India v Pakistan getting worrying (again)

probably Von Der Leyen, Costa & Metsola getting all excited on a zoom call as we speak, working out how many of billions that belongs to the EU / EU citizens to send them in post war rebuilding efforts. Also maybe offering ‘international protection’ for citizens of both countries. Having seen what we did for the Ukrainians there will absolutely be a demand for it from people of that region…

Should be noted that both countries have nuclear weapons.

India had a general election in 2024, Modi's party did suffer a drop in support from 303 to 240 seats losing it's absolute majority (minimum 272 seats). However, it still managed to form a coalition commanding 293 seats and barring a complete collapse in support within the right leaning parties, doesn't face a national election again until 2029.

On the possibility of full scale war. In response to the 2019 terrorist attacks, India responded by striking into Pakistan at Balakot. They destroyed their targets and got out relatively unscathed. Since 2019, Pakistan has inducted new aircraft, new A2A missiles and new SAM systems, all supplied by China.

The new aircraft and A2A missiles, in particular the J10 & the J17 block 3 operate Chinese supplied PL15 missiles. There are 2 versions of that missile, the export PL15E (145km range) which is what Pakistan was initially supplied and the domestic Chinese version (300km range).

There are reports from the past week that China has armed Pakistan with the 300km version directly from PLAAF stocks. Aswell as that, there are also reports that Turkey has made very recent arms deliveries too. Both versions of the missile outrange the Indian R77s and Astra's, and the Chinese domestic version outranges the Rafale's Meteor A2A meaning Indian strike package would be outranged and at risk from Pak air defence.

Indian media & public opinion is screaming for a military response. Some of the reporting and OpEd is very strident. The thing is, unlike in 2019, if the Indian Air Force cross the border, they are very likely to take losses. Losses that India currently can't really afford given the state of their air force procurement and their security situation Vis a Vis China and Pakistan.

Similarly, Pakistan is better placed to fight and defeat an Indian incursion now than it has been in the past. Both as a result of terrible delays in Indian procurement and it's and China's efforts to rearm and give India a 2 front problem. China doesn't need to fight India, it just needs to keep arming Pakistan to make India's defence posture a far more difficult balance.

There are ongoing small arms and artillery fire by both sides across the Kashmiri LOC and hopefully, that's seen by India as a sufficient response. Having been reading a lot of their media though? I do think that escalation will occur, I hope however, that it is enough to make the point India feels it needs without triggering further escalation. If Indian Air Force takes losses? It may well spiral further.

Pakistan would have committed an act of war if they had orchestrated, or at least allow to happen, a terrorist attack on Indian citizens, whether it's in India or in the Indian-ruled part of Kashmir. Do India really think that Pakistan would be that stupid?!

To be honest, they are both as bad as each other in this situation and its impossible to know who to blame. The main difference being Indian PR painting themselves as peace loving when post partition Muslims in the Kashmir region, and others, have faced far more attacks on them from radical hindu nationalists than vice versa, with at best, the Indian government turing a blind eye

Hang on to your hats folks. This could get very serious very quickly.

Sure what could possibly go wrong.

Another one to blame the Brits for anyway.

This wouldn't have happened if Trump was president

Oh wait....

Retaliation in progress?

Lets see if other sources pick up on this

Seems to be escalating very quickly or trying to save face

In fairness there was no India as such before Britain colonised and raped the area and amalgamated circa forty different groupings. I doubt all those outfits got on!

Yeah the Indian story (Pre British & East India Tea Company) is a very complicated one.

Why can't India and Pakistan divide Kashmir between them in a fair manner, like what you do with a cake?