India v Pakistan getting worrying (again)

People tend to say colonial powers used divide and conquer. It was more like exploit existing divisions and conquer, with local willing participants.

Do it German style, one side cuts, the other picks.

Only recently started looking at it out of interest, never something I'd have had any real knowledge on.

Updating my older post, seems footage emerging. Border attacks for now (although heavy exchanges)

The Pakistani Information minister is on Sky News currently and has confirmed that 2 Indian planes have been shot down and that the Pak response is ongoing.

I wouldn't put much store in any shoot down claims until I see wreckage. Also claiming that all strikes within Pakistan have hit civilian targets including a mosque and residential buildings.

Only catching up on this. 8 dead being reported on Sky News now, including one child. Nine sites were hit

https://news.sky.com/story/pakistan-attacked-with-missiles-as-india-says-it-targeted-terrorist-camps-13362775

India said it had carried out a "precision strike" on "terrorist camps" and its actions were "focused, measured and non-escalatory in nature", adding: "No Pakistani military facilities have been targeted."

It said a total of nine sites were targeted and the action by its armed forces was a response to a militant gun attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir last month, which killed 26 people, mostly Indian tourists.

The Pakistan defence minister, Khawaja Asif, has told Reuters that his country's air defences have shot down five Indian planes in retaliation.

Oh great, another excuse for them to raise the price of everything over here and blame it on another war.

The key motivator has and always will be influence. For varied reasons.

What Trump and is ghouls are doing is removing that influence, which in turn see countries look to others or become less dependent.

By every single metric that means America in geo political terms will have less influence.

Those principles are certainly the way of the world - and in general I’m in agreement with them - but I can’t put out of my mind just how insular America is becoming - future war is certainly a reason that makes some “sense” - it’s as if they know what’s around the corner and they’re making preparations - as you say nothing they do makes much sense but when viewed through the lens of war, conflict and limited natural resources, the explanation is somewhat clearer - America is undergoing a personality change

Pakistan are now claiming 5 IAF aircraft and a drone shot down.

If as is believed, the Indian Air Force launched it's strike via missiles fired from aircraft flying from within Indian Airspace? The logic of the Pakistani claims for the 5 aircraft (Apparently 3 Rafale, an SU30-MKI & a MiG29), make little sense in that particular context. It would mean that the PAF managed to shoot down 5 aircraft deep inside India.

Now the recent acquisition by the PAF of JF17-III and J10C along with rumours of China providing the domestic version of the PL15 do mean that they have the technical capability to do so. It would also mean that "who fired 1st" descends into an awkward situation for Pakistan and their position.

Important thing to remember about the images circulating that show a "Dassault" airframe burning. Is that the image isn't great and whilst it does confirm a component supplier name on the wreckage, it may well be a Mirage III/V component rather than a Mirage 2000 or Rafale. The Mirage III/V is in service with the PAF as an attack aircraft.

As it stands, apart from the Pakistan Drone claim, I take the 5 IAF aircraft shootdown claims as unlikely. Unless of course, Indian aircraft penetrated Pakistani airspace, in which case they are facing a far more formidable and integrated air defence system than in 2019.

Edit

There are emerging photos of wreckage from the Indian side of Kashmiri border near Sinigar of an airframe that does appear to be a IMO Dassault Mirage 2000 rather than a Rafale.

Srinagar does have an airport but it is approx 100km as crow flies from the LOC. This would place any aircraft operating from that airport within the maximum engagement range of the Chinese domestic version PL15 which is believed to have a 300km max range.

There are also reports of 3 IAF "crashes". In terms of competence and professionalism, I'd rather my pilots were shot down rather than crashed 👀

As always this is a fluid situation of misinformation, claim and counterclaim so take all sides with a grain of the proverbial Himalayan.

More video and info surfacing of the claimed shoot down(s) aftermath. It also appears that at least one analyst is confirming that at least 1 Mirage 2000 has been shot down. Based on engine, intake configuration and it's being equipped with MICA missiles. (Also used on Rafale, but aircraft has different engines X2).

This article links multiple twitter posts but again, not the best journalism (AI) and bias.