Irish Property Market chat II - read mod note post #1 before posting

spillit67 · 04-04-2025 02:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326275#Comment_123326275

Wow amazing that you have a friends (plural) asking you the same thing.

hometruths · 04-04-2025 02:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326537#Comment_123326537

Yep, I'm a bit hung up on the old Airbnb for sure, but to be honest on I'm more hung up on the widespread twisting the narrative to spin the problem as nothing to see here.

The whole Ronan Lyons 2% of 130k is a classic example of the genre.

Barry_Soweto · 04-04-2025 02:44PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326544#Comment_123326544

Whatsapp groups man, you're probably not familiar with what they are.

spillit67 · 04-04-2025 02:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326547#Comment_123326547

Ah are you getting into the "I know you are but what am I" stuff now? Ronan Lyons is not a household name, he is someone wonks or industry people know. The general narrative on Air BnB is negative. It has influenced government policy to a significant degree.

It's a simple fact on the housing units that came back to the market during a sustained (and unknown) period of tourist shutdown.

What the actual shortage of rental and wider housing units is to be debated. I can read any of the "household" need assessments (with their wild deviation in how many homes are needed) and criticise them based on the assumptions within. That is the problem - these are reported widely by a journalistic corps who do not have the basic interest in trying to understand them so we get the Davy reports with their wild assumptions. But supply denialists are absolute fools who believe in magic dust and a society where the State can click their fingers and reorder things, there is absolutely no doubt that Ireland has a severe shortage of housing stock.

Rocket_GD · 04-04-2025 02:51PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326275#Comment_123326275

I bought only in November and I'm not worried.

No one knows exactly what any of this means, it's all speculation at the moment and we'll have to wait and see how it'll pan out over the next few years.

spillit67 · 04-04-2025 02:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326563#Comment_123326563

I'm sure there were lots of clap emojis at the end for your brilliant calming words.

spillit67 · 04-04-2025 03:02PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326581#Comment_123326581

I think it's telling that the doomers on here have posted vague things and arguments that they don't follow up on with any degree of substance.

There are a lot of people who want to be right about a collapse. Some fetish for something bigger than 2008. It's something I've noticed a lot with people since 2008 - they were often regular consumers of Vincent Browne's panel and NAMAWineLake reader (with a dabble of Zero Hedge).

The truth is that the next collapse will be something we probably don't foresee. If I was to bet, probably a global conflict caused by that moron in Washington with his vibey approach to things. I've no idea though and don't really aspire to be a Morgan Kelly.

timmyntc · 04-04-2025 03:05PM

One way we know there's a rental shortage AND an Airbnb problem is that local authorities are providing emergency accomodation to some people by means of accommodation vouchers, vouchers which are used to pay for.... Airbnbs.

If those airbnbs were available for long term rent at market rents the families may not need emergency accomodation in the first place!

hometruths · 04-04-2025 03:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326577#Comment_123326577

Ah are you getting into the "I know you are but what am I" stuff now? Ronan Lyons is not a household name, he is someone wonks or industry people know. The general narrative on Air BnB is negative. It has influenced government policy to a significant degree.
It's a simple fact on the housing units that came back to the market during a sustained (and unknown) period of tourist shutdown.

It's also a simple fact that when the the airbnbs Lyons is referring to came back to the market, supply doubled in Dublin and that was only a fraction of the total Airbnb stock, probably about 10%.

That's a more revealing simple fact than Lyons quip about 2% of his makey up figure of 130k.

What the actual shortage of rental and wider housing units is to be debated. I can read any of the "household" need assessments (with their wild deviation in how many homes are needed) and criticise them based on the assumptions within. That is the problem - these are reported widely by a journalistic corps who do not have the basic interest in trying to understand them so we get the Davy reports with their wild assumptions.

Totally agree with you on this, but the problem I have with Lyons is he is not some idiot journalist. He understands the data perfectly, is well aware of the misleading spin he is adding, knows that journalists won't try to think for themselves, and it is far easier to quote the respected economist.

My guess is most journalists and commentators are thick and lazy, but Lyons is neither.

I didn't think you were spinning the issue if that's what you meant by the "I know you are, but what am I", I was blaming Lyons for hoodwinking you into perpetuating his myths.

spillit67 · 04-04-2025 03:14PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326643#Comment_123326643

Supply "doubled" from a low base. What an interesting what to frame it as someone who claims to be all about questioning the numbers.

I believe Lyons has weaknesses in his arguments, that doesn't mean he is being nefarious. I think most people have bits of truth when talking about housing and issues around it. The Lyons approach on supply need I believe comes from a position that if all else is equal this is what we need - i.e. we can't force people to move out of underoccupied houses so this is what we need given that.

hometruths · 04-04-2025 03:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326676#Comment_123326676

Supply "doubled" from a low base. What an interesting what to frame it as someone who claims to be all about questioning the numbers.

Yes doubled from a low base. And we agree that the supply increase of Airbnb's was, remember a very small number, but still enough to double the available supply.

The more pertinent % is that the Airbnbs that came back to the market were conservatively about 10% of total Airbnb stock. Airbnbs are a big part reason the rental supply is at such a low base in the first place.

Airbnb is also a big driver of the very high vacancy figures.

If our government was able (and willing) to sign an executive order slapping an overnight 50% tax on all STLs with PP and other vacant properties, they'd break the back of the housing supply shortage with a signature.

hometruths · 04-04-2025 03:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326676#Comment_123326676

The Lyons approach on supply need I believe comes from a position that if all else is equal this is what we need - i.e. we can't force people to move out of underoccupied houses so this is what we need given that.

Not many people know that!

Yes, this is a better understanding than most have about what underpins Lyons figures and assumptions. He is saying what would need if we wanted to live an ideal world, or in his words a "functioning society", no young adults would have to live with their parents, nobody would have to houseshare if they didn't want to, etc etc.

But the "ideal world" context is hidden in the small print and LYons makes no attempt to explain it. His figures and assumptions are interpreted not as the ideal but as what we need as a basic minimum, and we'll be forever f*cked if we don't get, and the situation is getting worse every day, and that's why have scaremongering headlines about deficits of 250k and Ireland having the most dramatic rise in young adults living in the box room etc.

The box room narrative is a good example. Lyons relies on the EU-SILC data for these claims, but fails to highlight this data for Ireland does not only include adults living with their parents it also includes, adults who receive some financial from their parents - eg help with rent, mortgage, college, travel, medical or whatever. It is also skewed by data from COVID lockdowns.

It's not surprising that Ireland has had the most dramatic jump in that context. The idea that Lyons is not aware of this in the data is nuts, but he never mentions it.

The CSO gamely tried to highlight it, but I don't think they got much traction. The papers still push it.

The CSO notes media reports of approximately two in three people aged between 18 and 34 living at home with their parents. This figure is taken from the Eurostat database and is derived from a longitudinal survey (Survey on Income and Living Conditions – SILC). This figure differs from data from Census 2022 which estimates that the proportion of young adults aged 18 to 34 years living with their parents to be 41%.
There are a number of reasons for the differences in these estimates, including:
The SILC survey categorises some younger adults - such as third-level students who are financially supported by their parents - as living with their parents even though they may have moved out of the family home while the Census categorises them as living at their term address.
As SILC is a longitudinal survey, a proportion of the 2022 sample were interviewed in 2020 and/or 2021. The movement of some young adults (students and non-students) back to their family homes during the COVID-19 period is believed to have impacted the replies to this survey and therefore the estimates of the number of young adults who live with their parents.
SILC is a sample survey whereas the total population is enumerated for Census.
Census 2022 figures showed 41% of people aged between 18 and 34 and 33% of people aged between 25 and 29 were enumerated at their parents’ house on Census night 2022. Due to the issues highlighted above relating to the definition of household membership in the SILC survey, Census figures give a better estimate of the number of young adults actually living with their parents while EU-SILC shows the number of young adults financially dependent on their parents.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/in/silc/informationnote-youngadultsaged18to34yearslivingathomewiththeirparents/

Blut2 · 04-04-2025 04:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123326520#Comment_123326520

You claimed first of all that there was no point in targeting AirBNBs, when the data would suggest the opposite - that there are anywhere up to 32,000 units, by Failte Ireland's own count, to target. Or over a year's housing supply.

Then you claimed that actually regardless of that, we shouldn't target AirBNBs, because theres currently an undersupply of hotel accomodation in the state. But the data also very clearly shows that approximately one third of the hotel stock in the country is in use for IPAS, which if returned to the original use would very obviously help significantly to alleviate any shortage.

I'm not really sure of your point beyond that, you've posted 14 fairly lengthy replies in this thread in the last 2 days alone, all seeming to rant without any real awareness of data. It might be time to step back and actually do some reading on the issue.

Villa05 · 05-04-2025 11:19AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123313648#Comment_123313648

This shows the average house prices in Ireland over the last few decades. The 2020s are not included, but we may presume that the average price will be higher

That graph is depressing our greatest economic period in history wasted on pumping up housing costs.

Little or nothing done to develop our own indigenous industry

In Charleville on the former Golden Vale Milk/cheese processing plant. Kerry group are trying to sell the office block across the road having outsourced the administration to Mexico

This is the site that delivered product innovations such as Easi Singles and cheese strings that drove significant growth for decades

The proliferation of a strong dairy industry ensured an engineering support that was instrumental in attracting the pharmaceutical sector to ireland

All that wealth was spent ensuring such workers were handicapped by higher housing costs

cute geoge · 05-04-2025 12:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123328613#Comment_123328613

This country is gone bonkers ,county councils out bidding first time buyers is normalised ,

our elected politicans declaring builders are profiteering and should deliver housing cheaper yet at every chance increase the cost of building with extra levys and regulations

It is just a pity we have not politicans here like Trump who puts the interest of our country before the interest of every one else especially EU policy

ted1 · 05-04-2025 12:21PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123325027#Comment_123325027

no second thoughts here. I’m closing next week. Plan to be there for the next 40 years.

BlueSkyDreams · 05-04-2025 01:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123328714#Comment_123328714

The councils here would argue they are putting the country first, by providing social housing to the population.

It's another example of the impact of housing under-supply; there simply aren't enough new homes being built to meet the overall demand.

The councils have their home buying targets, just as private buyers do.

Everyone is fighting over the limited new housing stock that is available and this competition only serves to push house prices even higher.

SkatesOn · 06-04-2025 05:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123328744#Comment_123328744

Jaysus lads! Talk to someone that went through the last crash.

And watch the markets tomorrow..

Aguce · 06-04-2025 05:32PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123332328#Comment_123332328

Please tell more

Barry_Soweto · 06-04-2025 08:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123332328#Comment_123332328

Yeah everyone who's bought recently or is buying now is like "price doesn't matter, I'll be there 40 years".

Clearly these people don't remember the celtic tiger.

When the market goes bad it feels like it will never be good again.

Just look at the stock market right now. The market has historically always reached new heights. Yet ask someone if they'd lump 20k into the S&P500 right now and they won't because the market has lost 10% in the last 2 days.

ted1 · 06-04-2025 08:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123332778#Comment_123332778

some of do remember it. Some of us did very well buying up properties in 2012 and sold them in the last 14 months.

I’ve no issue buying a family home in south Dublin in 2025.

ted1 · 06-04-2025 08:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123332328#Comment_123332328

So where did you buy a property during the Celtic tiger. ?

Bass Reeves · 06-04-2025 09:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/123332328#Comment_123332328

Ask a couple that did not buy whete one lost there job and could not get a job and spend The next 10+ years renting. There was a reason houses were cheap, nobody coukd get a loan.