Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Yah as predicted the usual, mask slipping, Putin talking points, Mearsheimer incoming etc. This is why the bingo card was mentioned, but it's fun to reply.

Putin expected to take Ukraine in days/weeks. Thankfully Ukraine, a much weaker military force in terms of numbers, not only held them off but pushed them back

Extraordinary really, they surprised pretty much every military analyst.

Instead of 100% of the country, Putin has around 20%. It'd probably be less but that's on us for being too scared of Putin's 85 red lines and not supplying enough good kit in time - plus Ukraine have done that with both arms tied behind their back for most of the war.

Posts like the above relish Russia taking more Ukrainian territory to really "stick it" to the evil Europeans (such as us) and provoke Boards posters, it's the usual fare - but you might be right, maybe Russia will grind more territory. It's 3 years in, it's been brutal for Ukraine, it's tough to keep morale up - on the flipside Russia is losing a lot of men and equipment doing so.

They've lost over 3700 tanks, and there isn't a single NATO boot on the ground.

(That one really triggers the "I don't support Putin but" Putin supporters for some reason)

A country with virtually no navy has made the remainder of the once powerful Russian navy cower in port.

On the one side it's still very difficult for Ukraine - on the other side there are serious cracks showing on the Russian military, donkeys, tanks taken from museums, prisoners, Iranian drones

They can't even take their own territory back despite a deadline months ago and a massive build up

Yeah tough situation, Ukraine could still lose more territory, but Russia's resources aren't endless, Ukraine is wearing down their military machine, Russia is running lower on taxi-drivers to throw at the front-line, don't forget that Russia has a GDP the size of Italy's.

On top of that everyone is waiting to see what happens with the randomness that is Trump.

Before that, let's also flag that Russia's actions prove they do not have any fear of an aggressive NATO invasion, as they stripped forces from NATO borders to send to Ukraine.

The Act doesn't mention Ukraine by name, or need to.

In the Act, Russia accepts the right of "Eurasian" states to determine their own security arrangements. That covers Ukraine.
The Act references the text of earlier agreements signed by Russia \ USSR such as the Helsinki Final Act of 1975 which clearly calls that out.

And in the Budapest Agreement, Russia agreed to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and independence. Ukraine is a UN member acknowledged \ accepted by Russia.

So, Russia accepted Ukraine's right to determine its own security arrangements, and in the NATO-Russia Founding Act accepted that NATO could expand to include such countries.

The declarations made by NATO as part of the Founding Act around permanent stationing of bases, forces, nuclear weapons etc demonstrate the clear difference to the Cuba situation, and intended to avoid military escalations as NATO expands.

My summary above based on the below:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/115204.htm

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/one-more-time-its-not-about-nato/

Wow , i remember when Liverpool asked Arsenal what they were smoking over there when they asked about Suarez transfer fee

This poster reminds me of that story

Its just wheeling and dealing. Spooking his stakeholder into a higher price.

After that? Ukraine rendered a rump state that will act as a buffer between themselves and NATO. And NATO taught a lesson they won't forget in a long time.

I've often wondered what a brain fart looks like.

Refreshingly blunt and on-point.

The Russians by themselves won't be here in the near future but Russians + N. Koreans? Russians + Chinese? That's a different story entirely. I've been thinking that as Trump's administration becomes more familiar with European thinking they will get regular doses of reality and may be more sympathetic to Ukraine. It's not the game of Ludo they might think it is.

I think all those photos and videos are all propaganda, you don't take all that land with donkeys and lada's and drunk 55 year old men

The dididn't take all that land with Lada's , donkey's etc.The took it when Russia was at the height of its power back in 2022/3,a position that they are far removed from now,,Putin is scraping the bottom of the barrel in every sense of the world, both militarily and financially.

hard to know if this is good or bad.

Jesus, we're actually at the stage that Russias botched invasion for the next edition of "Greatest military blunders in history" is now a calculated grinding down of Ukraine, a poor country with a small military in 2022, everything is going according to plan.

Nothing whatsoever to do with the Russian military being gutted with rot and corruption, terrible leadership, poor training, and a total inability to show even a vague grasp of combined arms operations.

If Russia was functioning as a country and its military was functioning as its military should have been the conventional war stage would have been over in a few weeks. Even the most optimistic of commentators gave Ukraine zero chance in 2022.

The Eastern Front? The Wehrmacht was ground down a stump after four years of gruelling war while fighting on several fronts, countless millions of dead, and this was all back when the USSR had industrial capability tenfold what Russia has today, not to mention a continuous massive influx of western aid, without which the USSR may not have won.

And nothing from where to Berlin? The German front line only completely collapsed in April 1945 at Seelow. That's literally an hours drive to Berlin.

If you want to make comparisons you are better off picking the First World War, which reflects Russia pace, tactics and force projection in 2025. Or maybe even the Iran-Iraq war if you want that light touch of ineffective modernity.

Russia started this war with an army incomparably bigger and better equiped than Ukraine. There is no valid reason whatsoever for their performance in the first year and for the war war devolving into a WW1 style attritional slog apart from sheer Russian incompetence and decay.

I will end by complimentating you on the heartfelt laugh I got to read that NATO has been taught a lesson. The same NATO that's now even closer to Russia's borders via Finland and hasn't lost a single soldier in battle?

It's also now quite abundantly clear that if NATO were dragged into the conflict directly Russia would be annihilated on the battlefield very quickly, not by mass artillery or mass infantry assaults, but effective air power and precision strikes.

Russia was never even able to gain air superiority at early points despite their airforce on paper dwarfing that of Ukraines.

Then look at the Gulf War in 1991. The Iraqi army was well equipped, they had plenty of reasonably modern AA batteries, and they had a decent airforce, both lasted a few days. They lost thousands of tanks against maybe two dozen for the coalition.

Putin has made a mockery of Russia and destroyed any idea of Russian power, just a very dangerous bully with zero regard for human life willing to inflict misery and destruction.

Lastly I direct you to the Russian-Georgian war of 2008, and how absurdly badly Russia performed in that despite winning because it was a hammer versus a glass nail.

Have a read and you will see nothing whatsoever changed by 2022.

Maybe Tump can swap Alaska for the occupied parts of Ukraine?

Oh man, where to start

When the Russians first took Chernobyl early on in the conflict, hundreds got radiation poisoning because they dug in at the highly radioactive Red Forest. Why? Because there are reports they were using Soviet era maps from 1985. Chernobyl happened in 1986.

Troops have been pictured and visually confirmed to be using WW2 rifles, like the Mosin Nagant, a bolt action from the 1890's

Many reports of drunk soldiers in their 40's and even 50's on the frontlines, mostly conscripts, especially after the mobilization in the 2nd half of 2022

In some isolated cases they've donkeys and mules to bring ammo to the frontline

Yes they have jets, hypersonic missiles, fancy stuff… but this is Russia we're talking about, they also have conscripts, prisoners, taxi-driver soldiers, garbage equipment, they've had to take out literal museum pieces, multiple T54 and T55 tanks (visually confirmed)

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

These are tanks designed in the late forties, fighting in Ukraine in the modern day.

As for their gains - they took a lot of territory in the first few weeks, sheer shock and awe value, rolled in from multiple fronts. They also used vast air superiority.

When the Ukrainians gathered themselves together they pushed them right back, but around 2023 the Russians dug in, a sea of mines, mass fortifications. They are also an artillery army - they don't need elite troops, they grind their way forward with millions of munitions and piles of conscripts.

They throw quantity at everything. The Ukrainians don't have remotely close to that kind of quantity.