Donald Trump the Megathread part II - mod warnings in OP, Updated 18/03/25

The thing that mitigates against Trumpism being a long term phenomenon is that he is much more likely to crash the US economy than make a success of it. Trump is economically illiterate and barely has a clue what he is doing, bar pulling eye grabbing publicity stunts to please his his millions of disciples.

All drugs sold in the EU must be manufactured in the EU

This is not true, but all drugs supplied into the EU must comply with EU GMP standards etc.

What Trump will do tomorrow will be the largest act of protectionism since the 1930's. It will pretty much end a free trade model upon which Ireland and many other countries have gotten wealthy way beyond their natural economic capabilities like a cheat code.

It looks like the best the government here can do is manage the decline in living standards for Irish people as best it can.

We don't have many levers and because we are part of the EU we face even greater harm as Germany will want retaliation.

Given the nature of our economy we (and other countries) won't want any retaliation at all.

This is what happens when different economies have very different needs in a trade bloc.

We are in a very bad situation really.

I disagree. There is substantially less risk for a US pharma company to invest domestically than here currently. The cost of the uncertainty around tariffs far outweighs the tax benefits and other investment deals they can do here. And that remains true even if some staff lose residency and are deported.

The reality is that it's a cold financial calculation for corporations. Even if a democrat gets in next time and starts to unwind tariffs, business leadership know they are potentially 4 years away from a reversal again.

That said, once tariffs are established, even democrats won't remove them as offshoring would just happen again.

The best thing that can occur is a hard crash from tomorrow that forces a rapid reversal - one that so badly burns the republicans, they never even consider it again.

Three main options for tomorrow

1.Blanket 20% tariffs

2.Tiered system of three different rates

3.Country-by-country rates

One official cited by CNBC said the first option was "less likely than the other two". She also said the 'goal' is country-based tariffs.

-Pharma, semiconductor and other tariffs would be announce later

-Canada/Mexico fentanyl tariffs expected to be lifted

-Secondary tariffs on Venezuela to go into effect

https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-is-evaluating-three-tariff-proposals-report-20250401/

I thought that EU GMP meant an on site inspection to manufacturing facilities whenever they wanted? This would predicate being manufactured in the EU right?

If it's 2 or 3 we are well and truely fecked and on our own

Indeed a country level tariff wouldn't work inside the SM. Companies would just move product to a low tariff country and fly to the States from there

A great article published in the Financial Times today. The author talks about an economic model report co-authored by an economics Professor, and a business associate Professor from Aston University in the UK.
The authors modeled 6 scenarios resulting from Trumps tariffs.

Note: for Scenario 5 below, the model predicts Ireland's exports to contract by 7.7%.

That's right lads, Make America Great Again, the US economy is going to BOOM!

I've attached the paper which goes into detail. It's freely available from Aston University.

Only if the EU acts as one can we come out of this strong. I can imagine a scenario of a deal of zero tax on BMW and a huge one on pharma into the US. Not exactly one for all and we would be screwed.

To all the people arguing"don't worry, checks and balances". Do you really think Trump cares? This is straight from the Adolf Hitler playbook. Very obviously and transparently. Only a complete moron would argue "ah sure, she'll be grand" in the face of current events in the US. Yes, it's Facebook, but it would be foolish to ignore the possibility.

A lot of the article is speculation, but none of it is out of the realm of possibilities.

Quote from the article:

This Is Not a Drill: Trump’s Day-One Order Sets the Stage for Martial Law

By Tony Pentimalli

On January 20, 2025, while the press focused on the optics of Donald Trump’s indoor inauguration, something far more dangerous was set in motion—off-camera, away from ceremony, and beneath the radar of a public lulled by spectacle.

Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency at the southern border. But the most alarming part? It gave the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security just 90 days to deliver a joint report on whether he should invoke the Insurrection Act.

That deadline is April 20.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/18PPnZhjh5/

So the EU is going to screw Germany, Ireland, Denmark, Italy and a few others in favour of BMW? Germany exports as much pharma to the US as they do vehicles.

The EXACT same stupid fear mongering arguments were made during the brexit negotiations by brexiteer morons, that the EU would screw Ireland as we were so small and all they cared about was selling BMWs and Mercs to the UK. None of that happened because if they screw one country then they can screw any country and what is the point of the EU?