Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Once Trump and Putin, well Putin really, decide how they are going to carve up Ukraine. I doubt Zelensky will want to continue a war with only a few small European backers. They weren't able to take back territory in 2023 with a far stronger, and more motivated, army than they have now so why continue? Even if Russia has exhausted most of its offense power it will easily be able to hold the ground it has taken.

Why? Ukraine continues to fight for its existence. They won't want it to be all over until they get reasonable terms. Also Russia is running out of money and hardware they may only have a few months left. I wouldn't dismiss the potential supports of a more war focused EU now that they are on their own (Trump )

Don't agree. Even the current US admin. cares about Europeans buying lots of weapons e.g. Poland and other E. European states being praised as some kind of example.

If the US turns to almost allying with Russia and tries to engineer a complete victory for Putin in Ukraine way you are suggesting (i.e. go so far as boost Russia's war economy, and then also prevent/obstruct their own allies from arming Ukraine any longer), that is it for that!

Sure the US may not be reliable any more post election of Trump, but logic of them aiding Russia, or seeming to in effect serve or subordinate themsleves to Putin's goals in Ukraine (Russia seems to gain far more than the US does out of it) doesn't make sense either.

Agree this war has always been a disaster/nightmare for Europe, and the US has mostly either been unaffected by it or actually benefitted, but Russia, their future looks bleak (just like the present!). They haven't even got the resources or capability to do anything with parts of Ukraine they manage to rob post war IMO.

Think It'll be China, maybe other Asian countries coming in and "developing" all that for them afterwards, if they drive away/liquidate/crush the locals fully. There's no Soviet Union times of massive global power and influence coming back for them, that is for sure.

On your predictions about the EU being a "joke" and on "borrowed time", well people (particularly US/UK media in my experience) have been saying it is all doomed to either explode/collapse every time the members get hit by some crisis, since at least the 00s.

First the financial crisis and Eurozone problems. Then I think Covid-19 response was going to do for it. Then invasion of Ukraine (back when Russia was expected to rapidly occupy whole country). Now it is Trump II, and his evil clown show.🤷I think the EU is going to outlast Trump.

@brickster69 "Hesgeth repeated this in his other speech about the need to be realistic about the situation on the battlefield"

This is nonsense. The west needs to decide what is realistic. What is realistic is a function of how much ammunition is sent to Ukraine. The defeat of Russia can be made realistic if the west gets off its ass and makes it so.

Kellog has confirmed that Europe won't be part of the talks.

Interesting take - Europe was apparently to do everything in the event of a deal, but if we aren't part of the talks then we can't do anything. Which hints that the US will take a unliteral role in securing the security of Ukraine in any deal?

Okay but that just contradicts what they said 2 days ago.

As mentioned, it all smacks of people with no plan just winging it whilst trying to keep an autocrat happy.

How exactly is the “carving” up gonna work on the ground in your fantasy world?

putin has got his terrorists caught in a meat grinder with huge casualties every day since the start of his attempt to invade all of Ukraine. The front lines he has tried to establish are draining his empire and his economy is faltering with only Trump and his stooges talking rubbish giving him a glimmer of hope of saving face on what has been a disaster for him and the people trying to live in his terrorist state. What do you mean a few small European backers? The entire EU has committed to support Ukraine and its right to defend its internationally recognised borders and there are other non EU countries with much stronger economies than putin that are also in support of Ukraine and its right to defend itself. You don't seem to have a good grasp of reality.

Trump, Vance , Putin and MANY, MANY others were NEVER in his shoes and given what he has been up against - a much , much bigger adversary, their feet would be much too small for his

Very true and Zelensky will never be allowed to accept peace because it will always be a far worse deal than he could of accepted earlier. In fact i would be very surprised if Russia's 14th of June offer which Zelensky rejected straight away is in the bin now and is a fair bit worse when it is put in front of him.

Nothing useless Europe can do, it's all over…

The United Kingdom has begun supplying Ukraine with the Gravehawk, a newly developed air defense system designed to integrate Soviet-era missiles into a modern, ground-based platform that is disguised as a common shipping container.

According to the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD), two Gravehawk units have already been shipped to Ukraine and are in active use, with 15 more scheduled for delivery throughout the year.

See the container?

The beauty of this system is it use R-73 missiles, which Ukraine actually manufactures.

I'd imagine high level talks are happening across Europe right now on mass cash injections to accelerate production of SAM defence systems like the critical SAMP/T, which currently takes just under 2 years to make.

Well the first part of any deal is same as it has always been since the start. Just the reality on the battlefield has changed and must now be taken into account. So -

No Nato

Basic human rights for all Russian speakers in Ukraine

Demilitarization and denazification

Good. Hopefully Europe can show a united front against Putin's Orange puppet and take a stronger united position on backing Ukraine to push Putin's savages out of Ukrainian territory. The US is compromised and will remain unreliable until they sort out their own internal affairs. Even if Trump was to shuffle off this mortal coil in the morning; the US is just going through too much internal turmoil to be a trustworthy partner to anyone right now.

No, at the start the US was fully behind Ukraine. And Putin never offered a stop to his invasion. So it was completely different.

Now everything has changed, we have a Putin friendly president back in power, it's possible a deal is on the table.

Putin can make insane demands, and if Ukraine rejects them, he knows Trump will very likely blame Ukraine. That's the formula here unfortunately - it's why Putin's supporters are so excited and energetic about this.

Well, now. Whodathunkit? France/Macron being the first one out of the European stable to knocking heads together and (maybe) start organising some serious resistance. Wasn't I only speculating along those lines this morning …

Worth remembering that Macron was also the one EU leader that tried to talk sense into Putin back in '22 (and got a lot of stick for it, at the time). I'd hazard a guess he got the measure of things back then, during those discussions, and has been war-gaming possible scenarios ever since.

It'll be interesting to see if Ukraine is officially represented there - especially as it seems nobody from Ukraine has been invited to the Putin-Trump peace-and-love-fest in Saudi.

Orban saying similar to what I've been saying

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7cuWHna1lsa1NycTUv1Gw9?si=kkdIFDl4Qw-jY5rhUtNDFg

Isolate. Don't get involved.

I went further, diplomacy, humanitarian aide, help civilians. The tide seems to be turning.