Donald Trump the Megathread part II - mod warnings in OP, Updated 18/03/25

Jaguar Land Rover sells about 20-25% of their global output in the US (>100k cars in 2024), and it’s the market with their biggest profit margin. People there are really worried. I’m sure it’s the same in other UK car manufacturers.

Well true in the sense they used some form of maths to get to them, they arent true if you try to call them tariffs when all they are is trade deficits

The value figures are correct - how they have used them to create "tariff" figures is complete nonsense.

They have also ignored how small poor countries like Cambodia - which US companies make stuff in/buy stuff from to provide the US customers the cheap stuff they crave are never going to have trade deficit with the US as they cant afford American products.

He also ignores that the US is the biggest consumer on the planet - of virtually everything and there is a reason why a lot of the manufacturing moved out of the US in the first place.

Trump really is the bottom of the gene pool.

Ahh, Mr. "Art of the Deal" himself…went and applied tariffs to essentially the entire planet and thus used up all of his potential negotiation leverage all at once. Sure he can threaten "more" tariffs, but the impact is essentially the same.

He's gone and essentially Brexit'd the US from the global supply chain, and although it will of course have an impact on everyone, it will also galvanise the rest of the world into the practice of bypassing trading with the US at all. By far, the thickest President in US history, although we already knew that.

Listening to an American economist on with Pat Kenny and she is quietly optimistic for Ireland. Says Trump hasn't got a clue what he is doing basically and doesn't remotely understand global trade - she feels most US multinationals (Intel for example) will remain in Ireland.

The real risk for rest of world is if the tariffs cause US inflation to rocket and devalue their currency. Then it might well be cheaper for companies to onshore manufacturing if US labour prices decrease from inflation.

I can't see the FED allowing it to happen but with the way US politics is right now nothing would surprise me

Many Americans seem to say "what does this truck/SUV/sports/luxury vehicle cost? Ah nevermind, I'll take two, one for me, one for the wife".
And then they'll pay 70, 100, 150, ah who cares $$$ for it without blinking or thinking, or they'll just finance it. When one sees the massive, idiotic, bloated tanks they drive over there, cost is not an issue for many Americans. As long as it gets 5 kids per mile. Just can't seem to see those dang things with that 6 foot high bonnet. They'll just work more hours, go into more debt and worry about it later. And the ones who can't afford it, screw them anyway. They'll just finance it, default and try to avoid the repo man as best as they can.
They may grumble a bit when prices go up AGAIN, but hey, that's capitalism. No-one knows how it works and there's no point complaining, since the government can't do anything anyway, right? You don't want to look like a pauper in front of the neighbours and the HOA has been giving you the stink eye about that 5 year old eyesore bringing down property prices in your neighbourhood and your golf buddies are laughing at you behind your back, so you better make it happen! You want that promotion, don't you? And don't forget to vote republican, they'll look after you, don't worry.

So, people will still buy those shiny, expensive German cars, because price is not the top consideration when buying one of those. BMW, Mercedes, etc… are gonna be fine. And the repo business will experience a Renaissance like never before.

Align with the US on security is comical considering the games they are playing with Ukraine.

Can we assume that there will now be a log-jam of goods trying to get into the US but held up by the lack of bodies to process the paperwork to calculate the tariffs on goods going into the country?

The $800 minimum loophole has been closed for China but whether it has been closed for everyone else is not clear.

Hopefully the "reciprocal" tariffs the US starts getting hit with today are brutal. The American idea of having any right to bully the world needs a serious reality check starting today. No fake outs, no "we'll delay it to x date" - hit them as hard as possible in the nose and let this **** head come crawling on his hands and knees for reprieves.

I think this is the second attempt, he did it previously then undid it as customs could not keep up with the paperwork. Temu and Shein trade increased massively so he is trying again (has he employed more customs officers?) effective May 2nd. It may only apply to China though.

There is another reason why Trump needs to make it seem like he's going to somehow go for a third term, and it comes back to the current tariffs issue; Trump's tariff plan is his way of trying to make manufacturers invest in and come to the US, but there are huge investment costs, regulatory issues infrastructure issues with that. The simple fact is that for most countries and companies, they may decide it's best to take the economic hardship caused by Trump for the next 4 years in the hopes that a Dem (or somehow more reasonable GOP) President comes in 2029 and rights the ship.

Trump threatening to find a way to stay in office for another term could be enough to force some companies and even countries to kowtow to Trump's demands, and find some way to start giving Trump his big win.

Right now countries and companies are probably just considering that it may be in their best interest to just take a hit for a few years, because all they have to do is outlast Trump.

Saw a social media post last night from a reputable US political blogger who said that the Trump Administration was becoming concerned at EU movements to not purchase defence equipment from America.

Apparently even Marco Rubio was warning Europe about it. I couldn't believe it, I mean, this is the same administration that made such a song and dance about Europe needing to take care of its own defence, what, just weeks ago.

I had a quick look and found this from Reuters.

You can add the name Marco Rubio to the list of people who debased themselves at the feet of Trump only to end up looking like a F'ing idiot.

They are an embarrassment to the offices they hold.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-officials-object-european-push-buy-weapons-locally-2025-04-02/