Replacing previous thread which has continuing page count issues.
Previous Thread
Previous Original Thread:
Threabanned posters:
brickstser69
slay55
mulbot
Even the MSM reports a serious Russian artillery etc advantage / dearth of Ukrainian shells.
But some people still suppose disproportionate Russian losses.
Presumably because they also believe human wave tactics and other impossible things before breakfast.
The dangers of taking out an annual subscription to ISW, I suppose..
"Sticks and stones will break my bones. But words will never harm me."
Except in Russia where saying anything negative about the military could land you with seven years in prison. The State Duma want to bring in tougher sentencing and sanctions to confiscate property against anyone they see as running down their "army". The State Duma and Putin gets very embarrassed and butthurt by anything negative said about their forces. The new laws are targeted especially against their press and politicians.
Before that, let's also flag that Russia's actions prove they do not have any fear of an aggressive NATO invasion, as they stripped forces from NATO borders to send to Ukraine.
The Act doesn't mention Ukraine by name, or need to.
In the Act, Russia accepts the right of "Eurasian" states to determine their own security arrangements. That covers Ukraine. The Act references the text of earlier agreements signed by Russia \ USSR such as the Helsinki Final Act of 1975 which clearly calls that out.
And in the Budapest Agreement, Russia agreed to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and independence. Ukraine is a UN member acknowledged \ accepted by Russia.
So, Russia accepted Ukraine's right to determine its own security arrangements, and in the NATO-Russia Founding Act accepted that NATO could expand to include such countries.
The declarations made by NATO as part of the Founding Act around permanent stationing of bases, forces, nuclear weapons etc demonstrate the clear difference to the Cuba situation, and intended to avoid military escalations as NATO expands.
My summary above based on the below:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/115204.htm
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/one-more-time-its-not-about-nato/
How would the Russians measure victory then? Another 800,000 dead 😵
What is the purpose of Russia starting this war in your opinion
What part of 'territory isn't a measure of anything' do you not understand?
Who do you think is in better fighting state now?
I looked up the Act - long document so I searched the word Ukraine. No mention of it
Care to supply a reference for your claim from said Act?
Yah as predicted the usual, mask slipping, Putin talking points, Mearsheimer incoming etc. This is why the bingo card was mentioned, but it's fun to reply.
Putin expected to take Ukraine in days/weeks. Thankfully Ukraine, a much weaker military force in terms of numbers, not only held them off but pushed them back
Extraordinary really, they surprised pretty much every military analyst.
Instead of 100% of the country, Putin has around 20%. It'd probably be less but that's on us for being too scared of Putin's 85 red lines and not supplying enough good kit in time - plus Ukraine have done that with both arms tied behind their back for most of the war.
Posts like the above relish Russia taking more Ukrainian territory to really "stick it" to the evil Europeans (such as us) and provoke Boards posters, it's the usual fare - but you might be right, maybe Russia will grind more territory. It's 3 years in, it's been brutal for Ukraine, it's tough to keep morale up - on the flipside Russia is losing a lot of men and equipment doing so.
They've lost over 3700 tanks, and there isn't a single NATO boot on the ground.
(That one really triggers the "I don't support Putin but" Putin supporters for some reason)
A country with virtually no navy has made the remainder of the once powerful Russian navy cower in port.
On the one side it's still very difficult for Ukraine - on the other side there are serious cracks showing on the Russian military, donkeys, tanks taken from museums, prisoners, Iranian drones
They can't even take their own territory back despite a deadline months ago and a massive build up
Yeah tough situation, Ukraine could still lose more territory, but Russia's resources aren't endless, Ukraine is wearing down their military machine, Russia is running lower on taxi-drivers to throw at the front-line, don't forget that Russia has a GDP the size of Italy's.
On top of that everyone is waiting to see what happens with the randomness that is Trump.
Since you just poped into existence and missing large chunks of recent history from programming
Let me remind you that only two years ago or so Russia had double the territory they have now and of course there were less defences
It’s interesting that you don’t identify modern Russia as Nazis they have become and have forgotten what happened to Nazis 1.0 on their way to Moscow
I give you the NATO-Russia Founding Act. Which Russia signed.
That lays down the framework for NATO expansion, including eg Ukraine joining NATO.
Russia \ USSR also signed agreements respecting the rights of countries, including Ukraine, to decide its own security arrangements.
So on multiple levels, the comparison with what happened 50 years is whataboutery, and not even informed whataboutery. It's just the standard response of vatniks pushing Russian propaganda.
Another one who measures success in terms of land obtained rather than ability to resist ground down.
You do know that Ukraine doesn't have prepares defences running all the way back to Poland?
You remember the Eastern front? The Wehrmacht ground down to a stump then nothing from there to Berlin.
NATO thought a lesson, blah, blah, blah…
What a crock of horseshit, another bullshit excuse for the invasion. You and your like come on here with all this crap about, NATO, the west, USA, etc…, when you know full well (or are willfully ignorant to) this is primarily an old fashioned land grab.
Putin's main issues are;
1 - No-one really gives a **** about Russia as a 'power' anymore, and they're global influence is waning more and more, behind the US, China, the EU, and others
and 2 - by Ukraine turning towards the EU, it means Russia's influence and standing is further diminished, in a number of ways
So, as trade and influence over Ukraine in the future isn't on his terms, he's said, "**** it then, i'll take what I want", and when you see the values of minerals in the east of Ukraine (trillions and trillions), it's no surprise he's willing to sacrifice basically everything to get control of them. Looking to the future, whoever controls rare earths and minerals in general, is going to have massive sway, and that's what Putin wants, Russia to have a standing akin to the USSR.
So please, don't waste your time like others on here with the usual bingo card excuses, they've been floated and dismissed innumerable times before.
Putin actually talked about aligning with NATO during the Bush Jr years when Moscow was deputized sheriff in that region in the war against a noun.
Ukraine has every right to ignore what a major power next door might have to say.
I give you the US response to Cubas rights in similar circumstances
Advance is a word in English.
If you look at an animation since the fall of the USSR you will see NATO advance.
NATO is a military allance so from a Russian perspective:
"A military alliance is heading towards us in a strategically sensitive way"
Oh god, here we go again. Is there not a 'We all Hate America' thread that every contrarian can offload all their angst in and save other threads from being derailed.
This is not a thread about US Foreign Policy.
As for NATO 'advancing'… NATO doesn't 'advance'… its a coalition of nations which a country needs to apply to join. Ukraine have/ had every right to make such an application. And did it escape your attention just how much disdain for NATO the US currently has… make up your mind as to who the bogey man is.
And at the end of it all, despite all the losses suffered by Russia, the 'NATO borders' with Russia have already been massively expanded as a direct result of Putin's aggressive approach to foreign policy.
Residents of Kemerovo, Russia begging for help in heating their homes. Coal is now running short and not available to homeowners.
The online begging videos have become a thing in Russia.
Ah we back to Russians drawing fantasy maps
Let’s examine so;
La La land stuff, embarrassing for someone talking about “pragmatism”
Must be a new record for a 'concerned poster' to drop their mask??
Whaaaattt? Russia - 'superpower Russia' - which was on the outskirts of Kiev a few years ago… is to be applauded for 'grinding down' a military many times smaller than itself? Apart from the fact that this is simply shifting the goalposts from talking about sanctions to talking about military strategy, why should record breaking losses of personnel and hardware and WW1 style snails pace advances be held up as a success?
I've no idea where you're coming from or what angle you're pushing.
So you don't know. That's all you had to say.
Ah yes. It's all NATO's fault isn't it?
Those dead civilians had it coming to them didn't they? Because their state wanted to trade with Europe. How dare they!? Surely death is too good for them for having the audacity to not obey their natual masters in Moscow. But no, noo….it's all about business isn't it? It's all about nickels and dimes and not at all about the civilians who got to witness first hand what Russian occupation looks like…or those who still live with the nightmares of Bucha…wondering how close they came to sharing a mass grave with their friends or family.
Believe it or not (and I know you won't, this is more for the sake of the debate at large) wars like this aren't always about those dasterly capitalist military-complex types. They can also be about stopping despicable b*stards from killing innocents. That is what this one is about. It's very rare to have such a clean cut division of moral authority in any war, but here we have one aggressor who wants to destroy their neighbor, steal their land and have their way with whatever people they choose to spare (for now). They invented the flimsy excuse that NATO were the cause of this, but we both know that's all that is. Don't we, comrade?
Treaties with Putin's Russia are completely worthless for sure. That's not to say that it's impossible for a better Russia to emerge later that can behave like adults and understand their responsibilies to the rest of humanity…but in the meantime, they must be forced to stop. That is all they currently understand.
They have all the appearance of an attempting to grind Ukraine/West ability to field a military force down to a stump - at the most favourable loss ratios.
This must be the primary aim of any military adventure.
After that? Ukraine rendered a rump state that will act as a buffer between themselves and NATO. And NATO taught a lesson they won't forget in a long time.
What the actual terms for ending it will be will depend on how badly the West want to lose. Russia appear willing to go the distance - although I doubt occupying the whole of Ukraine is seen as desirable by them.
Maybe the Dnieper?
Good quality writing on the conflict by Big Serge on Substack produced this by way of outcomes
Russia hasn't the manpower for a grinding war in which they cannot but enjoy very favourable loss ratios due to their (accepted by even the MSM) overweight in artillery, air, missile and other strike systems.
Yet Ukraine has the manpower to resist (we can ignore The Guardian's piece of a few days laying the future on the shoulders of Zelensky's Jungend)
This is the height of copium, not to speak of blind hopium.
A view which can only sustain itself by supposing the Russians (for reasons nobody can sensibly explain other than suppose the Russians retarded) engage in human wave assaults they have absolutely no need to engage in.
Meanwhile, the cauldrons continue to be constructed and liquidated
There's hints of early Putin's rise in Trump's America too. His base really do mean it when they want to be great again even if it means dragging everyone else down.
As Britain embraced its post imperial decline it changed the name of War Office to the Ministry of Defense.
The US still thinks war is a tool for economic self interest.
Why do you think that the EU and NATO are beefing up their military's? Just for fun?
Pragmatism means not putting too much weight on treaties. If Russia decides that NATO advancing into the same country that both Napolean and Hitler utilised in their attack, what use 'peace in our time'?
We can argue all day long about the reality of the (ludicrous to me sounding) notion of back to the USSR vs enough-is-enough NATO expansion.
Point is: the West's larger requirement for business will trump the current nose-holding about cheap Russian gas.
The West doesn't actually give a crap about Ukraine. Why should they - other than the value of its resources to corporates, what has Ukraine ever done for us?
Its as if you believe the West has some lofty principles or something.
Europe doesn’t need to get on war footing to outspend Russia
Their economy is only twice larger than Irelands now despite 30x the population and all them resources
Russian are stupid to have forgotten that last time they tried to arms race the decadent west
By their fruits ye shall know them. 800 military bases spanning the world. War whereever they go. There's a darn sight more actual evidence for American imperialism than there is for 'the Russians are coming" to an Eastern european country near you..
Well, nothing about the West's posture indicates that they believe The Guardian' (et al) ad hoc narrative.
War footing anyone?
People keep saying saying there's a market for Russian oil, but are we even sure Russia can actually still pump and transport supply to the market?
A country attacking on donkey's and in Ladas against 21st century evolutionary weapons doesn't exactly sound dynamic.
