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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05


    That's a narrative driven by politics and media, two sectors identified as big contributers to the last boom bust cycle

    Almost everything the construction industry federation lobby for is granted. The criticism is unwarranted

    Same hen house guarded by 2 foxes

    Leverage the dysfunction



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    You'll get no argument from me about the housing narrative being driven by politics and media. That's the crux of the problem.

    That's why I am of the belief is that the only way the problems can possibly ever be solved is by a new single issue political party running on housing.

    If such a party ran on the commitment to fixing the problems, ignoring the narrative and making the necessary politically unpopular decisions, without concern for re-election, I reckon they'd get as many seats as Greens did in 2020 election - ie sufficient to join a coalition and take responsibility for housing portfolio.

    None of the current politicians will solve it because they are too concerned with criticism in the media and other vested interests.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    So what you want is a bunch of politicians to sacrifice their careers or some non politicians to go into politics and be super effective but go against the will of the majority? That doesn't sound viable or effective. Look at grass root movements over the last 20 years and see how many survive few years without imploding. There aren't many that survive without some scandal or internal fighting. The public criticism of such organizations is not minor either. SF tried to get into power with promises of housing reform which the public just didn't trust and didn't get into power.

    You are dreaming and might as well suggest a magician comes along and solves the problem. The public are responsible for many of the issues in housing because a lot of people own housing and due inheritance from property. What most people arguing about housing want is to take it away from others and get it cheaper.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,919 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    What most people arguing about housing want is to take it away from others and get it cheaper.

    Seems like you're trying to make this sound like a bad thing.

    Cheaper and equal distribution of housing is an ideal scenario really.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    It sounds great when it is not your stuff being taken. If I have paid my taxes and bought something why is somebody else entitled to it for less than I paid for it? It is one thing if it loses value but another thing completely if it is going up in value.

    I am sure you know people less well off than you, why aren't you giving them your stuff?



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    some non politicians to go into politics and be super effective but go against the will of the majority?

    I'd like to see non politicians form a single issue housing party and go into politics. If they get enough seats to enter coalition government they would have a mandate. No different to the Greens in the 2020 election and last government.

    Look at grass root movements over the last 20 years and see how many survive few years without imploding. There aren't many that survive without some scandal or internal fighting. 

    That's kind of the point. Life expectancy of the party might only be one term in government.

    The public are responsible for many of the issues in housing because a lot of people own housing and due inheritance from property.

    That's also kind of the point, and exactly the reason why the current parties won't solve the issue. Too large a proportion of the electorate are alright Jack, and for those that are not there is no party to vote for who will solve the problem.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,919 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    Yes because that's exactly what I meant, let's have everyone give away all their stuff. You know that's not the point I was making and I'm not going to argue with you when your stance is purely "I'm alright Jack".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    You really can't see how ridiculous what you are saying is. Who is going to vote them in? They wouldn't even be able to remain stable enough to form a party because they will all be extremists and will fight internally. It is completely different to the Greens as they are not a one view party. They got into power because the government already has to do much of what they want with EU agreements. Then they got blamed for everything they administrated but had already been agreed.

    You want to go against the public and have a minority party given free rein over the rest of the government. It is completely laughable as a suggestion at present. Maybe in 20 years time it could happen but nobody is going to say they want to pay more inheritance tax while rich people can avoid it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    It is what I said and you said that is what most people want too and the ideal. I never said give away all their stuff just that you seem happy when others have stuff taken away it is fine with you once it is not yours. That is truly "I am alright jack" . Can you explain why anything should be taken away from anybody else so the another person gets it cheaper? It has a name and it is communism.

    What most people arguing about housing want is to take it away from others and get it cheaper.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Who is going to vote them in? 

    The party would hope to attract votes from voters who hold views more akin to @Rocket_GD than those voters who are concerned about maintaining price increases and inheritances.

    I believe there are enough of these voters to gain a dozen or so seats.

    We're constantly told about the crisis numbers of the guts of 500,000 young adults living with parents - presumably a fair chunk of them are not sitting around delighted watching their inheritance rise. There is another 300,000 odd renters who have no vested interest in the status quo.

    Leaving aside the fact that not every single property owner in the country is purely of the I'm alright Jack frame of mind, that's 800,000 potential voters in just those two demographics above. In 2020 the Greens got into government with 155,000 first prefs.

    I am not suggesting setting up a single issue party and gaining 12 seats would be an easy task, it is absolutely not, but it is nonsense to say it is ridiculous because there are no sympathetic voters.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Fianna Fail got nearly 70 years of power by being effective in delivering affordable housing

    Ones wealth should not be defined by others being crucified, homeless or penniless

    Asset price appreciation via suffocation of supply is a high risk game. The wheel always turns

    I speak as a homeowner not an asset holder. My interests are best served by a sustainable affordable market that washes its own face

    My job and Home are put at risk by government policies. Most other homeowners will be in a similar position. It's tough paying a mortgage, tougher paying taxes to fund price and rental appreciation. Use my taxes to increase supply not price. We and the broader economy all benefit when the property market is stable and affordable



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,919 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    100% I'd vote for a party who were serious about fixing the housing situation and I have purchased a home in the past 6 months. People tell me that I should be happy about prices increasing but that couldn't be further from the truth.

    I don't care what value my home has on paper, we can afford the repayments and have no intention of selling within the next ten years. I do care about friends and family who can barely afford to save due to high rents or are getting consistently outbid by cash buyers on properties going 15% over asking prices even in rural areas.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Yeah every renter is going to agree with your views. You are assuming an awful lot. Like the assumption is I want prices to keep going up. I object to taking property off people and then subsidising somebody else so they can buy it cheaper. Lots of people don't want the government to take assets off people.

    None of you can justify why something should be taken off somebody else so somebody else can get it cheaper.

    It is very easy to say you are happy to have stuff taken off somebody else when it doesn't affect you. That is the ultimate "I'm alright Jack". Very easy to spend others' money. Telling landlords to reduce rent is very easy when it is not your money and you aren't subsidising the tenant you expect the landlord to do. The sense of entitlement to others' money and asset is absurd. Can I asses what you have and dish it out to other people?

    Keep dreaming or actually create your own party and prove me wrong.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I've no idea why you're ranting about the suggestion that government should take assets off people.

    I certainly didn't suggest anything of the sort and would be absolutely against the idea, not least because I am a property owner myself.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,854 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    About 69% of adults in ireland are homeowners.

    It is likely that a large proportion of that 69% vote in General Elections.

    Not all of the 69% want to see prices continue to rise, but I'd say a lot of them do.

    The young adults living with parents may be planning to emigrate and generally dont vote in high numbers anyway.

    A large proprtion of the 300k renters are foreign born and are not eligible to vote; Our voting electorate no longer reflects accuratley on our population.

    All in all, the homeowning voters have greatest numbers and they are voting for the status quo.

    They won't vote for a single issue housing party when they dont belive in that single issue and have other concerns they wish to see addressed.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    All in all, the homeowning voters have greatest numbers and they are voting for the status quo.

    They won't vote for a single issue housing party when they dont belive in that single issue and have other concerns they wish to see addressed.

    There is no doubt that a single issue party would be fishing in a smaller pool. But the numbers suggest it is a large enough pool to get seats.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭Blut2


    in 2022 31% of Irish households were renting. And also in 2022 41% of people aged 18-34 were living with their parents.

    Presumably very large numbers of those paying rent would vote for such a party, along with large numbers of young people forced to live at home, and along with the parents of said young people who'd like them to be able to move out.

    The Green party only got 4.7% in 2007, and 7.1% in 2020, and managed to have a huge influence on the governments, and governmental policies, that resulted from each election.

    It would depend on any Housing Party being milquetoast enough on all other issues that they could attract voters from across the spectrum, but pending them doing so theres no reason to doubt they could find themselves as a powerful kingmaker on only approx 5% of the vote.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    Then why are you ranting and raving at me? That was what I was talking about but you blindly assumed I was talking about other points you wanted to make. You should try reading what people actually say rather than assuming they are making points against your ridiculous view



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Erm, I'm not ranting and raving at you, or assuming anything, this exchange started because you quoted my post about a single issue housing party and I replied specifically to what you posted.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    The greatest con by the government was pointing to the green party as the reason for bringing in unpopular policies that the country already had to do. Point to any policy you think the Green Party made happen and you will mostly find it will have be part of EU agreements or other agreements the country committed to.

    How long did it take the Green's to get into power? We already have People before Profit and independents who can't get along. If you all think a new party can form, agree and then get votes quickly enough go for it otherwise it is a complete dream. Then they have to be effective with little to no political experience nor experience dealing with the civil service.

    Nobody has given a reason why somebody else should have their assets and money taken so other can have it cheaper. That is what we are talking about because you have to get the properties cheaper than they are now and somebody has to lose out. Even just building affects others so they lose out and we have seen lots of people consistently protest and prevent building.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,351 ✭✭✭Ray Palmer


    You think you made completely coherent points? You did certainly assume I was "I'm alright Jack" and wanted prices to continue to rise. You certainly are raving about political party magically appearing and getting voted in on one issue because you believe house prices and rent are peoples' main concern.

    What are the policies that are so unpopular that you don't think the party could last? It really has to involve taking properties off somebody either by punitive taxes or punitive legislation. Unless you can explain some other way. Look at what happened when the went near pensions, what do you think will happen if they go after their assets?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    I didn't post any assumptions about your views - I said "Too large a proportion of the electorate are alright Jack"

    We can agree to disagree.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,803 ✭✭✭hometruths


    It would depend on any Housing Party being milquetoast enough on all other issues that they could attract voters from across the spectrum

    I think this is key. A credible, single issue housing party would have to be genuinely agnostic on any issue that did not directly affect housing with no party line on anything else.

    Hence it would be important that anybody involved was motivated by a genuine ambition to try and fix the problems at hand, without any overriding ideological bent. If somebody's proposed solutions are either extreme left - eg tax rich developers and landlords into oblivion - or extreme right - eg ban all immigration and deport foreigners - then they would be no use to a credible party.

    You would need to start from the position that there are essentially two problems that need to be solved:

    a) not enough supply on the market to buy or rent and b) taxpayers burden from housing is too high

    Important to recognise that solutions to (b) are not practical if it means making (a) worse. Solving (a) is the priority.

    And every proposal or policy would need to be evaluated solely on the grounds of whether or not it would have a realistic and beneficial impact on the above, with no political or ideological considerations.

    The biggest barrier to establishing such a party is finance and fundraising, as there are very strict rules on political fundraising designed entirely to favour existing parties - public funds are given to parties in order to ensure less reliance on, and thus influence from, private donors. Good idea in theory but in order to qualify for public funds you need to be an established party and have contested elections, so it is a bit of a catch 22. I guess crowd funding could be able to help with this.

    I think in the first instance you'd need 6 to 8 people to form a party executive and get some sort of coherent strategy in place on policy, communication, candidate selection etc. T

    These people would have to have no overwhelmingly strong ideology, a genuine interest and ambition to fix housing, and a willingness to enter politics without being too political.

    Sounds like a tall order but if anybody reading this thinks this sounds like an interesting idea, PM me and at the very least we can discuss the pros and cons further.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 176 ✭✭Eclectic Econometrics


    Which is the apartments one? It is not apparent from the titles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05


    https://open.spotify.com/episode/1fTnhlvDMroiSVXA8ylrkg?si=7yZJy2VoT6qjBo2aq7mFqQ



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 176 ✭✭Eclectic Econometrics




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05


    More headwind for gov revenue/fdi/employment

    20250512_080643.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭2lazytogetup


    is property now overpriced? would you be buying now or will there be some soft landing or crash in next few years. im looking to buy but thinking ive waited this long, i may as well wait for prices to come down. tks



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,037 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Property and rents are extremely expensive, but that does not nesecarilly mean they will drop in the short/medium term. Government policy continually increases price.

    The risks associated with property increases, these risks feed through into the economy, jobs investment etc



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