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Donald Trump the Megathread part II - Mod Warning added to OP 10/1/26

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,431 ✭✭✭Genghis


    The figures are true, I think the point is the formula is a blunt measure of trade deficit, it's not as Trump presented, the tariff each country charges.

    It would be like you looking at all of your income last month, then all your expenditure and only using those two things to compute the tax you paid. Completely erroneous calculation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,757 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    The real risk for rest of world is if the tariffs cause US inflation to rocket and devalue their currency. Then it might well be cheaper for companies to onshore manufacturing if US labour prices decrease from inflation.

    I can't see the FED allowing it to happen but with the way US politics is right now nothing would surprise me



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,496 ✭✭✭Large bottle small glass


    From the Financial Times

    "The formula the US used, although the White House explanation was dressed up in formal language of economics modelling, is in fact incredibly simple and will be regarded as bizarre by economists. It assumes that deficits entirely reflect trade policy — something no serious economist accepts — and divides the 2024 US goods deficit for each country by that country’s exports. Dividing that number by two generates the so-called “reciprocal tariff”, except that even countries with which the US runs a surplus get a 10 per cent “baseline tariff”.The White House also said that the “reciprocal” US tariff could be reduced by the country taking trade or security actions to align itself with the US, meaning the number is to be used to coerce foreign governments into doing whatever Trump feels like."



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 996 ✭✭✭Detritus70


    Many Americans seem to say "what does this truck/SUV/sports/luxury vehicle cost? Ah nevermind, I'll take two, one for me, one for the wife".
    And then they'll pay 70, 100, 150, ah who cares $$$ for it without blinking or thinking, or they'll just finance it. When one sees the massive, idiotic, bloated tanks they drive over there, cost is not an issue for many Americans. As long as it gets 5 kids per mile. Just can't seem to see those dang things with that 6 foot high bonnet. They'll just work more hours, go into more debt and worry about it later. And the ones who can't afford it, screw them anyway. They'll just finance it, default and try to avoid the repo man as best as they can.
    They may grumble a bit when prices go up AGAIN, but hey, that's capitalism. No-one knows how it works and there's no point complaining, since the government can't do anything anyway, right? You don't want to look like a pauper in front of the neighbours and the HOA has been giving you the stink eye about that 5 year old eyesore bringing down property prices in your neighbourhood and your golf buddies are laughing at you behind your back, so you better make it happen! You want that promotion, don't you? And don't forget to vote republican, they'll look after you, don't worry.

    So, people will still buy those shiny, expensive German cars, because price is not the top consideration when buying one of those. BMW, Mercedes, etc… are gonna be fine. And the repo business will experience a Renaissance like never before.

    Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,429 ✭✭✭Glaceon


    External Revenue Service… they have to make up the shortfall from all of those billionaire tax cuts!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,612 ✭✭✭twinytwo


    Align with the US on security is comical considering the games they are playing with Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,764 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    At least the price of eggs is down for them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 30,973 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    Can we assume that there will now be a log-jam of goods trying to get into the US but held up by the lack of bodies to process the paperwork to calculate the tariffs on goods going into the country?



  • Site Banned Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Make Americans Poor Again *

    *worked out great next door with similar Brexit nonsense and flatlined their economy



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 30,973 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    The $800 minimum loophole has been closed for China but whether it has been closed for everyone else is not clear.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 483 ✭✭Will_I_Amnt


    What's irritating me is the condescending, even passive aggressive way they bat questions away as if they were only joking.

    They're absolutely not. Trump was already "Joking" about a 3rd term when he was in his first term.

    To my mind, the only way they can do it, short of an outright coup, is if they find a way to suspend the constitution by declaring martial law during an extreme national emergency like war/rebellion, or widespread chaos - Meaning Trump will have to create the environment where such chaos would occur. They might argue that the president's inherent powers as Commander-in-Chief or their duty to "preserve, protect, and defend" the Constitution allow them to suspend it temporarily to "save" the nation.

    If that's the plan - they cant exactly tell people about it now without negating their ability to achieve it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,072 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    Hopefully the "reciprocal" tariffs the US starts getting hit with today are brutal. The American idea of having any right to bully the world needs a serious reality check starting today. No fake outs, no "we'll delay it to x date" - hit them as hard as possible in the nose and let this **** head come crawling on his hands and knees for reprieves.



  • Site Banned Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    I thought he rolled back on that fairly promptly? Hard to keep track of all the uncertainty

    hopefully they are razor sharp targeted at companies and industries with majority presence in red districts and anyone even remote connected to Trump and his Admin

    Eg: +1000% on Tesla only and so on



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 30,973 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    I think this is the second attempt, he did it previously then undid it as customs could not keep up with the paperwork. Temu and Shein trade increased massively so he is trying again (has he employed more customs officers?) effective May 2nd. It may only apply to China though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,519 ✭✭✭spakman


    I stand corrected!

    I knew jaguar Land rover would be hit, but didn't think it would be close to their main export to US!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 37,047 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    There is another reason why Trump needs to make it seem like he's going to somehow go for a third term, and it comes back to the current tariffs issue; Trump's tariff plan is his way of trying to make manufacturers invest in and come to the US, but there are huge investment costs, regulatory issues infrastructure issues with that. The simple fact is that for most countries and companies, they may decide it's best to take the economic hardship caused by Trump for the next 4 years in the hopes that a Dem (or somehow more reasonable GOP) President comes in 2029 and rights the ship.

    Trump threatening to find a way to stay in office for another term could be enough to force some companies and even countries to kowtow to Trump's demands, and find some way to start giving Trump his big win.

    Right now countries and companies are probably just considering that it may be in their best interest to just take a hit for a few years, because all they have to do is outlast Trump.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,450 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    They were asking European countries for eggs but then they'd be tariffed and made more expensive for them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,829 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Saw a social media post last night from a reputable US political blogger who said that the Trump Administration was becoming concerned at EU movements to not purchase defence equipment from America.

    Apparently even Marco Rubio was warning Europe about it. I couldn't believe it, I mean, this is the same administration that made such a song and dance about Europe needing to take care of its own defence, what, just weeks ago.

    I had a quick look and found this from Reuters.

    image.png

    You can add the name Marco Rubio to the list of people who debased themselves at the feet of Trump only to end up looking like a F'ing idiot.

    They are an embarrassment to the offices they hold.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us-officials-object-european-push-buy-weapons-locally-2025-04-02/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Of course they will. They will ride out the nonsense from the White House. To redeploy would take several years and have massive financial impacts.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,612 ✭✭✭twinytwo


    The main thing that should be taken from all this - as if it wasn't already clear to everyone is the complete lack of intelligence in that entire Administration, its actually breath taking at this point. There were at least people during his first time to curtail his nonsense there are none now.

    Also something needs to be done about the tech bros, they wield far too much power.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,023 ✭✭✭dogbert27


    That last part is interesting.

    Is he thinking Denmark will just give him Greenland because of tariffs?!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,450 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    I have a feeling that for many countries, the solution to reducing these tariffs will be massive military orders that will go towards reducing the deficit.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,825 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    There was talk about some US defence companies opening plants in Europe to be able to sell unhindered to Europe. I guess they won't need an export license if the arms are produced within Europe.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 483 ✭✭Will_I_Amnt


    UK auto exports to the US accounts for apploximately 13.6% of their total auto exports - Something like £8 Billion in 2024.

    But mostly high end cars like Jag, Rolls-Royce and Bentley where a 25% increase in import duty wouldn't put off very many people in that spending bracket too much. but there is a smaller quantity of Nissan, Vauxhall and Toyota too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,450 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    I also think many countries will respond not so much with tariffs but with coordinated restricted selling of rare earth materials to the US.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,984 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    You would trust buying military equipment from the US under this administration??



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,072 ✭✭✭DarkJager21


    Laughable. They made a big song and dance about Europe having to protect itself, even made comments very recently about selling them inferior hardware (with the possibility of kill switches being present in it) and now they wonder why nobody wants to buy their defence products 🤣

    The US and their entire administration can get fucked for the next 4 years, should be as isolated as possible from the rest of the world.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,517 ✭✭✭SaoPaulo41


    So what happens now? EU respond with Tariffs then Trump cones back and hits Pharma?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 941 ✭✭✭Baba Yaga


    is all of this shite-stirring donnie is at the last while what he calls "the art of the deal"…? it seems to me he dreamt all this up while he was clogging up one of the presidential shitters in the whitehouse…i see he has islands in the middle of oceans that are only populated by seals/seagulls and penguins on a tariff…

    yo! donnie vonredactedpants,vlad putin,benji netanyahu,vic orban..you sirs are the skidmarks on the jocks of humanity!!!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,450 ✭✭✭sock.rocker*


    No, obviously not. But since the US can't force businesses and consumers around the world to buy more from the US, I think they will try to force the governments to do so. And that really just leaves military spending.



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