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Donald Trump the Megathread part II - Mod Warning added to OP 10/1/26

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Comments

  • Site Banned Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    There aren’t any articles because there is no long term plan or direction

    They just have a revolutionary burn it all down zeal

    We seen this before with Brexiteers, they were completely stumped when asked for a coherent plan and vision for future

    And we also seen where that led, notice the naming to

    Brexiteers; Independence Day

    MAGA; Liberation Day



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 8,415 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    I disagree. There is substantially less risk for a US pharma company to invest domestically than here currently. The cost of the uncertainty around tariffs far outweighs the tax benefits and other investment deals they can do here. And that remains true even if some staff lose residency and are deported.

    The reality is that it's a cold financial calculation for corporations. Even if a democrat gets in next time and starts to unwind tariffs, business leadership know they are potentially 4 years away from a reversal again.

    That said, once tariffs are established, even democrats won't remove them as offshoring would just happen again.

    The best thing that can occur is a hard crash from tomorrow that forces a rapid reversal - one that so badly burns the republicans, they never even consider it again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,517 ✭✭✭SaoPaulo41




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,222 ✭✭✭greenfield21


    Three main options for tomorrow

    1.Blanket 20% tariffs

    2.Tiered system of three different rates

    3.Country-by-country rates

    One official cited by CNBC said the first option was "less likely than the other two". She also said the 'goal' is country-based tariffs.

    -Pharma, semiconductor and other tariffs would be announce later

    -Canada/Mexico fentanyl tariffs expected to be lifted

    -Secondary tariffs on Venezuela to go into effect

    https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-is-evaluating-three-tariff-proposals-report-20250401/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,010 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    Unlikely they will redirect large amount of investment
    US Population is 340m
    EU Population is 450m
    European Continent Population is 750m

    Only drugs manufactuered and tested in the EU can be sold in the EU

    There is more people in the EU suggesting that, that's is where the money is for Pharma.

    This is gonna hurt the US more than the EU, I think you are right though that they will have to row back on the tarriffs



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,010 ✭✭✭Beta Ray Bill


    I thought that EU GMP meant an on site inspection to manufacturing facilities whenever they wanted? This would predicate being manufactured in the EU right?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,303 ✭✭✭Mefistofelino


    Not necessarily. The EMA could inspect facilities in the US, India, China etc if they are supplying into the EU. Similarly, the FDA can inspect facilities here. In reality, they rely on mutual recognition agreements where each side will recognise inspections / assessments carried out by the other party.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,517 ✭✭✭SaoPaulo41


    If it's 2 or 3 we are well and truely fecked and on our own



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 8,415 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    The American consumer pays a lot more for drugs than europeans



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 18,074 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    They can try and target Ireland but we're part of the EU so it's an attack on the EU market too.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,430 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    No we are not, any attack on any country that is part of the SM is an attack on the SM thats why its called a Single Market and how it works.

    How do people after Brexit and decades of EU membership still not understand how it works?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 8,415 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    Indeed a country level tariff wouldn't work inside the SM. Companies would just move product to a low tariff country and fly to the States from there



  • Site Banned Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    IMG_5762.jpeg

    This coming US recession is gonna make Brexit look like a children’s tea party



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 673 ✭✭✭DrPsychia


    A great article published in the Financial Times today. The author talks about an economic model report co-authored by an economics Professor, and a business associate Professor from Aston University in the UK.
    The authors modeled 6 scenarios resulting from Trumps tariffs.

    Screenshot 2025-04-01 at 17.36.03.png Screenshot 2025-04-01 at 17.36.13.png Screenshot 2025-04-01 at 17.36.30.png Screenshot 2025-04-01 at 17.36.47.png

    Note: for Scenario 5 below, the model predicts Ireland's exports to contract by 7.7%.

    Screenshot 2025-04-01 at 17.36.59.png

    Screenshot 2025-04-01 at 17.38.22.png Screenshot 2025-04-01 at 17.53.46.png

    That's right lads, Make America Great Again, the US economy is going to BOOM!


    I've attached the paper which goes into detail. It's freely available from Aston University.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,417 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    The same was said for BrexIt. The reality, it only hurt the UK.

    This maga $hite is mostly the same type of ideology as Brexiteers and it's more self harming than anything.

    I don't think this is the exact same as Brexit but similar to Brexit I'm happy to be on the EU side of the fight.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,626 ✭✭✭Damien360


    Only if the EU acts as one can we come out of this strong. I can imagine a scenario of a deal of zero tax on BMW and a huge one on pharma into the US. Not exactly one for all and we would be screwed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,517 ✭✭✭SaoPaulo41


    I think what you said ,is exactly what will happen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 996 ✭✭✭Detritus70


    To all the people arguing"don't worry, checks and balances". Do you really think Trump cares? This is straight from the Adolf Hitler playbook. Very obviously and transparently. Only a complete moron would argue "ah sure, she'll be grand" in the face of current events in the US. Yes, it's Facebook, but it would be foolish to ignore the possibility.

    A lot of the article is speculation, but none of it is out of the realm of possibilities.

    Quote from the article:

    This Is Not a Drill: Trump’s Day-One Order Sets the Stage for Martial Law

    By Tony Pentimalli

    On January 20, 2025, while the press focused on the optics of Donald Trump’s indoor inauguration, something far more dangerous was set in motion—off-camera, away from ceremony, and beneath the radar of a public lulled by spectacle.

    Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency at the southern border. But the most alarming part? It gave the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security just 90 days to deliver a joint report on whether he should invoke the Insurrection Act.

    That deadline is April 20.

    https://www.facebook.com/share/p/18PPnZhjh5/

    Fully Automated Luxury Gay Space Communism



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 32,354 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    That said, once tariffs are established, even democrats won't remove them as offshoring would just happen again.

    That is a massive, massive leap. These are unprecedented anti-free trade measures. The US relies on the free flow of goods into the country. The country is likely to go into a recession partly on the back of these punitive and stupid tariffs. It would be the easiest win in the world to remove them on day 1.

    There also won't be anything to offshore in 3.5 years time because nothing that doesn't exist in terms of domestic pharma production will exist in 3.5 years time.

    I don't understand why people operate under the same deluded assumption as Trump that tariffs will cause re-shoring of production. Americans will just end up paying more for viagra and heart meds.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,825 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    So the EU is going to screw Germany, Ireland, Denmark, Italy and a few others in favour of BMW? Germany exports as much pharma to the US as they do vehicles.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 32,354 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Some people simply remain obsessed with the idea that the EU is a malevolent force that will eventually turn on Ireland despite all evidence to the contrary.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,430 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    The EXACT same stupid fear mongering arguments were made during the brexit negotiations by brexiteer morons, that the EU would screw Ireland as we were so small and all they cared about was selling BMWs and Mercs to the UK. None of that happened because if they screw one country then they can screw any country and what is the point of the EU?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,014 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Other countries are moving. Israel has removed all tariffs on US imports. Good for them and they get a big advantage over their traditional European competitor for US investment which is Ireland. Other independent countries will follow like the UK.

    Meanwhile, because we surrendered our sovereignty over trade to the EU, we are going to be stuck in their protectionist morass with French wine makers and Germany car makers getting precedence over the interests of this country.

    I find it stunning that if the US targets exports from Ireland specifically (which they can) that some here appear to believe that

    1. It's OK so long as they jump ship to another EU country (we get screwed because 'EU' but that's ok)
    2. The notion that Germany or France are going to take an extra hit on behalf of a tiny country they already think is a tax haven out of solidarity. Delusional.

    This will end up putting severe strain on the EU because different countries have different economic interests. Our interests and ability to absorb tariffs are not remotely the same as Germany.

    If the EU were to equally retaliate on behalf of a handful of countries we are being thrown under the bus because that damages us most again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,477 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    Yup, the big bad EU is going to pull the rug out, any day now...(since 2016).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,430 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    That brexit bus is due any day now to run us over ehh?



  • Site Banned Posts: 2,753 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    Yada yada regurgitate arguments use during Brexit and proven to be false and worse



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,619 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Ironically, I think you used to (around Brexit time, feels like an eon ago) use increasing globalisation and the restrictions the EU places on our ability to trade goods and services more freely with non members as an argument to leave the EU. Singapore on the Liffey or whatever.

    Now that a new age of economic nationalism and imperialism seems to be dawning, argument is it would still be preferable to head off alone and do our own thing because…well we can be a much better doormat & supplicant to the US or perhaps China once we are not part of any opposing large bloc ourselves!

    Sure it might be possible for individual members incl. Ireland to get a better "deal" off Trump going it alone and prostrating themselves completely - but it would be a deal with the devil I expect. They do not end well.

    I dunno though, maybe the govt. could rock up and tell him + Bannon and the MAGA gang they'll do the necessary amd whip up some nominations to make sure the bould McGregor is free to run in the next Presidential election!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,003 ✭✭✭nachouser


    Someone needs to explain tariffs to Trump in the terms of what price would a Big Mac be if all of the ingredients needed to be imported into the U.S. and each ingredient were subject to 25% tariffs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,750 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    I find it stunning you are trying to peddle an anti EU agenda in the face of all the evidence to the contrary and not even trying to explain how an Ireland outside the EU would be better placed to weather this storm of economic illiteracy from Trump.

    Desperate stuff altogether while somehow trying to pin the blame on the EU, Democrats ... anybody but Trump and his MAGA enablers.

    You arent fooling anyone with this nonsense. You will drop it and run unable to offer any coherent response, a waste of your own time.

    When you cant engage with rebuttals, it is final proof your claims cannot be defended in open debate.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,417 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    I expect they will. Similar to Brexit, the single market will act as a single market.

    It's the key to the single markets survival. It's only as strong as its weakest link.



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