Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Lol! Why housing output has stagnated and could actually fall the next year or two...

Housing delivery predicted to stagnate and fall well short of targets...

http://Housing delivery predicted to stagnate and fall well short of targets

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2025/01/30/housing-delivery-forecast-to-stagnate-with-supply-falling-well-short-of-targets-report-warns/

This is hilarious... they lied about the housing figures, but they are re - elected now... that's all that matters...

They then want the young and youngish , to fund the purchase of extreme property prices and fund for the next several decades, many of those living very comfortable retirements, objecting to housing ...

It's interesting reading that article and learning more about the system, I mean I knew 50 or 60k as an average, was fantasy land stuff... but I did expect a slight increase in numbers, but obviously worsening affordability...

It's totally incredible. What a surprise, that politician homeowners, and all of the planners etc, also homeowners, want rising prices... you then have a majority of voters, being homeowners I believe ?

The system is working exactly as intended...

It's a fair observation, but people are saying it because prices rising in the next few years is the most reasonable prediction based on the available evidence. Telling someone to "wait and see" would be telling them to hope for what is the less likely outcome.

My advise is that if you can get something that suits you for a manageable mortgage, then take it. Why sacrifice the present for a future that may not even happen?

Sadly, I think older generations have many flavours of terrible advice to offer :D

Its some dilemma in fairness. The prudent would look at how unsustainable it all is and either wait it out or get out of the country

The history of a 3 decade long dysfunctional property market would suggest that the first home scheme is subprime by the back door and the best option would to extract the maximum from that scheme thereby significantly reducing your housing costs over current rent prices. If the crash happens, play the system and reduce your repayments to the minimum that allows you to keep the utility value of the home. Use the savings to build a lump sum to build a life in a different country

Not advise, just logical thinking in a state that continues to vote for dysfunction in housing. You simply adapt to the dysfuntion

people have been saying that for the last 5 or 6 years and they have been right, prices have just continued to rise, imagine waiting on the price drop that would make waiting the market out the last 5 years worthwhile, its not going to happen.

I dont think perfectly content, but confident that the best choice of the limited options has been made.

You cant vote for perfect, so you choose the least worse option.

We're building 30,000 homes a year and our population is increasing by 100,000 a year. We have an estimated deficit of 200,000 homes already and thats growing every year.

The population growth vs home building maths are very very clear, prices are only going up for the forseeable future.

Anyone waiting for prices to decline will be waiting for a cataclysmic economic event along the lines of 2008, so could be waiting a decade or two or more, nobody knows. And even if such an event occurs they may well lose their job and be unable to get a mortgage then, either.

With the exception of maybe buying in 2006-7 (and even then if you bought in 2006-7 you'd likely have been back in positive equity 10-15 years later at worst), the right time to buy in Ireland for 50 years has been 'as soon as you can'.

Well Ireland is a bit unusual in that we don't even have a fake conservative party like the Tories, and we've yet to produce a fake reform party like Reform UK, La Penn or Mrs. Melon's party over in Italy. Maybe if that happens, people will be more animated, but nothing will really change until international conditions force the state to change.

Id like to see them there another year or so, just let it hammer home, how things are only getting worse… Then maybe the independents etc, will pull the plug. Although they are far more likely to do that, way closer to an election, they can say, "we can no longer stand over this failure with housing" etc… You understand housing is an example. The irish state is master in failure, they can pull the health, infrastructure card, whatever floats your boat…

I voted those wasters back in, over the alternative wasters, because I thought, well at least let them have the big infrastructure projects started, after that, let the place burn if we need a re-set. I didnt expect the reality to be as bad as it turns out, I expected a very small increase in house delivery, which we still might get, but the lies that they put out there regarding completions, that comedy, should be confined to the laughter lounge…

None of us have a clue, nobody does, but I would say to me, its nearly fifty / fifty if the government runs full term. Its one thing making glaciual progress, when you sell that as your way of maintaining power, even if its an awful return versus what they said they would deliver. But for things to be getting worse, is a totally unsustainable position from here…

I didnt expect them to lie about the figures, have they not been in power for years now?! You are defending a worsening of the housing figures, thats fine . You have your opinion, I have mine and let me tell you , from reddit and another site I visit, many there share the same disgust as I do, about the lying and the failure…

Its one thing the affordability getting continually worse, eroding purchasing power, that is a given, its beyond debate… But for the housing completion figures , to be total lies and actually the number we will get V what they say we will. Its untenable. They said recently, we would get was it 40,000 homes last year? In fact, we got 6% less than they year before… Its obscene…

I want them gone, in a year or , once the next pathetic completions figures are released… someone is going to have to seriously treat this housing emergency for some, as an actual priority and no just say one thing and do nothing about it… There is ZERO leadership here and its a serious problem, has been for years. The problem with the Irish taoisigh is, its all just a bit of a laugh and nice pension, prestigious role… Get the chance to travel the world and meet proper leaders…

All of these billions that they have, huge amounts of it, from Irish working people, well, use that to subsidise the construction cost…thats one thing they can do with this obscene amount of money, that they dont know how to waste quick enough

Pre-election I heard interesting analysis from a political correspondent as to why Ireland was one of the only countries in the world where the incumbent government was likely to stay in power.

His view was that ‘housing’ being high on the issues list was an extremely positive indicator for the government because it directly impacts so few voters. At any moment in time a tiny fraction of people are trying to buy a home.

Lots of people put it as their #1 because friends/family are impacted. The fact many peoples number #1 ‘issue’ doesn’t directly impact them is not a reflect the selflessness of the Irish population. It reflects that most people’s lives are pretty good.

When you feel something because it’s impacting on someone else you feel far less visceral about it. Countries where ‘the economy/jobs’ and ‘cost of living’ were by far the dominant issue, the government got hammered. Because if you have no job or you can’t afford to heat your home you think about it 24/7.

In summary. People looking to buy an house overestimate how important housing affordability is to the country as a whole.

Call it ‘alright Jack’ or whatever but it is what it is. Expecting the government to fold because 30k houses were built instead of 33k houses is laughable. 95% of people won’t know or care.

Housing impacts so few voters. It impacts well over half a million, I would say that are live at home adults, being robbed on rent or cant buy.. Possibly up to a million. It massively impacts the quality of life, even if you can afford to buy a home at some rip off rate… Thats scraping the barrel but some of the main issues the housing situation creates…

Here is one big issue, you might vote for SF because you think they may do better on one big issue for you, housing… BUT you may also conclude that they might not be best for the economy overall and hence your job… Rock and hard place

Well Trump could be that catastrophe for Ireland the gobsh1ts in gov have built our daily expenditure on recurring corpo taxes that trump is actively targeting we could be in the mire sooner than we think but if the gov keep the current policy of allowing everyone in without investing in all areas of infrastructure and public services then prices are as you say only going up.