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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,226 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Or more importantly as is often the case more or less bidders with more or less access to funds may have been involved.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,280 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    it’s what attracts the bidders that’s important.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,226 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Not really.

    It's blind luck a lot of the time for similar houses.

    All you need are two people with access to funds and desperation to push up a house price.

    If you have two people looking at the house beside it without the same access to funds or desperation house price tends now to go up.....all other things being equal or even unequal.

    Location is the key factor really.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 865 ✭✭✭jams100


    Spot on, have a read of this completely botched HSE IT upgrade…essentially they went with the cheapest supplier and got what they paid for.

    Then you have the children's hospital, the complete opposite with new cheques been written out every month.

    I dont know if the guy who was getting 420k was worth it or not, but, 420k is nothing in the context of the billions we are spending, and if these jobs were done right we'd be saving multiples of this anyway.

    The opposition jumping up and down on something minor like this rather than focusing on putting forward their alternative suggestions makes me sick.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭hello2020


    What's your thoughts on buying new Vs second hand house as old houses R in matured location while new house have good energy rating..

    New house will have long life n it increase in price in long term compared to old house.

    Old house have more space than new house !

    What's best if one has to decide?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,108 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Private second hand home is going to be more achievable than a new build, when the govt are frequently buying/renting new builds because they aren"t building social homes themselves.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,414 ✭✭✭✭o1s1n
    Master of the Universe


    Location and space wins every time. As long as it's not a money pit I'd always go with they over a new build.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,226 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Location - every single time unless there's significant work needed on the better located house.

    Energy ratings are a bit of a con job in reality - and you'd be surprised how many issues you can have with a new A rated house that you won't have with an older house - particularily given some of the horror stories around how some building work is now done and the relative "unproven-ness" of some of the methods/technologies used over time. (People will argue with this opinon, thats fine)

    Older houses can be made more energy efficient and if that is the only thing that concerns you, I'd be going for location all day long.

    Depending on your circumstances - being close to a school (national/secondary/ideally both) is massivily important if you have or are planning to have kids. It's something you sometimes only really appreciate when you have kids but it's massive. This is one tick box in relation to location. You'll be ferrying kids to and from school for 8 - 15 years each or relying on public transport, be great if they could walk or cycle…….what kind of premium would you pay on this? You'd heat/retrofit a house with the money and time/hassle you'd save on transport in the first few years or pump a lot of oil into the house to have it toasty all winter long, and be doing your bit for the environment!

    Same for closeness to work, ability to walk to shops/pubs/restaurants - obviously the house may not tick all the boxes location wise.

    Not much point having a cheap to heat house if you have a 700KM - 1000KM commute every week or similiar.

    Never mind the actual matureness of the estate (lack of management fees etc, larger green areas, larger house plots) that you often find in older and generally better located estates.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 275 ✭✭hello2020


    Thanks a lot for detailed info...we have found a new build overlooking beautiful park.... Park views sitting inside the house ...

    downside is lots of social housing around, not good public transport

    n kids school 6 km away...

    in the same budget we can get 20 year old house in Lucan near school etc…

    Hard to decide which one to go for ...views from new house are beautiful but daily driving time will increase!!

    Post edited by hello2020 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,226 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    The reality is any new estate is going to contain some level of "social" housing (general) - this isn't necessarily a bad thing. There can be "social" housing in mature older estates also, either on rental scheme or indeed houses bought by the council - again not necessarily a bad thing.

    I don't know the specifics at all so please disregard but the views will get old very quickly while the additional driving time will be a constant and if anything with further new developments in the area might only increase. If access to public transport isn't great, that's even more of an issue. Lucan (as far as I am aware is fairly well served by busses and there are several schools near the village, all with decent pedestrian and cycle infrastructure to them (just from memory) but that may be the case in the new area you are going to also.

    The school thing would be significant for me generally but maybe not as important for others.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,873 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The salary and the person is irrelevant when the process is dysfuntional and the new person has no powers to change anything.

    It just adds increasing dysfunction

    The political/lobbying influence on property for the last 3 decades has been nothing will be done unless it increases price. Increasing price makes it more difficult for the next buyer > increase land prices > increase costs, regulations,

    All these measures require further taxpayer subsidies so that more and more people can afford rent/prices

    It continues untill we reach maximum pain moment in a crash/recession. The wealth of a boom is squandered maximising the damage in a bust

    Economic Suicide



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,873 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The man on the US$ salary might be more effective in solving our housing crisis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,873 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Again the HSE is a dysfuntional taxpayer moneypit just like housing.

    They tried to have an automated payroll system, one that every other organisation can get off the shelf. Hse broke the computers trying to computerise a basic function.

    Automating dysfunction is not an easy process, most approach this by fixing the dysfunction and then automating. You might actually find the automation pre exists for the function you wish to automate

    RTE also abandoned an IT project last week that was funded from the sale of the land in Donnybrook, another 3,500,000 wasted in what many companies use an off the shelf package

    Notable that the recent public service pay agreement had safeguards written in that AI would not replace existing jobs, public service is struggling with I.T revolution nevermind the AI one



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭pearcider


    What’s going on? We are near the top of the market cycle where all rationality has gone out the window. You can’t say you weren’t warned.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,570 ✭✭✭DataDude


    The initial ‘article’ (that word feels generous for ‘the ditch’) linked was clearly a hatchet job on some random fella cause they’re was outrage about a potential salary he might get for a job. It was gutter content for clicks.

    I don’t particularly have a strong view on the rest of your comment, but what I don’t get it is:

    You clearly think the current system is broken. Someone is proposing an alternative. You are saying it will just add dysfucntion. Why? Again, I don’t have a view on the proposed new role but some people are just negative as a default and are therefore unable to provide balanced/useful input.

    Not happy with status quo but will attack any new ideas before they are implemented. As was said by Hometruths, it’s all gotten too political. Not only do the opposition want housing to get worse. They need it to. It’s their silver bullet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,124 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    Economist Dan O Brien has the nerve to imply that inward migration is contributing to the housing crisis. Surely he'll be carted off by the Goverment after writing this?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,124 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    The consensus now is that global growth is going to slow and layoffs are coming. This usually means to expect the opposite, the outcome here is that Trump walks back tariffs, oil prices fall alot further helping consumer spending, big tax cuts in US juices US economy which Ireland is heavily dependent on and AI juices tech margins even more meaning more CT income and to top it all of Fed listens to Trump and cuts rates. Global economy suprise to upside meaning house prices to infinity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭pearcider


    I presume you’re taking the mick. Oil prices are disturbingly low when measured against gold. 50 barrels of oil for one ounce of gold has only happened a handful of times in history and all of them just before financial crises.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 268 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    The Orange Man ironically might be the saviour for the whole farcical waste of public money and efforts by successive governments to squander precious corporate taxes on actively aiming to increase house prices perpetually. 

    The Business Post article today for instance highlights a rather inconvenient truth for modern Ireland; the “boom” of the last ten years has been wasted and this corporate tax has been ill-gotten, purely based on a few accounting tricks which can very easily be done again - especially if Trump offers incentives / punishments for these US corporates to declare / move more profits back onshore to the US. Then it will be a case of the government’s absolutely, unfathomably astronomical public spending increase no longer being sustainable and all the property market money trees they have planted start to rot and die. Then people will blame Trump and anything else except the politicians that concocted Help-the-Brickie, HAP and any other scheme which funnels public money in to the private housing sector, with limited impact on getting new homes built but a mega impact on inflating house prices and rents.

    Bring on the Orange Man’s “America First” policies in order to bring down the curtain on the criminal mismanagement of the housing sector by FF/FG. 



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,124 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    The timing is important though, the yield curve has also inverted again. How many calls for recessions have we had with all these indicators. Anyway my view is that we're in a phase of weakening economic growth, and this slowdown is finally going to catch up with multinational earnings. We'll see this soon. bad news for Ireland, given how reliant we are on those firms—this means reduced investment, hiring freezes, and then job cuts. The cracks are already starting to show.

    On top of that, tech remains heavily overstaffed. AI is accelerating fast and will make a significant chunk of roles obsolete far sooner than most expect.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,040 ✭✭✭pearcider


    100%. You just know that when the government is appointing a “housing czar”, that we are near the top of the market. Also an article every day now in the papers about how 1 in 3 Irish people now millionaires, Irish people bidding for property in (insert country here) etc. 2005 all over.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,320 ✭✭✭cute geoge


    Imo property could double in price again in the next 6-7 years .

    At the moment a s/h houses is making roughly the same price as the peak prices if bulit in 2007 but you have to consider the cost to build the house could have rose 50% in price in the meantime with inflation.

    I am in the market for btl ,i think prices after jumped considerbly in 6 months .Supply is not there with even less new builds forecast .Unless a worldwide recession kicks off with a major downturn prices are only going one way for the foreseeable



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,665 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Such opposing views is exactly what makes a market in other asset classes, and enables price discovery.

    I don't think the normal fundamentals are all that is influencing the price of Irish property though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,873 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Be careful in believing that Trump/Musk (pump and dump merchants) are the Messiah for financial prudence



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 268 ✭✭SpoonyMcSpoon


    The opposite - they will introduce some black and white measures to onshore those US profits/intellectual property, which will result in a short, sharp shock to the Irish corporate tax hit and all of a sudden the government is scrambling to find the funds for its housing market magic money trees, with big cutbacks needing to be made on luxury areas such as help-to-buy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,595 ✭✭✭tigger123


    I find this whole Housing Tsar thing a bit bonkers to be honest, and I find it a bit desperate on the part of the Government.

    I'm really struggling to see what this person could do that the Minister, Cabinet and statotory powers are unable to. That is unless they were to indtroduce new powers for the Tsar, supported by legislation (but that hasnt been mentioned anywhere).

    It's kind of insane that this is where we're at with it; a big brew ha ha about an appointment that would be completly ineffective. That's the limit of the imagination to solve this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,291 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Its the same reason the government now spends a fortune every year on outside consultancy (Accenture etc) in lots of areas that historically were always handled in-house - it allows them, and senior civil servants, to avoid responsibility for decision making.

    Which in theory makes its harder to be found at fault for anything that goes wrong, or to land on the wrong side of the opinions of the electorate if they change.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,873 ✭✭✭Villa05


    If its the messenger rather than the message that's your issue. Here is an alternative view from centre right commentators (last 8 mins)

    Agree that politics need to removed from housing This potential appointment does nothing to remove politics from housing.

    Your views on negative input echo a bertie rant from the noughties. I have suggested multiple lower cost options to the current system. Basic logical rational ideas that significantly cut costs, but again nothing will be done unless it increases price



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,665 ✭✭✭hometruths


    This is exactly why the housing tsar was a good idea.

    Currently we have policies set by Ministers dictated by pure politics that pose no risk of landing on the wrong side of the electorate, but are feck all use in solving the problems.

    Or we can have a fall guy who might actually take the unpopular decisions that will improve the situation and give the government cover from the electorate who want to have the cake and eat it.

    I'd much rather have the fall guy if that is what it takes to make some progress. And I don't really care what he gets paid.

    Unfortunately the position and any authority the job holder might have had has been torpedoed before the office was even established. Thanks to worrying about the opinions of the electorate.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,615 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The "housing tsar" would be no different to a senior civil servant in the department of housing. Except we don't pay senior civil servants 440k

    its a total bs appointment. The minister will still have final say on all proposals, so will still be accountable including in the eyes of the public. The tsar is not good optics, and hardly worth justifying a new housing job purely based on optics either.

    As it stands we have one big report from the housing commission (remember them?) sitting on a shelf in the ministers office and he hasnt actioned any of it.

    A report from an expert advisory group with measures the minister can follow to improve housing in the country - you don't get a better opportunity than that for a "fall guy", and yet he and his predecessor have not actioned the findings in the housing commission report, even though they could do so and be blameless for it ("I was just following the findings of the expert report")



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