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Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,627 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    IMG_5888.jpeg

    They are laughing at him altogether now, so much disrespect, not wrong tho



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 598 ✭✭✭vswr


    Suddenly, a lot of the supporting logistics and troops have come into missile range today



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,664 ✭✭✭zv2


    Anyone for chess? Russia's long term strategy.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,328 ✭✭✭Large bottle small glass


    Fairly sober analysis of the challenges facing the prospect of a European Army.

    "Europe on paper has nearly 2 million personnel in uniform and spends roughly $338 billion per year on defense, more than enough to deter Russia and enough to make Europe collectively a military power. But the numbers on paper do not match reality. Europe’s militaries are way less than the sum of their parts. Many of these forces are in militaries that are not ready to fight. For all of the chest thumping about NATO’s strength, its wartime operations in Libya and Afghanistan have all demonstrated the challenges of coordination. Thus, the goal of a common European force is to reduce incessant multilateralism, shrink the number of relevant militaries, and thereby minimize the duplication and waste, and create a more cohesive fighting force."

    It doesn't go near the problem of renegade states like Hungary and formerly Poland which might not be trivial.

    Maybe the external threat that is the Russian Federation can help to reignite the European project which has been stumbling along since the Euro crisis and later the refugee crisis which lead to Brexit and the rise of the right all over the continent.

    As ever, and well Putin knows it, when you want to talk to Europe who do you call.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,565 ✭✭✭swiwi_


    Ghostbusters



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,163 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    It's amazing how many Americans have now completely accepted Trump's myopic view of their relationship with Europe.

    They just accept verbatim that the relationship is one way, that the US sustains all the costs and that Europe reaps all the benefits. If anything, the reverse is true. The Americans are actually getting a bargain, their role as policeman of the world yields extraordinary benefits.

    In exchange for the implicit security guarantee, Europe accepts the Dollar as the reserve currency of the world. We accept much of the worlds trade needs to be conducted in Dollars, that banks must keep significant sums of US treasuries as reserves, we exchange tangible goods and services for printed Dollars, we operate in their Swift payment system because we accept their dominance, we finance the consistent US trade deficits. We allow US tech companies to operate in Europe with only minimal restrictions, we invest vast sums of capital to prop their stock market up (50% of the S&P 500 is held by Europeans), we provide a market for their goods and cheaper educated labour.

    After seeing the mess the British made with Brexit, you think the Americans wouldn't be so stupid as to repeat the mistakes of damaging trade, but here we are…



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,152 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    It doesn't matter how much of a bargain it is if it is not affordable. Getting a new Rolls Royce for $150k may be a bargain, but it's irrelevant to me, I don't have the money.

    The US simply cannot continue to be the world's guarantor of security, no matter how beneficial it may be if it could somehow manage it, nor how much it wants to (unless it wants to also dramatically increase the defense budget even more than it is now). The trade war/tariff thing is idiotic and I'm sure you can find plenty of statements on that matter on the Trump thread, but that doesn't change the military balance which, whether Europeans like it or not, has shifted away from Europe. If US interests are to be furthered by stability and a lack of major wars, then it has little choice but to hand off responsibility where it can so that it can be successful at deterring wars where it cannot hand off responsibility.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,627 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Not being nasty to your supposed allies is free

    Edit: like clockwork

    IMG_5889.jpeg

    By pulling out if Ukraine and Europe and even actively punishing them while supporting Putin one does not “deter” Russia/Iran/N Korea and China (quite the opposite) who are learning from this war unlike the Americans who are too busy politically purging their military Stalin style



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,167 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    The Americans have had people in Ukraine studying this war since Biden and they'll still be there post trump. These 2 things you said are not mutually exclusive.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,627 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    The North Koreans and Chinese and Iranians have people and equipment actively fighting in this war

    Manic and yourself are welcome to point to concrete examples of US troops being trained by Ukrainians in either Ukraine or outside, because there is examples of the Danish and the Brits for example specifically learning from Ukrainians about drone warfare with training going on in both directions now

    The focus in pentagon now is how to survive Trump political purges and DOGE cuts, not how to learn from current wars and fight future wars

    Ukraine has massive experience in warfare now, while US spent over two decades hunting goat herders with AK rifles across hills only to be run out of two countries after wasting trillions there

    Manic has fallen under the delusion that China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are not an axis that’s interconnected at multiple levels, it be like Americans preparing to fight only Japanese in WW2 while actively aiding the Germans and Italians (hell those countries of the original axis did not even have land connections with each other)

    Sooner or later US will find itself in yet another war, but this time it’s “allies” who keep getting shat upon will and their populations will say “nah we good, good luck there”



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,809 ✭✭✭✭josip


    What an absolute and total embarrassment. Imagine having that as leader of your country.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,634 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    Can't afford to? Or can't afford to while continually failing to adequately tax the US oligarchs?

    As far as I understand it, until Trump's nonsense began, the US economy was thriving yet it still ranks embarassingly poorly in most measures of income inequality, educational attainment, healthcare, life expectancy etc.

    Rather than looking at some future war in Asia, the US should be looking inside it's own borders. A civil war is frankly the only chance left to save their country from the MAGA idiots and the oligarchs funding them imo.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,167 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    You talking about getting run out of Afghanistan but if America applied the same level of depravity the Russians do I don't that would have happened. It's not possible for American to occupy a hostile country long term anymore if they follow international warfare law's to any extent.

    Regardless imo any serious military in the world is studying this war in great detail and will prepare as such.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 266 ✭✭tarvis


    surely it’s China, North Korea, Iran and Mr Trump.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭Paddigol


    Again, that's not the issue here. It's not the handing off of responsibility it's how it's being done. It's like seeing a fire break out in your neighbours house, who you've been telling to get fire alarms and an outdoor tap installed for years. But now, despite him recently taking steps to fire-proof his house, you'll sit and watch his house burn down because you told him that you wouldn't be allowing him to use your tap in future.

    Your analogy of the Rolls Royce doesn't add up either. Nobody's asking the US to buy anything new - they already own the Rolls Royce - they just need to keep it serviced and put fuel in the tank. If the US wants to burn its existing relationships with NATO allies in public then it can prepare for the costs that come with that down the line. Nothing comes free in life… there's always a bill to pay in the end.

    The US wants to sit on its hands in relation to Ukraine, but is going out of its way to prolong the war in Palestine and frustrate efforts of any other nation to end it. It all needs to be seen in the round - you can't just say "yes but this is the Ukraine thread and the US is entitled to focus its spending on the Pacific". It's all interconnected, and the Trump administration has and is behaving disgracefully.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,627 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    There is no evidence that now in 2025 Since Trump arrived in whitehouse there has been cooperation and training between Ukrainians and US

    The US military is paralysed by cuts and purges and whiplash changes in policy on a daily basis

    There is evidence of European NATO countries doing just that however in both directions



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,328 ✭✭✭Large bottle small glass


    1000023605.jpg

    Google gives me that on a simple search



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,167 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    I'm sure when Mexico tries to invade America they'll really regret it. And if America pulls another Afghanistan I hope they get their arses kicked. Regardless all western militaries are watching Ukraine and adapting. One thing though if it was the US fighting Russia in a non nuclear war it wouldn't be a stalemate like Ukraine. The US would also go into a military economy if needed and would dramatically increase production of artillery and other weapons systems.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭EmergencyExit


    That's who Americans voted for, they knew what he was like and said "yeah that's the guy i want to lead us". It's the American electorate that are the embarrassment.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,693 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Further advances in Sumy with the capture of Konstantinovka today.

    Fighting on the outskirts of Novonikolaevka and Yablunovka and fighting continues inside of Yunakivka currently.

    Total captured 140 KM2 of Sumy, twice what Deepstate is now claiming and 5 settlements more.

    sumy.jpg deepstate.jpg

    "if you get on the wrong train, get off at the nearest station, the longer it takes you to get off, the more expensive the return trip will be."



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,152 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    The cooperation between the opposition powers is precisely my point.

    The idea that the US can be Europe’s shield against Russia in Europe, Taiwan or the Philippines’s shield against China in the Pacific, and the RoK’s shield against Best Korea on the peninsula all at the same time (plus the odd other contingency here and there) is simply flawed. It can’t do it. It would have not been able to do it in decades excepting that China hasn’t, until recent years, been much of a viable threat, and the US has not been shy about saying that the time is coming.

    What the US can do is deal with Russia, China, DPRK, Iran sequentially, assuming the opposition are nice enough to cause trouble one at a time. I don’t know about you, but I would not be particularly reliant upon the other side being quite so accommodating, however. What would happen those two US divisions currently in Eastern Europe do you think if Kim decides to have a crack at Korea while their long-time allies decide to go fo Taiwan, and what would Russia do as a result?

    Whatever about the insults and the immature actions of Trump, even his leniency to Putin which I hope is finally coming to an end, the military situation doesn’t care. Russia can attack a militarily weak Europe which is in a trade war with the US, or it can attack a militarily weak Europe which is doing good business with the US. GDP values and warm fuzzy relations between Europe and DC don’t destroy BMPs. It has taken Trump chaos for European nations to realise they cannot rely on the US alone any more which has been the case in reality for some years.Yes, he has insulted Canada, both about its sovereignty and its possible involvement in the ridiculously named Golden Dome. Yet Canada is still a part of NORAD and is talking about being part of Golden Dome because, mockery aside, it is a desired fill for a capabilities gap which would benefit Canada no matter what it’s called and what jabs are thrown by the US president.

    For better or worse, the only reason the world’s military stability seems to be being increased is precisely because of the Trump chaos. It may be completely unintentional by Trump, but if it means that the Western powers can as a group (co-ordinated or not) keep a lid both on Russian desires in Europe and China/Korea in Asia, then I’ll take it as a plus.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭Paddigol


    Do you not think that a stronger Western response to Putin's invasion of Ukraine would have nipped a lot of the threat you're talking about in the bud. The ability was and is there for the West to cripple Russia's ability to grind out advances in the manner it has been doing for at least 2 years now. Had Russia been humiliated like that, the US would be very much freer to turn its focus to the East without having to wonder what sh*tstorm is bubbling away in Europe, and the Europeans would have gained valuable experience from the initial cooperation with the US in pushing the Russians back to their borders. Not to mention the fact that the Ukrainians would be able to provide a lot more of the boots on the ground to reduce the jeopardy of coffins coming back to the US.

    Its the dawdling that has allowed Putin to maintain this Emperor's New Clothes image of a strong man, and which has surely caused the Chinese to question whether they've put too much stock in the West's stomach to get involved in a dirty war.

    There was no moral ambiguity about what should have been done when Putin rode across the border to start his decimation of Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. On a risk/reward or cost/benefit analysis, it's hard to see what the US (and this isn't on Trump) and the European's didn't just pull their heads out of their arses and do the right thing.

    All this talk of "but the Chinese and North Koreans" is to gloss over the fact that the US is in the current predicament due to a large part it's own foreign policy failings and failure to kick the Russians in the balls as soon as it became apparent that the Ukrainians were well up for and up to the fight.

    The US don't even recognise Taiwan as an independent sovereign nation so what are they getting so worked up about. It can't be morals, surely?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭EmergencyExit


    This is all on Europe. Still not doing even half of what's required to help Ukraine in regards weapons. Putin doesn't respect weakness.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,627 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    His leniency towards Putin has not come to an end tho

    In last two weeks Trump has

    • Promised to hit EU with massive tariffs which he then postponed hurting what are meant to be largest US allies
    • Refused yet again to further tighten sanctions on Russia which would have helped US energy producers that are squealing about being killed by OPEC+ (which includes Russia) flooding markets


    So he is actively yet again hurting allies and Americans while helping enemies



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,152 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    I agree, and have said as much in the past, it was a combination of lack of will and lack of capability. You can argue which was the more influential.

    None of that changes where we are now, and where we should be in the future. The 'now' is the Western powers able to fight one major theater at a time. The future should be the Western powers able to fight two (Fortunately China and Korea are geographically close). We appear now to be moving in that direction.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,847 ✭✭✭macraignil


    Europe is not to blame for the russian federation being a terrorist state who's leader believes it needs to be at war for him to look good and hold his geriatric deranged grip on power over a weak willed people willing to die trying to kill their neighbours rather than take power away from putin who even Donald Trump can see has gone "crazy".

    We have seen before how the armed forces of Ukraine have slowly given up territory in small amounts to allow them eliminate more of putin's terrorists and what you report sounds like more of the same.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 686 ✭✭✭Bitcoin


    It's always the same with the orcs.

    They launch these huge massive human wave meat assaults, they get absolutely destroyed losing massive number of troops and equipment and all for the supposed gain of maybe a few hundred metres of territory.

    What's happening today is no different.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 686 ✭✭✭Bitcoin


    Zelensky should have just decked him when he had the chance a few weeks ago.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,809 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Of the 3 scenarios that you mention, surely only China attacking Taiwan is realistic?

    Do you think that NK could make any inroads into ROK? The only armament advantage that NK have are their nukes and China won't let them use those.

    How do you envisage that Russia would be able to launch an attack on Europe? Although the European response so far has been less than adequate, if Russia starts gaining more territory in Ukraine, Europe would certainly step up its support to ensure that the line of conflict remains in Eastern Ukraine and doesn't move to the border with Poland.



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,152 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    I don't see why any of them are not realistic. It doesn't even matter if the three of them are achievable, it only matters what the respective leaders believe is achievable, and to quote Ghandi, "our words are backed with NUCLEAR WEAPONS." Not that they may necessarily use them, but that they do at least provide a certain level of protection from consequences. Even the most hawkish Westerners aren't talking about striking Moscow to take Putin, after all. (At least, I don't think they are). Certainly there was a difference of opinion between the Western governments who felt that their level of deterrence (sanctions like nobody has ever seen and last minute shipments of weapons) and Putin over what acceptable costs would be.

    European militaries certainly believe Russia is going to be a threat to Europe again in a couple of years, there are plenty of such statements to the press. China has declared the intent to be capable of taking Taiwan by 2027. That just leaves Kim, and especially if the Chinese support him with all those troops which can't be airlifted/shipped to Taiwan (If they're going to annoy the US anyway…), they can well believe they can make a crack at it. Especially if they think they will have a good first strike in the decadent, peace-loving imperialist RoK.



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