU rearmament scheme. €800bln and no slice of that for the US MIC will focus minds on a deal there far quicker than any tariff on other US exports.

Podge_irl · 06-07-2025 06:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123609027#Comment_123609027

Aaaand case in point

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/06/bessent-trump-tariffs-deadline-august-00440522

Kermit.de.frog · 09-07-2025 03:55PM

The FT is reporting the EU is rushing to complete a framework deal that will involve higher tariffs in key areas than the UK.

https://www.ft.com/content/309da423-5c85-4697-9a82-c2dc1343250b

Also, seems highly unlikely the threatened sectoral tariffs will be included in any agreement.

Red Silurian · 10-07-2025 05:04PM

I wonder if, as part of the deal, the yanks will want us to remove the unfair taxes we have on their alcohol products, namely MUP

Seth Brundle · 10-07-2025 10:05PM

Are you referring to the likes of Bud & Molson Coors which are brewed in the EU so subject to the same taxes as other EU brews?

Kermit.de.frog · 12-07-2025 04:21PM

The US has proposed 30% across the board tariffs from August 1st. This would be a disaster for the EU but for Ireland absolutely devastating. We are looking at serious number of job losses and trade disruption.

The EU insist they remain at the table.

astrofool · 12-07-2025 04:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123627662#Comment_123627662

Are you going to proffer when the TACO will strike?

Seth Brundle · 12-07-2025 04:29PM

Where exactly will these job losses happen in Ireland?

What is to suggest that we won't see TACO yet again?

Lastly, what is the point of trade discussions between two trading blocs if one of those can just ignore the discussions and make their own rules just like that? Is that how a stable trading relationship is made?

greenfield21 · 12-07-2025 04:34PM

Big pharma is exempt and I am not sure how big tech will be impacted so considering this Ireland avoids disaster on this one. The Irish Government will be happy and probably more so Trump didn't call out Pharma.

banie01 · 12-07-2025 04:36PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123627690#Comment_123627690

+1, if this is Trump & Co's tactic all the EU need do is confirm that they are always available for negotiations but that any unilateral tariff imposition will be met with reciprocity.

If Trump wants to abandon the WTO whilst managing an economy that even for the ability to manufacture domestically? Is extremely reliant upon imports of both raw materials, processed inputs and even labour, is the economic equivalent of knocking over the chess board because noone will let him play with the horsey.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-07-2025 05:34PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123627690#Comment_123627690

Firstly, you are assuming this is a negotiation among equals. It isn't. EU countries need the US far more than the other way around.

Secondly, have you considered that actually the US has very valid reasons for being unhappy with EU trade practices especially when it comes to American multinationals?

Thirdly, Ireland is horribly exposed on tax and jobs far more than any other European country. The first hit would be food and drink. We are already seeing distilleries close and job losses in that sector. Other sectors will follow.

The tax take is the most immediate threat. The bulk of corporate taxes are from companies selling products back to the US. At a 30% tariff that won't continue and if you remove those windfall corpoation taxes the country is then in a €6bn annual deficit according to the fiscal council. That change could be sharp. One month you have windfall taxes and the next month they are gone.

Then we have the job losses at US multinationals, particularly Pharma, that export high value goods back to the US.

Honestly the consequences are too vast to go into in a single post.

All we can do is hope President Trump is not serious about this.

Here is the letter

https://twitter.com/TruthTrumpPosts/status/1944034271020101900

astrofool · 12-07-2025 05:47PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123627901#Comment_123627901

If that were in any way true, then you have to explain why trump will chicken out again.

The moment the taco occurs, your points are blown to smithereens and are no longer valid (as has happened with every other statement made on the EU and Ireland).

Do you sincerely believe trump will follow through this time?

Kermit.de.frog · 12-07-2025 06:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123627947#Comment_123627947

I don't know but just the threats in themselves are destabilising and give companies uncertainty.

It might be a tactic to extract more concessions or he could be serious.

Seth Brundle · 12-07-2025 06:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123628076#Comment_123628076

There problem is that his comments are possibly creating more uncertainty in the US rather than in the rest of the world. It is just that many are too caught up in the contradictory nonsense to see it as nonsense and how it is so damaging to the reputation of the US. This is a good read...

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025/07/12/cliff-taylor-when-the-worlds-most-powerful-banker-issues-a-warning-about-trumps-tariffs-we-should-listen/

michael-henry-mcivor · 12-07-2025 06:30PM

Trump big talk again-

He always says the big Tarrifs hit is a few weeks away- then he pulls away-

Why doesn't he bring them in today if he means it-

astrofool · 12-07-2025 06:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123628076#Comment_123628076

Since the threats of tariff, the trade surplus with the US has grown by an order of magnitude, the more he does this and chickens out, the more Ireland benefits:

Irish trade surplus with US down 64% monthly but... | Morningstar

You should be cheerleading the chicken dance and give a learned opinion rather than being often-wrong.

I already outlined what will happen in the second post on this thread, the can kick, the cries of attention for a few days at a time, the chicken out.

greenfield21 · 12-07-2025 09:06PM

The UK moved to the front of the queue.

https://twitter.com/SecScottBessent/status/1944120959302316113

Jim2007 · 12-07-2025 09:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123628644#Comment_123628644

The two most desperate countries in the world do a trade deal, NOT. It's just a memo of understanding… so what…

Kermit.de.frog · 12-07-2025 09:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123628664#Comment_123628664

That memo of understanding means in just over two weeks we'd have a 30% tariff and they'd have 10%.

For Ireland that's an added competitive disadvantage too.

Bottom line here is we cannot a sustain a 30% tariff.

Danzy · 12-07-2025 09:39PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123628664#Comment_123628664

America has a much stronger hand to play in this than the EU has, if the Brits get the 10% that gives them a significant advantage.

No side wins in a trade war, but it will keep people in Europe awake while it will lightly disturb sleep in America.

As for them being desperate, the US and UK are 28% of global GDP, that's big, it's double the entire EU GDP, remember the EU performance over the last decade has been abysmal, truly abysmal.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-07-2025 09:47PM

Tariff differential with the UK is really concerning too.

Any company in an EU country trading goods with the US would be incentivised to move operations to the UK.

If a deal is done we really would want the rates to be at least level with the UK.

Kermit.de.frog · 13-07-2025 03:06AM

Headline in the Times

Ministers admit Trump’s 30% tariff rate would be ‘devastating’ for Ireland

Fears rise that the Irish economy could take a major hit as EU leaders urge US president to revoke tariff threat

This is an understatement.

The UK used it's trade independence to act fast. Ireland didn't have that option and our whole economic model which has brought unwarranted and undeserved prosperity is on the line in the next 2 weeks. We need a deal.

An inescapable fact is that most of our jobs and income and standard of living comes from the US, not the EU.

Seth Brundle · 13-07-2025 08:37AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123629236#Comment_123629236

Ireland didn't have that option and our whole economic model which has brought unwarranted and undeserved prosperity is on the line in the next 2 weeks. We need a deal.

Unwarranted and undeserved??? 🙄

As for your belief that Ireland needing a deal, are you suggesting a deal between the EU and the US or a deal between Ireland and the US?

if the former, the EU were working on a deal and Trump completely undermined those negotiations with his letter of demands. If the latter, we'd first need to leave the EU which would be stupidly damaging to our economy (and the presence of those US MNCs) and then we'd need to get a deal but at that stage we'd have lost any negotiating position we may have had.

Notmything · 13-07-2025 08:54AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123629371#Comment_123629371

You're attempting to reason with a poster who is pro Trump, anti EU, pro Ireland leaving the EU and has consistently claimed that the EU are going to abandon/go behind Ireland's back.

Theres almost a perverse wish to see Ireland get screwed over and the economy f**ked just so someone can say "told you so".

Podge_irl · 13-07-2025 10:39AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123628736#Comment_123628736

it's double the entire EU GDP

No it isn't. US (27.3) plus UK (3.3) GDP is 31T$ vs 20T$ for the EU.

More to the point you are completely misrepresenting the impact on the EU vs the US here. Hell, this whole nonsense is predicated on Trump's idiotic understanding of trade deficits - the US relies on a lot of imports.

Aurelian · 13-07-2025 11:48AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123628755#Comment_123628755

That just means eventually the EU will have to "deal" with the UK.

US/EU trade talks go down to the wire

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