India v Pakistan getting worrying (again)

banie01

Unnamed French intelligence official confirming to CNN that at least 1 Rafale has been lost and they're reviewing possibility of more.

A high-ranking French intelligence official told CNN today that one Rafale fighter jet operated by the Indian Air Force was downed by Pakistan, in what would mark the first time that one of the sophisticated French-made warplanes has been lost in combat.

Pakistan claimed earlier today to have shot down five Indian Air Force jets in retaliation for Indian strikes, including three Rafales. Indian officials are yet to respond to the claim.

The French official told CNN that French authorities were looking into whether more than one Rafale jets were shot down by Pakistan overnight.

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/india-pakistan-attack-kashmir-tourists-intl-hnk#cmadq2i4j00003b6tu7krhsys

The loss of a Rafale is a serious blow. I posted last week that

Indian media & public opinion is screaming for a military response. Some of the reporting and OpEd is very strident. The thing is, unlike in 2019, if the Indian Air Force cross the border, they are very likely to take losses. Losses that India currently can't really afford given the state of their air force procurement and their security situation Vis a Vis China and Pakistan.

The loss of a Rafale esp when they hadn't crossed into Pakistani airspace, is a PR boon for Pakistan. It also will be spun as a vindication of Chinese weapons as it will be claimed as either a J10 or J17 launched PL15 that scored the kill.

Dassault will be all over this to assess just how the loss occured and if SPECTRA can be updated to counter the Chinese missile threat.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123424776#Comment_123424776

I’m not sure “insular” is quite the right word. Yes, the current administration has cooled on Europe and it may seem insular to European eyes as a result, but face it, Europe can take care of itself. If you look at the reconfiguration currently happening in the US military, however, it’s not a 1930s style isolationism with the homeland being defended by fleets and aircraft, but they are configuring for a war on the far side of the Pacific Ocean. Countries like Poland, France, Germany and the UK are capable of taking on Russia. The Philippines, Indonesia or Taiwan are not capable of taking on China, and I am at a bit of a loss to find reference by the current administration (or actions without statements) that they are looking to leave the US’s Pacific partners without support. It’s more a reprioritisation.

igCorcaigh

Reminiscent of the "Kargil War" of 1999, but I have faint memories of an Indo-Paki clash later that year, December, just before the Millennium? I could be wrong!

banie01

Ongoing exchanges of fire across the LOC along with Indian drones launched against Pakistani radar and AD sites.
Pakistan are claiming at least 25 such drones shot down aswell as civilian casualties.

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/1920423612202254462

Reports are emerging that up to 125 aircraft were involved in operations during Operation Sindoor. Both IAF attack and PAK defenders. It is interesting to note that all reports to date confirm that neither side crossed either the border or the LOC. Both Air Forces operated entirely within their own airspace.

https://twitter.com/Arrogant_Fazal/status/1920307685800513846

Of particular interest for the Aviation nerds, is that given both sides operate active radar BVRAAMs is that the reports tend to illustrate that the Aircraft of both sides made multiple approaches, broke off and repeated. Where an approaching IAF plane was locked up by a PAK radar, it broke off and then attempted to find a new approach vector to launch its weapon before being locked up again.

The PAK AF and its J10C and JF17s have a marked advantage over the IAF if this is the mode of Attack/Defence that played out. India operates 3 primary active BVRAAM, with the MBDA Meteor the longest range AAM they operate and that solely on the Rafale. Its got a 200km range, that range is dependent upon altitude and loft. Given the attack profile needed to keep detection times to a minimum, I'd really suspect that the entire IAF strike was flown at relatively low levels. that would severely limit the range of the IAF AAMs perhaps by as much as half.

To counter that, the PAF were flying CAP/Air Defence missions.
They likely had their aircraft above 30000ft, supported by AWACS and ground radars aswell as having some intel via people near IAF airbases to give warning of at least take off times of IAF. At altitude, the J10 & J17 have both Radar advantage, via look down/shoot down and energy advantage for their BVRAAMs.
The export vesion of the PL15 (PL15E) has a declared range of 145km, The Chinese have also supplied the "full fat" version of the PL15 with a 300km range in the days after the Pahalgam attack. It really does appear that the PAK planners and pilots managed to take full advantage of both altitude and missile range in their defending against the initial IAF attacks.

India's pressing further attacks within Pakistan rather than just within Pakistani administered Kashmir is an escalation.
From the initial operation Sindoor messaging of not directly attcaking the Pakistani military in the hope that would allow an off ramp, they have now broadened their attack to being directly on Pakistan and Pak military.
The off ramps are rapidly diminishing and despite Pakistan's economic woes?
The Indian escalation will be very hard for Pakistan not to meet in kind without loss of face both domestically and internationally.

roosterman71

Is it just me or does the term "dog fight" not belong in this story? They were flying in their own airspace, possibly lobbing missiles from 160km away at each other. That isn't a dog fight in my eyes but a game of "handbags".

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123429107#Comment_123429107

I'd agree with you on that but, its the language that particular commentator used. I didn't.
I don't know that Id call lobbing BVRAAM at engagement range limits "handbags" either though.
I do get why it appears to be like throwing shapes, but each shape thrown is pricey and if it doesnt explode?
An intel gift to the opposing country and Bloc.

It is AFAIK the 1st large scale engagement where both sides have been armed with long range active radar guided missiles and that it descended into something resembling groups sizing each other up by pushing and shoving alá a Friday night closing time, is both fascinating and has long been expected.
Programmes after ACEVAL/AIMVAL posited the likelihood that all aspect weapons would mean air combat could descend into mad charges and retreats built around engagement ranges rather than manoeuvering onto the enemy 6 for a shot.
Changes in Fighter combat that began with the introduction of "All aspect" IR guided missiles have now evolved to include the BVR domain.
The ethos that drove the F22 programme, in 1st look, 1st shot, 1st kill philosophy has again been proven paramount IMO.
I dont know how much of either nation relied on network centric shooting, where the enemy is detected by AWACS or AD radar and the position passed to the shooting aircraft via datalink, but it is the new norm within US & NATO.

The advantage that accrues with being able to keep your radar off but to have a well developed radar threat picture shared to the cockpit is huge.
Couple it with a missile that outranges your likely opponent?
And you likely win most engagements.

It highlights the urgent need the US has to bring AIM260, the LREW and the AIM160 into service to offset and counter the current Chinese AAM range advantages.

TheValeyard

Seems Pakistan have launched a drone swarm assault

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1920501299394552131

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1920500613294473499

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123429256#Comment_123429256

I’m not sure what Handbags is, but I’ve heard the combat described as “not dogfight, more dodgeball”

Esel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123430874#Comment_123430874

Think two women swinging handbags at each other 👜 😀

igCorcaigh

Explosions reported in the city of Amristar, India.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1920869602801705420

Kermit.de.frog

Ugh this is one of those forever conflicts brought to us courtesy of the Brits drawing arbitrary lines on maps as they made their way towards the exit. Depressing.

banie01

Explosions being reported in vicinity of Srinagar airport. The airport is owned by IAF and operates military as well as civilian flights.

https://news.sky.com/story/ten-explosions-near-international-airport-in-india-administered-part-of-kashmir-officials-say-13364562

TheValeyard

Good news

Looks like a ceasefire in the works

poop emoji

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123432696#Comment_123432696

You oppose two state solutions with Muslims?

slay55

if India and Pakistan both started firing nukes at each other , would this affect the pollution in the air above Ireland and much of Western Europe?

Esel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123435050#Comment_123435050

The entire northern hemisphere probably.

StrawbsM

Think the ceasefire may be over. Haven’t seen an official newsfeed report it though

https://twitter.com/pratyayprateek/status/1921235336316739905?s=46&t=IY-y8V-cxTAz1djkZYvB6A

TheValeyard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123435160#Comment_123435160

Ah was it like one of those Russian declared ceasefires?

banie01

The posts over on the various sub-reddits dedicated to India, Kashmir, Jammu & Pakistan all point to the ceasefire already being abandoned.

https://www.reddit.com/r/india/s/CWYpAsDx7F

https://www.reddit.com/r/Kashmiri/s/UsTC3EvdYt

Many of the Indian sub-reddits have descended into fairly overt sectarianism as have the Pakistani ones. Parsing anything truthful, pertinent or even accurate is impossible, it's a proper hatefest across them now.

Theres also quite a lot of chatter on discord about Pakistan using their ATACMS analogue to strike some Indian bases quite heavily.

https://defence-blog.com/pakistan-strikes-indian-bases-with-fatah-missiles/

If Pakistan were the ones to break the ceasefire? It speaks to them being given quite concrete assurances of support in equipment and finance by China. It would strongly imply that China sees advantage in the conflict continuing a little while yet.

banie01

Claims emerging from India over the last day or so that they used S400 to hit a Pak AWACS at the range of 315km during Operation Sindoor strikes.

Along with claims for a C130, a JF17 and 2 F16s. That AWACS would be in addition to the one that is reported destroyed in the ground during Sindoor strikes. Which brings Indian claimed kills to 6, coincidentally 1 more airframe than Pak AF are claiming they destroyed of the Indian AF.

Neither sides claims should treated as accurate without confirmation.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/four-air-launched-missile-strikes-by-iaf-on-may-10-and-pakistan-was-on-mat-101748052752432.html

India’s S-400 air defence system in Adampur went into action no less than 11 times during Operation Sindoor and destroyed a Pakistani SAAB-2000 airborne early warning system as far as 315 kilometres away deep in Pakistan.

Indian Air Force also has proof of its missiles having downed one C-130 J medium lift aircraft, a JF-17 and two F-16 fighters on ground and in the air, they added.

Important caveat to the above claim (and the Pak claims too) is that whilst the IAF are claiming "proof" they've released nothing. No radar tracks, no images, nothing. Nor has Pakistan regarding their claims but, at least 3 acknowledged crash sites have been identified within India, and China are making great hay of the claims in recent airshow efforts to sell the J10CE, including adding kill markings to the demo model.

banie01

India has today tacitly admitted that some aircraft were lost during operation Sindoor. Yet it has done so in a manner that evades naming types, numbers or indeed causes.

https://trt.global/world/article/b2d3cf27a426

"What matters isn't how many jets were downed, but the reasons behind it," Chauhan said. The highest-ranking Indian general called Pakistan's claim of downing six Indian jets as "completely false", but refused to disclose India's actual losses.

Chauhan said the priority for the Indian military was to learn from the incident.

"We identified the tactical error, corrected it swiftly, and within two days, resumed operations with long-range precision strikes," he said, adding that the Indian Air Force "flew all types of aircraft with all types of ordinances on the 10th".

In the effort to downplay the potential effectiveness of any Pakistani response to Sindoor, India is really running the risk of portraying it's planners and pilots as the cause of their losses. Versus analysing the potential effectiveness of the purported Pakistani "Kill Chain" tactics.

It also plays in to my previous post where I highlighted the Indian effort to out claim the Pakistani claims of 5 aircraft destroyed. India needs to ensure their public sees "parity" at the very least in the face of the losses assessed.

Along with claims for a C130, a JF17 and 2 F16s. That AWACS would be in addition to the one that is reported destroyed in the ground during Sindoor strikes. Which brings Indian claimed kills to 6, coincidentally 1 more airframe than Pak AF are claiming they destroyed of the Indian AF.

There is a growing consensus amongst AV geeks that Indian AF took losses and that in terms of their current inventory is unaffordable for them. That said, the real winner of the skirmishes to date is undoubtedly China and their efforts to showcase their military tech.

banie01

It appears that the Pak AF claims of 3 Rafale, 1 Su30 & 1 MiG29 shot down in the opening exchanges of Operation Sindoor were indeed accurate. An Indian MP has confirmed the losses.

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/india-cover-up-rafale-losses-pakistan-fighter-jets-shot-down/

I would reiterate my own thinking on this, that the losses are as much a failure of Indian planning as they are a success for Pakistan rearmament and training.

A week before Op Sindoor kicked off I posted on this thread that.

The new aircraft and A2A missiles, in particular the J10 & the J17 block 3 operate Chinese supplied PL15 missiles. There are 2 versions of that missile, the export PL15E (145km range) which is what Pakistan was initially supplied and the domestic Chinese version (300km range).

There are reports from the past week that China has armed Pakistan with the 300km version directly from PLAAF stocks. Aswell as that, there are also reports that Turkey has made very recent arms deliveries too. Both versions of the missile outrange the Indian R77s and Astra's, and the Chinese domestic version outranges the Rafale's Meteor A2A meaning Indian strike package would be outranged and at risk from Pak air defence.

The Indian Air Force is, and has been in crisis for the past 20yrs. It is vastly understrength, currently fielding 31 fighter squadrons, which will drop to 29 with retirement of final 2 MiG21 squadron's in October. It's authorised fighter strength is 41 squadrons. Yet it is facing Pakistan & China as strategic threat in the NE & NW. Pakistan fielding 25 fighter squadrons, and China with 66 fighter squadrons although fielding approx 25 within range of India.

China are also now fielding 5th Gen fighters en masses & Pakistan will also soon start inducting J35.

Whereas India's 5th Gen is expected to enter service in 2035... And given Indian equipment induction timelines, it will be late.

There are now demands within India to seek immediate purchase of a 5th gen fighter to counter the Sino/Pak 5th gen threat. Their only options are US F35s, or Russian Su57s.

My thinking is that given the Indians already build the Su30 and AL31 engine. That they will seek a manufacturing license for the Sukhoi and upgrade their domestic manufacturing line to be able to build the Felon.

I don't think it's the right plane for them, but necessity means they are running out of options.

I'd also expect the Indians to try and get on board with either FCAS or GCAP as a means of getting a more capable airframe than their laggard AMCA. I'd expect the French to seek Indian partnership on FCAS, esp if the Dassault/Airbus partnership falls apart. The Japanese would likely be the Indian path into GCAP if the UK & Italy agree.

banie01

Another development in the wake of the May skirmish.

Pakistan have not only claimed they shot down 4 Rafale, they yesterday released the tail numbers of the Rafale they believe they destroyed.

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/pakistan-claims-downing-four-rafales-india-tail-numbers-revealed/

Speaking at a press conference organised by the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), Lt Gen (R) Kidwai, a senior adviser to the country’s National Command Authority (NCA), disclosed the tail numbers of the destroyed Indian Air Force (IAF) Rafales as BS001, BS021, BS022, and BS027.

Pakistan have revised their claims now to 7 aircraft. The 4 Rafale, 1 Su30MKI, 1 MiG29 & a Mirage 2000.

India have still refused to put a number on their losses whilst they do acknowledge that some occured.
There is growing rumour that India are going to do a direct G2G deal with France to buy 114 Rafale and that will lead to a deal with about 60% local production and integration. India desperately needs fighters to ensure they can continue to deter Pakistan & China.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/banking-on-rafale-jets-france-on-track/?amp

I would add that the performance of Rafale during Op Sindoor is a reflection on incredibly poor tactical use and a gross underestimate of Pak/Sino technology and missile capabilities.

banie01

Pro-India media are on the warpath again and seeking to pin the Delhi blast yesterday evening on Pakistani backed militants.

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/op-sindoor-2-0-india-pakistan-showdown/?amp

Serious risk of escalation again on the Pak/India border.

There was also a suicide attack in Islamabad today that Pakistan are blaming on Indian agents.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/11/11/islamabad-bomb-blast-live-12-dead-in-pakistan-capital-in-suicide-attack

banie01

There are reports that Pakistan is moving armoured forces closer to the border and the LOC.

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/pakistan-preemptive-army-mobilisation-india-tensions-2025/

There is also some new reportage from Time on the current escalation and the broader context behind both countries wider security threats.

In particular Afghanistan for the Pakistani side and the threat of China and the Sino-Pak axis for India.

https://time.com/7333189/india-pakistan-car-explosion-suicide-bomber-attack-terrorism-afghanistan-taliban/

Also important to note that since the May clashes, that the tension on the Indo-Pak frontier hasn't really dialled down (Despite what Trump might say).

Indeed earlier this month, both sides held large Naval exercises almost directly facing each other along their disputed sea border delineated from Sir Creek.

Also important to highlight that recent thawing in Pakistan - Bangladesh relations and the move of Bangladesh away from India and into Sino/Pak orbit threatens India with strategic encirclement.

At a time when India is weaker vis a vis China & Pakistan than it ever has been and when Indian influence in Bangladesh is lower than it ever has been since 1971.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pakistan-plans-navy-drills-in-zone-that-overlaps-indian-exercises-101762024657490.html

https://zeenews.india.com/india/night-time-drills-shallow-water-operations-indian-armed-forces-carry-out-brahma-shira-drill-in-sir-creek-area-pak-on-edge-2982113.html

Potatoeman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123979773#Comment_123979773

Pakistan doesn’t have control over the northern border region with India, it has a radical Islamist problem there and another in the Eastern side with Afghanistan. Both were likely different Pakistani Islamists just not government affiliated. This why India brought in the zero Islamic migrants policy:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68538260

Potatoeman

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123824867#Comment_123824867

How many new Chinese radar and AA launchers did they have in the area? It’s not a good reflection on the new Chinese equipment.

banie01

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123982597#Comment_123982597

Open source intel puts the Pak SAM deployment of the newer Chinese systems (HQ9 & HQ16) at no more than 8 batteries in the entire country in May.

3 HQ9 batteries and 4-6 HQ16 (based on my own reading I put the HQ16 at 4-5), each battery is based around at least 1 radar but usually more aswell as networked radar availability too, and 6-8 launchers.

It also supports a notion that they were/are deployed primarily around population centres rather than deployed to cover airbases and command posts.

I'd call that a serious strategic failure on Pakistan's part TBH, especially given the reported successful Indian strike on Pakistan's nuclear site in Kirana Hills (denied by both sides, but widely reported) and the successful Indian strikes on Pak airbases.

India's tactics at the outset of Op Sindoor?

We're incredibly flawed IMHO, flying strike missions using their best plane as a launch platform without flying any effective SEAD or DEAD missions before the initial Brahmos is Scalp launches?

Was a wasted effort.

Indian Ops from day 3 on were far more effective.

The initial op on day 1, flying strike packages against an Air Force that had AWACS aloft aswell as AESA radar equipped fighters with 150km + range AAM and networked shoot capabilities?

Was poorly planned and at least IAF command recognised that and shifted tactics in subsequent ops.
The initial strikes were not only telegraphed, they were a poor use of each airframes best attribute especially given the lack of Meteor AAM deployed to protect strike packages and potentially outmatch the PL15 equipped Pak AF fighters.

banie01

Multiple sources reporting that former Pakistan administered Kashmir PM Anwar Al Huq has at least linked Pakistan to the Red Fort attacks last week.
Most sources say "Claims responsibility".

The risk of open warfare, rather than skirmish or targeted assaults has ratcheted up to a level beyond May and even 2019s confrontations.

https://twitter.com/defencealerts/status/1991171519788306927?t=OlGgbaJPTDXoMjGl76ewlw&s=19