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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,908 ✭✭✭Villa05


    If rent caps are suddenly lifted, you'll supercharge house prices, then the degree of unaffordability in the rental sector will be felt in the home buying sector.

    Give a 4 year gradual lifting of rent caps. Unblock all the supply constraints in building and rental supply in that period,



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,260 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    4 years is too long to wait.

    Rumours that the cap will be raised to 4%, but that it will be removed completely when the tenant leaves, so the LL can then revert to market rent/whatever they want to charge.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,908 ✭✭✭Villa05


    From the Tennant perspective 4% is overly generous. Compared with the latest Daft rental report, many tenants are paying less than half the market rate locally.

    Need to look at a different way of closing the difference. Would suggest existing tenancies can charge a graduated percentage of market rent as follows

    Year 1 60%

    Year 2 70%

    Year 3 80%

    Year 4 90%

    It'll take 2 to 3 years for new supply to come on stream, certainty around rent pricing should accelerate the volumes.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,227 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    That is why a proper punitive vacancy tax is needed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,227 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    The problem with this is that it incentivizes the landlord to evict on some pretext in order to put up the rent for the new tenant.



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  • Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 5,588 Mod ✭✭✭✭spockety


    One of the challenges is that in terms of supply and demand, there's a not insignificant amount of demand coming from outside the state. Wealthy people who don't even live here are buying up houses, particularly in Dublin, and they have no real limit to what they can pay or are prepared to pay. This is a distortion which could be fixed by punitive taxation or outright bans on foreign buyers. Ireland would not be the first country to do this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,908 ✭✭✭Villa05


    In addition, I would introduce a blanket tax on rental income to level the playing field.

    The rate of tax rises when rental inflation exceeds the general rate of inflation and falls vice versa



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74 ✭✭Woah


    In reality the LL already raise the rent to market rate once the tenant leaves if the are not registered with the RTB which many aren't so I dont see this making a huge difference in increasing investment in the private rental sector



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,260 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    I think its aimed at securing funds for new investment.

    The idea being that the funds will no longer feel their future investments will be capped and so they will increase presence in the market and fund new developments.

    I dont think its primarily aimed at mom and pop landlords already in the game.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,159 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    The cap should never have been set as anything other than the rate of inflation. When they first introduced the 4% rate it was unfair as inflation was running at 0%, when inflation was running at 10%+ landlords were unable to keep up with their own costs

    Removing it completely is a bad idea as then you are left with crazy high rents that lead to the much hated rent pressure zones and you are caught in an infinite loop

    The rental sector is a very complex beast and regulating it needs complex legislation. I would propose that rental rates should be a set amount decided upon by an outside body. The idea of me paying more than my nextdoor neighbour or moving over the road to get cheaper rent is foolish



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,260 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    A cap of any sort is discouraging investors. No investors means no new rental builds.

    If we want more rentals to be built its hard to see how the cap can stay.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,159 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    The cap in its current form can't stay. A cap that isn't directly reflective of inflation is crazy one way or another, but having no cap would drive rental prices nuts and add to our homeless figures, which are already in crisis mode.

    Unless we build many more houses we need a cap to protect the people from homelessness



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Rent is a contributing factor to inflation and it would be following late. Areas change and become more in demand so inflation isn't really the factor for higher rent. If an area improves the quality of rentals increase as does their cost to maintain and upgrade and rents go up with no connection to inflation.

    RPZ was always a cheat to keep inflation and rent down and make landlords pay for it while making investment less likely. Many older landlords are kind of trapped into renting because if they sell the government will take hefty CGT and then when they die their children pay hefty inheritance tax.

    I get you are looking only from tenants' point of view but you have to see that it has to be balanced in order to be stable and fully functional rental market. If 2 identical houses on the same road can be radically different rent prices just because a landlord didn't keep the rent inline with the market 9 years ago we have a serious issue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,260 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Not removing the cap will drive our homeless figures up. Simply because no new rentals will get built.

    We cant build more homes for rent without removing the cap. Thats the point.

    The govt will probably need to subsidise the rent increases that come from removing the cap, at least in the short term, until supply catches up and rents naturally deflate.

    Sticking with what we are doing now and leaving the cap and RPZ in place is the worst option of all, as new supply will literally dry up and homelessness will increase; New jobs and investment will start to bypass the country altogether.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,159 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    There's no silver bullet, there needs to be a very wide approach to this. If the govt don't want to get houses built they need to look into buying any property being sold by a landlord.

    For landlords there should be an upper cap imposed based on the size of the property, number of bedrooms etc. That cap then rises with inflation. Such a move would put all tennancies and landlords on an equal playing field. Landlords can then look at an investment property and see what their return will be at a glance and tennants get a degree of long term price security

    We could also pull a lot of tennants out of rental properties if the 100% mortgage makes a return.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    So the government down valued landlords properties by introducing the possible rent via RPZ and then get to buy them at a lower price. Doesn't sound fair.

    I already explained why properties go up in value not related to inflation and you want to decide how much they can make and curtail the benefits of the risk they take. Why would a landlord buy a rundown property do it up and rent in an area hoping it would improve? In your eyes if that happens the landlord should not get the rewards but the tenants should. This is precisely how many areas become gentrified and areas improve. Of course shops can up their price in the area as it is a free market. That is not a equal playing field but a sense of entitlement to profits/income made by a landlord. Are the tenants going to pay the landlord if they lose money on their investment?

    100% mortgages are a bad idea. Instant negative equity if something happens



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,227 ✭✭✭Emblematic


    I believe when a tenancy is registered, the rent is not asked for by the RTB and hence they have no way of enforcing the cap when new tenants move in.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,159 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    If you start thinking about homes as places where people live, rather than profit machines, you'll see it makes complete sense

    We have minimum levels required when a property is rented out... The landlord that buys the rundown property and gets it ready for rental has likely spent less on it than the landlord that buys turnkey



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Homes are always places where people live. Property however has costs and needs investment no matter what idealised way you want to look at it. Food is essential to life but still has to be paid for.

    You seemed to have completely misunderstood what I said about investment in property. A landlord buys a property in a rundown area that wasn't rented before will still need to spend money to bring it to rental minimums. The level of improvement and costs is determined by the investor. They can do the bare minimum of they can massively improve the property. They may do so because they believe the area is improving and can sustain higher rents. They may lose money if this doesn't work out and/or it may take much longer to recoup the investment. You want to reward such risk when it makes a profit to give that to the tenants that took no risk and also don't care if the landlord/investor loses money.

    I get it you want magic property where the tenant wins every which way because you don't think anybody should make money off property because they are homes. That is your belief to hold but don't say you want a fair equal playing field when it is not what you want. Private landlords/investors are not responsible for housing people at a discount that is the government.

    Your ideas are all about magic where investors should not care about making money and will still invest and create housing. It just won't happen and the government know that and are responding.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    @Red Silurian

    Here is a turnkey minimum standards rental property

    https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/house-562-north-circular-road-north-circular-road-co-dublin/6142240

    How long before an investor would get a return ?

    How much more money do you think they should spend improving the property? Should rents go up as a result?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,159 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Buy it this year, sell it next year, that's a return of 1 years rent (18k at €1500pm) plus whatever the price goes up by in that time



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Well if you are going to be that ridiculous you are not being serious.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,159 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    You asked how long before an investor saw a return, I gave you an example of a 1 year return of 18k… What's so ridiculous about it?

    Edit: just read the advert to say it's a 65k rent per annum (4.4k/month) crikey



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    It is less return than putting the money in the bank without any of the risk and effort. You are assuming the property will increase in value, aren't consider tax, insurance, repairs etc…

    You are like a child with your understanding of economics. No investor is going to do such a stupid investment for a year as property is a long term investment. Not many are full cash buyers so most likely a loan is involved so no real profit on their investment for many years as in decades while there is a risk and liabilities. Tenants do just stop paying rent

    You want all the perks of investment for tenants and no incentives for investors. Just admit you don't care about people who invest in property and want some idealised version of a housing market where investors don't make money.

    It isn't going to happen as it will mean less rentals when we need much more than we have.

    If you don't think that property needs investment to bring the standard up we have very different views on what rentals should be like. If there is no reason to invest money in rental properties the standards will just keep going down as exiting lets will not be well maintained.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,159 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    A bank would give you more than 65k on an 800k deposit, as in, an 8.1% interest rate? I'd love to know who you're banking with



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Absolutely no understanding. 65K is gross rent so you get less than half of that and then there is the expenses along with estate agent fees when selling it, CGT if the price went up. You would be lucky to clear 4k if prices stayed the same after all fees, tax and costs.

    That is if you had the cash but with a mortgage you would lose money. So when I asked you how long before the investor gets a return the answer is certainly not a year



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,908 ✭✭✭Villa05


    There is 5 units in the building including 2 beds * 3, a studio and 1 bed

    Bargain rent for Dublin assuming all units are occupied

    There`s your housing czar, let him/her replicate what they've done here all over the country



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,159 ✭✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Important to note you would pay DIRT on the interest of your bank. You're also assuming you will need to put work into it to the tune of €28.5k which is laughable

    Taking out a mortgage on something worth €800k, assuming you have the 30% deposit required for buy-to-let, according to the AIB mortgage calculator you're looking at a monthly repayment of about €3k/month for 25 years.

    If you don't adjust rent prices and pay 50% of the rent in Income tax you're looking at a net of €2,700. So you're effectively paying €300 a month for a house on Dublin's North Circular Road. After year 1 you've effectively paid €3,600. Apartment price inflation in Dublin is running at 3.9% so you're looking at selling for 831,200 after 12 months

    That's a €27,600 profit in 12 months, again assuming you don't raise the price the tennants pay for doing very little, if any, work

    And 2% more in rent allowed every year under current rules, 65k becomes 66.3k, becomes 67.6k without lifting a finger



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,046 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    One thing is sure and that the owner didn't buy the property at that price. There are very few people that would truly want to live there even if it was brought up to a higher spec.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,362 ✭✭✭cute geoge


    Why would people not want to live there ,is it a very rough area .

    Imo on face value it looks ok value wise unless there is hiden reason for sale , I can not imagine it will sit for too long at 800k .Would you expect more then 8% yield for the likes of this?



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