Donald Trump the Megathread part II - mod warnings in OP, Updated 18/03/25

Read a theory yesterday that his tanking of the economy could be part of a ploy to let oligarchs capitalize on the price cuts and then when it recovers again they're holding the assets.

Or that his mates are profiting from insider trading with respect to his manipulation of the markets.

Or that neither of these is the case and he just is reacting to it having dropped by pretending its not a big deal and it's all going to be better in the long run.

Who knows for sure. He's controlling a lot right now but I'm not convinced he's fully abreast of what is happening and why.

He has a goal - I’m pretty much convinced of that - I just don’t know what it is - but he’s certainly prepared to allow the American economy to tank - for what purpose? Maybe to drive down wages in the medium term - put more control in the hands of bosses in terms of just how much work can be squeezed out of a human being for as small money as possible?
Also, AI is coming - that’s going to eradicate many jobs and it’s already happening - I think that’s a big factor here too . Where it’s all leading to? I haven’t a clue but not sure anyone does - it’s project 2025 in action but what America will look like after it’s implemented? Probably semi dictatorship no better than many South American countries - link below summarises project 2025 pretty well and he’s ticking a lot of those boxes

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c977njnvq2do.amp

I watched Carney's speech last night. He seems tougher and more direct than Trudeau, along the lines of "If you want a trade war, we'll give you one and we'll win it". Gloves very much off here.

Yeah we had some chess analogies a few pages back -I’m in agreement with what you’re saying/quoting - Trump thinks getting a rook or a bishop is great gas no less a whole collection of pawns but he’s not adhering to the recognised master moves and he doesn’t even have an end game but his opponents (China, Russia) do.

Just thought of something - mad idea #3,426-Trump has mentioned nuclear war a number of times most recently yesterday - it seems that he’s stirring this - I think he wants the threat of nuclear war to exist - possibly as an excuse to allow say China to take over Taiwan - we know he’s essentially allowing Russia to claim much of Ukraine so it makes total sense - if he develops this “fear” and portrays a nuclear war as a real threat, it will help him massively to push through any number of executive orders nationally (he needs a reason to do this just as he mentioned the red herring fentanyl as the reason for international tariffs) as well as help him avoid any “responsibilities” internationally such as protection of countries - giving him all the time in the world to play golf and make billions out of speculation.

I’ve never been a conspiracy theorist but watch his mention of threat of nuclear war / WW3- I think such references will escalate and especially come next election

I closely follow current affairs and financial news

Bloomberg been discussing “maro lago accords” for weeks now, example

the plan it seems is to extend US treasury durations to 100 years

Which is a default by its very definition

There’s a good reason money is flowing out of the US into stable and normal Europe, the risk of whole US economy being tipped into a depression is to great now

I don’t think so, we already had 5% gdp swing in US in three weeks, another 7% and it’s officially depression territory

He knocked the legs from underneath the US defence, energy, AI/chips, cars, farmers, consumer sectors in a few weeks

Added tarrifs on 10x the goods he did with China in trump1 and against US biggest trade partners and supposed allies, not even gonna mention what he done in Europe

And stocks and bond markets now reacting violently

and we still have 4 years to go, once confidence is destroyed it takes a lot to get it back

I moved on from denial to acceptance stage by now

As a sidenote the term "great depression" wasn't a thing until Galbraith published his book by that name in 1955, when the US was on an economic rip and the inland empire of urban expansion on cheap development land created a confident environment that meant the average person primary worry was their kids getting polio or nuclear war.

If more and more lenders eschew holding USD treasuries then the US itself will have to plug the gap with money creation, which is not unusual but starting a tariff war with markets in which to trade goods only undermines the use of monitory stimulation and will lead to long term stagflation.

This turns the USD from a safe haven into a risk, especially if the political interference as Trump proposes can extend the length of existing bonds, effectively a contract default.

On money flowing into Europe, is that true or did you make it up. If money was flowing in you'd expect German bund yields to be falling, yet they rose to their highest levels in 2 years last week.

Carney seems much more direct and blunt than Trudeau. Didn't refer to Trump even once as 'President' last night, kept calling him Trump and was in fighting form (which went down well with his audience too).

The bund yield rise was in response to the new coalitions plan to raise the federal borrowing limit to allow defense investment. It's a adjustment but the confidence is still towards Europe unified by a common threat (exempt Hungary who are not even in the Euro) and away from the USD whose safe haven status is in doubt.

Many just don't believe in government, and that's not a new thing. It's part of their national myth that they became a wealthy country because of frontier self sufficiency. Their loyalty to Israel is as much a maintenance of their own "promise land" national myth.

They wanted a Caesar to bring back a golden era, but got a Nero who'll bankrupt the treasury for vainglorious public distractions.

I'm sure mistrust of Government is a huge factor alright. Still, electing someone that is going to introduce tariffs is definitely going to reignite inflation, discerning people know that. I guess what is interesting is why at this time, did so many people turn to a candidate who is more likely than unlikely to make their own circumstances worse? I know it's early days, but his plans for tariffs are inevitably going to leave people worse off.

You could say Americans don't care about Gaza, Ukraine etc, obviously that's true, but it seems many don't even care about themselves, just wanted someone unconventional even if it made things worse for their own families.

That's just one metric. Equally I could point to yields on US treasuries and these are well down on the start of the year.

It's just not possible to be definitive saying money is moving a certain direction or that they are voting no confidence in the US generally.

It is fair to say that the markets are pricing in a US recession

I don't know if there's been a broad survey of Trump supporters attitudes to tariffs but many seem to believe that it's the exporting countries that pay the tariff, and not the US importer who then passes on the cost to the consumer.

From my brief time working in the US I found that many simply don't know anything about the world, including second generation Irish. That was over thirty years ago and maybe the internet age youngsters are alert to the notion that they're not exceptional, but many of the older generations still think they are.

I have relations whose houses seem split between parents and grandparents (some Irish born) who love Trump, and their kids who abhor him.

This is not even saving money as regards Doge they are sacking park rangers who prevent wildfires and keep parks safe and clean and maintain water quality and stop invasive species .parks will be closed early .forest fires can cost billions . Irs revenue highly trained staff who collect billions in tax's are being sacked they stop complex fraud schemes .doge is run by young people who don't understand how government works .

We will see the results in more first fires and more aircraft disasters .

2024 has been the worst year for fires in America .this is not the time to be reducing federal emergency services

The faa is in a state of chaos as 100s of highly trained. Technical staff are sacked .theres a highly complex system of data collection and flight tracking which is being disrupted .this is a highly dangerous policy that sacks highly trained staff and puts lives at risk

Its likely that this action by doge will put America into recession as millions of people lose their jobs .

America always has had rough areas of low income crime ridden areas .

Hollywood is in decline many tv programs are made in Canada to take advantage of tax breaks .