Interesting articles

isn’t that the second one recently? Are they trying to highlight something?

The US DoD has nixed their M10 Booker light Tank programme. The under secretary of the Army has said.

“The Army will request to reallocate the remaining funds in fiscal 20205 to accelerate fielding of war-winning capabilities and anticipates additional significant savings to be fully realized within the next 18-24 months,”

The ongoing efforts to end or reduce procurement across the US services and redirect funds to "war-winning capabilities" should stand out to any interested parties. The ongoing economic issues between US & China notwithstanding, the pattern of Great Power competition, both military & economic throughout history, really is pointing towards serious risk of open war and soon in the Pacific.

My take on developments from about midway through Biden's term is that the USA was looking towards AUKUS buying them a level of deterrence against China. I don't think Trump will abandon AUKUS despite placing it under review but, I do think that AUKUS won't have hulls built before China takes action in Taiwan and within the South China Sea.

The "delay" of any transfer of Virginia class SSNs to Australia may well be considered given the US is struggling to reach it's 2 hull per year build targets. If AUKUS delivery is delayed beyond 2032? It plays directly into China's hands and the reported timelines of 2027 for any Taiwan invasion.

The Chinese effort to provide 40 J35s and K500 AWACs to Pakistan, is IMHO an effort to ensure India faces a serious threat on the Pak border to ensure that China will have a relatively free hand in their South and Western regions for the next 10yrs or so.

Unless India can buy F35? The Pak deployment of 5th Gen fighters guarantees them a degree of air superiority and operational freedom until India inducts either the AMCA or buys a foreign 5th gen.

The interplay of economics and military risk ongoing at the moment? Would probably end up being a fantastic narrative history if we didn't have to live through it 😉

I'm off to reread the "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000"

The entire procurement chain in the US at the moment really seems to be gearing up towards immediate supply rather than future capability.

Unless they can ramp production of their AIM-260, LREW & AIM-160 to ensure they can match Chinese magazine depth of their own PL-15, PL-17 & PL-20(XX) the US will face serious range impediments versus Chinese fighters.

The US has advantages in Stealth & Sensors but it has been outpaced in range and the Indo/Pak skirmish demonstrates that nations outside the US & NATO have perfected the networked Killchain. With weapons that outrange the US? That means the Chinese currently have a massive advantage in A2A and AD that they may well seek to exploit before US catches up.

I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with? I'm assuming my theory on likelihood of potential for imminent Pacific war? Apologies if I'm wrong on that.

As otherwise, I pretty much hold the same opinion of the cause of the lunacy in US procurement and agree with you on the impact.

In terms of ship building and the cuts in procurement. I fully agree, it's absolutely insane. China is already massively outbuilding the US in hull numbers and has the capacity to swamp them.

Similarly with aircraft production. The J20 is via some reports that approx 300 in service, with production at 100 - 120 per year. The J35 is in serial production and the capacity must be similar as reports are Pakistan will have 40 inducted by mid 2026 as well as it entering service with PLAN and PLAAF.

Couple that 5th gen output with the 100 J16s per year and the 40 J20s and China's production capacity Vis a Vis the US quickly becomes almost a mirror image of the US capacity in WW2. China can currently outbuild anyone but are reliant upon energy and food imports.

The US still holds comparative advantages in that it is food & energy independent and aside from some rare earth's is incredibly capable of self sufficiency. Or rather it would be were it not for it's reliance on globalised supply chains. It's actual military capacity and it's logistics ability are still the best in the world but, surely you agree that the rising risk of new technology introduced by China is approaching a tipping point where their numbers and tech at least match the US if not outmatch it?

The US military looks like it’s being hollowed out for “jam tomorrow” promises and to cover the insane budget plans of the current administration,

Agree, there is what appears to be a reliance upon potential wunderwaffe as the US sword & shield. Rather than the expert opinion, the preponderance of experience and risks of conflagration.

The current US admins approach to space located sensors, radar and whatever else it chooses to use? Incredibly risky IMO. Especially when the insertion of satellites into orbit are in a large part reliant on private enterprise, outside of military control.