Donald Trump the Megathread part II - mod warnings in OP, Updated 18/03/25

I think part of the problem is that for many US investors there's simply nowhere to go. You can see that in how little gold has compared to how soars in a cyclical downturn.

None of the established market behaviour matters at the moment as this crisis is political in origin.

One of the reasons Berkshire is doing ok is that it invested in the likes of byd almost two decades ago. Amazon is doing ok too because it has operations independent of its US store.

Apple is in big trouble unless Trump gives them a tariffs waiver. It's payback time for benefitting from the Huawei ban.

China is built for this kind of standoff. The government has control that Trump only dreams about and they don't have to worry about lobby groups and billionaires complaining about how the trade war is costing them money. But Trump can't be seen to back off. I think he might have put himself in a situation he deserves.

So they using that as excuse to tarrif Penguins

However one can just import via Russia from which US still imports 5x the amount than Ukraine last year

A lot of people are saying that the Trump tariffs are ill-conceived because they will lead to higher prices for consumers in the US.

But that is the point: make foreign imported goods expensive for consumers to encourage local production.

Is it that he seems to have gone too far that people have an issue with?

It would take years and years to build and employ in US and it still be more expensive to end consumers

Same consumers who were moaning about prices of eggs ffs

I think it is noted, even within the US that equivalent US products are not any cheaper, many are apparently dearer even with the tariffs. AND the quality of the US produced product can sometimes be not great either.

Watching a video on this recently with examples - will try dig it out and add it here

EDIT - As promised the video .. worth a look. Even with tariffs these heavy equipment items still cheaper imported from China than US equivalent

Of course they will. Goes without saying.

Israeli media reporting Trump is expected to announce reduction in tariffs on Israel after Nethanyahu meeting. That's the cat out of the bag so. Countries can negotiate the tariffs down.

Are there not a huge number of possible issues with that though?

Local production would take a fair chunk of time and money to setup, you would have to likely pay higher wages (would the local workers even have the skill sets needed?), a lot of the raw materials/parts etc will likely come from outside the US so they will be subject to these huge tariffs. There are also just some things the US cannot produce, at least not in the quantity required, tonnes of examples including things like potash, bananas or coffee, there are plenty of others.

Remind me, what actual problem was the abrupt imposition of these tariffs aimed to solve? Like, was the US economy in a bad way, what with growing employment and higher stock prices? Higher tariffs means health care inequalities will be solved? That crime will be reduced? Inflation slowed?

I think China would be tougher and have more resilience than the US in a trade war. The Chinese people would also be able to endure any hardship much better than the American population.

Americans are addicted to consumerism more than anybody else.

If things keep going this way on Wall Street, I am left wondering would Trump ever step out of Trump Tower on to 5th Avenue in New York, or even go there again?

Training and higher wages for local workers? How could people possibly vote for that?

I was looking at them too but I think they're not going down because there's no mystery about what's happening.

Back in 08 or the pandemic it was uncertainty that drove panic, whereas now no one is in any doubt about what's happening.

This isn't an economic downturn, it's economic vandalism and they know the only solution is to unseat Nero.

1. In a few months it lead to job losses in US and abroad, like night follows day
2. Inflation is going to return and rates increase not decrease as expected that impacts us homeowners already fucked by 1 and no social net
3. Years of pensions payments by average working people in Ireland just went poof in last few months, you might be ok if you are on dole, but remember how angry the working people got at welfare sponges and protected workers after 2008

Think back to 2008 it was months and years before the fallout of Lehman hit us in Ireland, but hit us it did, this is already breaking records going back to 1930s Great Depression

edit: rates as in interest rates, typo