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Donald Trump the Megathread part II - Mod Warning added to OP 10/1/26

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,401 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    This.

    Im fact only 30-35% of Irish pharma exports to to the US (though that proportion may of course be higher for some pharma companies and lower for others), which makes the cost/benefit analysis of moving production to the US even more iffy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,014 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Dow futures are positive but we'll see when China retaliates

    GoFBBHIXwAAYPGZ.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,986 ✭✭✭yagan


    Drugs may be very expensive in the US for end users but that's partly because of the multiple private healthcare companies taking their cut. National drug procurement schemes on behalf of whole nations reduce the cost for their end users significantly, yet for the pharma selling the drug the gate price will be about the same.

    So for many big multinationals a whole bunch of national procurement schemes from all around the world are a lot more stable an income than the US market that's currently heading for a major self induced recession.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 483 ✭✭Will_I_Amnt


    Ive been saying this since January.

    There isn't a shadow of a doubt about it.

    Trumps own assets arent even in a blind trust as they ethically should be. They're in his revocable trust, managed by his sons



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,781 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    The US bond charts are truly ugly this morning, serious trouble is on the horizon. Yesterday's auctions of three year notes had little interest and there is a further auction of ten year notes today and a thirty year note auction tomorrow.

    When there aren't enough external investors buying bonds during auctions the US banks are obliged to step in and support the market. It's completely unsustainable if bond yields surge way beyond historic rates and will result in a banking crisis. I wouldn't be surprised if the bond auctions are deferred.

    It's also looking increasingly likely that investors are having to liquidate their treasury holdings to cover their losses elsewhere. Danger here!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 369 ✭✭tarvis


    Had congress been silenced or is it playing dead?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,517 ✭✭✭SaoPaulo41


    World leaders lining up to ‘kiss my ass’, Donald Trump boasts

    President Donald Trump has boasted that world leaders panicked by his gargantuan global tariffs are “kissing my ass-” in desperate bids to reduce the levies.

    “These countries are calling us up, kissing my ass**” to negotiate deals on his tariffs, which he called “legendary,” Trump said during a speech at the National Republican Congressional Committee Dinner in Washington, D.C. “They are,” he emphasised.

    “They are dying to make a deal.”

    He mocked the tariff-deal supplicants, pretending to be them as he pitifully pleaded in a simpering voice: “Please, Sir, make a deal. I’ll do anything. I’ll do anything, Sir.”

    Mr Trump also bragged that he had the “most successful 100 days in the history of this country,” apparently forgetting the rattling plunges in global stock markets after he announced his tariffs, angry Republican town hall meetings, and a major national protest against his administration just days earlier.

    For many leaders, the White House hasn’t bothered to respond to their phone calls to even schedule talks, Politico reported Tuesday. In addition, Trump officials haven’t yet even indicated what specific concessions they’re seeking.

    None of Mr Trump’s top officials “have a mandate to negotiate,” one foreign diplomat who requested anonymity told Politico.

    “I’m not sure … how receptive” the administration is to “ meet with counterparts. Many of us have already written to them asking for meetings,” said an official from the Philippines. “We are all waiting for the reply,” he added, referring to representatives of several Southeast Asian countries.

    It’s unclear where the Trump administration stands on the tariffs, whose cost will be largely paid by American consumers in the form of higher prices for foreign goods. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CBS News Tuesday that the tariffs are “negotiable but not a negotiating tactic.”

    Mr Trump said that there could be both “permanent tariffs and there could also be negotiations.”

    The tariffs went into effect at 12:01 a.m.today. They included a monstrous 104pc levy on goods from China, which has vowed to fight America “to the end” in a trade war.

    They have shaken a global trading order that has persisted for decades, raised fears of recession and wiped trillions of dollars off the market value of major firms.

    European and U.S. stock futures pointed to more pain ahead, following a grim session for most of Asia. Chinese stocks bucked the trend, however, as state support propped up the ailing market.

    Mr Trump has shrugged off the market rout and offered investors mixed signals about whether the tariffs will remain in the long term, describing them as "permanent" but also boasting that they are pressuring other leaders to ask for negotiations.

    Mary Papenfuss, UK Independent



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,646 ✭✭✭✭Vicxas


    They're terrified to go against the Supreme leader and to a lesser extent their voter base back home



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 369 ✭✭tarvis


    Who will tell the USA its meat is substandard ? Why don’t they get the message when their products are refused in any country it is because they are not up to the standards of 2025?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 28,401 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Partly gutless, partly terrified. There's a Republican majority in both houses, but Republican congressmen are terrified of being primaried if they fail to display proper unquestioning subservient sycophancy to His Orangeness. The entire House of Representatives is up for election every two years so they are in more or less permanent campaign mode.

    The position may change, as I say, if Trump voters become increasing disenchanted with the outcome of the policies they voted for, and look to their congressmen to do something about it. There are straws in the wind, but this hasn't really happened yet.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 483 ✭✭Will_I_Amnt


    That won't continue to be the case if the voter base back home are pissed off if a recession, depression or banking crisis occurs

    So they just wait for it to happen, hoping they don't lose support personally when it does as they'll all go rogue on Trump



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,814 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Should no deal be struck regarding tariffs, especially on China, then it would create one almighty black market for everything made in that country, which is an awful lot of stuff. Lot of money in it, potentially, for the Mexican cartels and Canadian outfits to buy in-demand stuff at wholesale prices (or just steal it, whatever) and then smuggle it into the US at a healthy markup.

    Trump did a lot of scaremongering about the bad things coming across both borders in his election campaign, but he didn't say anything about half-price iPhones.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,761 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    One thing I find strange is that the matter of the US trade deficit hasn't been addressed and handled as an objection:

    I don't even think that the US does have a real trade deficit.

    For instance, foreign investors find the US bond market as well as the US stock market attractive. If they are buying either of these, they are essentially buing a US-american product.

    Foreign investment in US stocks and US bonds add fuel to the US consumer, making in the end the US consumer buying more than the country can produce.

    So, in order to stop that, Trump would need to make the purchase of US stocks and US bonds for foreign investors as unattractive as possible. I also think that Europeans will never find the Chevrolet Silverado or the Ford F150 as an attractive car to buy, simply too big, simply too much fuel consumption, but they will find US stocks and bonds attractive. Ireland is also the biggest customer of Boeing aircraft outside of the US, mainly due to Ryanair and CapAir.

    Tariffs don't do anything here, they only add to inflation and possible economic issues for the US first and foremost.

    So if one adds US stocks and bonds, the US probably has no trade deficit with Europe at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,986 ✭✭✭yagan


    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-06/china-has-already-trade-war-proofed-its-economy

    Good overview of how China is prepared and well positioned to weather Trumps Tariffs.

    Good to see it mention the RCEP which will now doubt accelerate in reducing tariffs in Asia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,357 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    Just glancing at my pension and is down about 9k since the start of April. So half of its growth in 5 years has disappeared. If I was nearing retirement age and in a US citizen, I'd be very angry.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭RickBlaine


    I've seen some posts on social media about Americans who were due to retire this year being told by their financial advisor that they have to postpone their retirement.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,353 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    US and EU trade is balanced when you consider services

    And that's what US should care about - they have a knowledge economy that exports high value services with high margins and use the high wages they get as a result to import goods that take menial human effort to produce that they don't want to do themselves either because of how taxing or dangerous it is (or scarce: coffee, diamonds etc)

    US has seen a huge net gain from global trade - it's just that the current administration willfully or mistakenly misunderstand that. No prizes for guessing which.

    The big winner from all of this to me seems to be Russia for some reason



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 424 ✭✭Iecrawfc


    Does the bond market conditions indicate that interest rates will generally rise or fall? If the bonds are being sold off does that mean there are more available so less interest needed to attract buyers, or more interest to do the same?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 31,241 CMod ✭✭✭✭johnny_ultimate


    Trump's 'saying the quiet part out loud'* overnight comment about countries lining up to 'kiss ass' is the simple, straightforward essence of his trade 'policy'. This is pure power play - an idiot bully punishing anyone who doesn't line up to kiss the ring. All he wants is submission, regardless of the consequences - whether that's tanking the economy, burning alliances or making the US a pariah state. Obviously there's more - not least a desperate attempt to recreate an economy and society that never existed in the version fantasised by its adherents - but I think with Trump the basest, stupidest motivation is often the overriding one.

    *though let's be honest: much of Trump's rise can be attributed to 'saying the quiet part out loud'



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,986 ✭✭✭yagan


    Russia funds its war on oil sales which are currently falling and Russia was already having to sell oil at a discount so I'm curious as to why you think they're benefiting.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,814 ✭✭✭✭briany


    There will be many in-depth analyses of the precarious economic situation that wide-ranging tariffs put the USA in, but economics are really about people at the end of the day and people aren't always rational, reasonable or do what's in their best interests.

    Like, we can be reasonably sure that MAGA will blame Nancy Pelosi, Joe Biden and Barack Obama for any heavy economic fallout that might occur and that fire will be fanned by all the right-wing 'news' networks, plus Facebook and Twitter. The centre people might show up for a big one day protest and then go home. The more left wing people will be doing the 'I told you so' thing and not much more.

    If bad tariff policies were to be the end of Trump, it'd require some kind of fight to get rid of him because he wouldn't go without one. More specifically, the people behind him wouldn't go without one. They know it's their one great opportunity to make the USA into the dictatorship they want.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭RickBlaine


    MSNBC put together clips of some prominent MAGA Youtubers and podcasters expressing annoyance and dismay at Trump's policies. Their listeners are quite gullible and responsive to their opinions. I wonder has Trump finally bitten off more than he can chew with regards to GOP voters. Hitting Americans in their bank account is usually fatal for those in power.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 424 ✭✭Iecrawfc


    He was banging on about clawing back money from the EU for all the raping and pillaging they've done on America, maybe it a precursor to a partial default as it's only money the US is owed anyway



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,954 ✭✭✭circadian


    It will drive interest rates up, lending becomes more expensive when this happens. US government will most likely have to step in to steady the ship if the selloff continues.

    I don't know who's selling off but China and Japan hold large amounts of US bonds and they could start to slowly release those to prop their own currencies.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 37,052 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    That's the thing when he talks about how they have so many European and Japanese cars in the US, but we won't take their cars.

    Yeah, because most American cars are a) too big for European and Japanese roads, cities, parking spaces etc, b) don't meet our emissions restrictions, and c) because they're bigger they have far worse fuel economy.

    Now a lot of the above is due to the amount of driving they have to do in much of America due to worse public transport, cities/towns being further apart and so their cars need greater comfort levels and are bigger. But there's no demand for their cars over here (or in Japan) because they simply don't suit our driving/roads, and also we have an abundance of our own cars which more than meet our needs.

    But no. Trump has to burn down everyone's economy because we're not buying their cars that we likely won't be able to f*cking use anyway. It's supply and demand. There's no supply of US cars required over here, because there's no demand for them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,353 ✭✭✭✭8-10


    In general terms the hit to 'traditional' Western economies is a good thing politically - the more chaos and conflict between allies the better. Economically I wonder if some of the countries hardest hit by tariffs will be more willing to ignore sanctions in order to deal with Russia instead.

    And despite trading more with the US than many countries hit with tariffs, they didn't actually get any applied to themselves!

    So I wonder if reciprocal tariffs from the EU or China could have the same effect and suddenly the US themselves are more willing to deal with Russia again. I think sanctioned individuals have already travelled to the US and met officials in the White House which is pretty wild, but seems like the current administration is much more willing to work with Russia



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,986 ✭✭✭yagan


    Ford don't even make cars for the US market anymore!

    I think Suzuki specifically pulled out of the US because they knew it was futile developing SUVs for just one market when it made more sense to concentrate on being the biggest small car maker in the world and dominate markets with huge growth potential like India.

    US truck makers are also going to lose what international markets they do have in Mexico and Canada as the likes of BYD Shark take over.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,072 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    Why would any country even open negotiations with that imbecile if that's his take on it? Time for more countries to give the wannabe bully a kick in the balls and as hard as possible, **** him.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 839 ✭✭✭poop emoji


    Trump promised to get rid of capital gains tax

    … he got rid of capital gains

    I’m looking forward to him getting rid of income tax … by getting rid of incomes



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,753 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    A Trump appointed judge nixes his move to curtail the freedom of the press over Trump's childish "Gulf of America" nonsense.

    A FEDERAL JUDGE ordered the White House on Tuesday to restore The Associated Press’s full access to cover presidential events, affirming on First Amendment grounds that the US government cannot punish the news organisation for the content of its speech. US District Judge Trevor N McFadden, an appointee of President Donald Trump, ruled that the government cannot retaliate against the AP’s decision not to follow the president’s executive order to rename the Gulf of Mexico.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/court-orders-white-house-to-restore-associated-presss-access-gulf-of-america-dispute-6673055-Apr2025/

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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