Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed. **Threadbans lifted - see OP**

I’ve no intention of engaging with you- you’ve sprung back on this thread all guns blazing -good luck with that.

I wasn't disputing Bailey being guilty with DNA found. I'm saying by the same standard almost everyone else would be too, if there was a singular source, with a few very limited exceptions, which would require a damn good explanation. If no good explanation was forthcoming, a jury should decide imo.

Did Bailey not ‘walk all over the scene’ on his arrival late that fateful morning?

A rumour that has never been backed up by anything real and is contradicted by the Garda log of arrivals at the scene.

Plus that the photos Bailey was trying to sell to newspapers were from so far away, outside the cordon, there was nothing usable.

Well, I cannot know if it has a basis in fact - (and nor can you) - I did not start the rumour. It is widely reported but I'd like to know who said it first?

If a credible witness insists that Wolney said this in his or her hearing, I'd call it reasonably substantiated. If the allegation can be traced only to the gutter press, that would count as discredited.

Yeah still enough of those out there at that time, even with the car scrap-page scheme in place - but you could certainly start with locals who had one and take it from there - questionnaires issued sortta thing

I would always suggest that the Gardai or at least some of them were involved or had some reason to do so. That's the only answer I would have to your last paragraph.

With all the collusion, coersion of a witness, offering drugs to get close to Bailey, missing pages of a jobsbook, lost evidence, etc… there is always the risk that it would have consequences for any of them, and these consequences could have been grave. ( under normal circumstances in most police forces in western countries) Job loss, suspension, loss of pension maybe, ending up in court, we don't know.

So, why risk all this for no reason and no motive at all? Either the motive was so great or they or some few of them knew they had protection to act the way they did? And it can't all be down to lack of training or general incompetence and disgust for the English.

Regarding Bailey the matter is really rather dry and factual:

There is no evidence that he was at the murder site or that he killed Sophie. There is no clear motive that we can think of. He as many others had no alibi for the night in question, and he felt at some point the need to burn something ( get rid of something for whatever reason ) behind the house he called "the Studio". Other than that, we have nothing.

Knowing Sophie personally, knowing where she lived or when she visited isn't even circumstancial evidence, same as taking walks at night, - if he did or didn't won't establish he's the killer.

It's possible.

One scenario is that the Gardai's quality of work was so poor, they never had any evidence against anybody ( also in this case) and brought in for questioning whomever they thought was the killer, put him under pressure, "made him talk German style", and expected to get a signed confession.

They may have tried that with Bailey but noticed throughout the interrogation that they were starting to bite more and more into reinforced concrete.

Then they tried different methods, all unorthodox and most likely beyond the knowledge of various superiours. Lost evidence and lost pages of job books were possibly down to incompetence, giving drugs to transients as well as coercing Marie Farell possibly down to lack of creativity….

Yes For me, incompetence and bad practices learned from older (but not necessarily experienced) guards is probably the more likely scenario. Protecting others would certainly have come unravelled at this stage and considering multiple Gardai have led this investigation, I think they would have sensed something up.

It’s mad though when you think of it.

Gardai, in the main are good people- I think most of society would agree with that.

Gardai have a good track record of catching murderers, in the main, - even though there are a number of high profile cases unsolved, they tend to have a theory on these and a clear suspect- they just don’t have the evidence, or in some cases even the remains.

We’ve seen a recent development in one of those cases where the focus has shifted onto two people - that’s many years after other theories were widely explored

Why then have they focused on Bailey, for so long, without any other theory emerging?

Because there’s no definitive evidence elsewhere , albeit there might have been if Gardai did their job on day 1, it seems that Gardai are still willing to leave Bailey in the frame- it’s convenient for them - why stand down Bailey when there’s no alternative suspect?

That’s my thinking at this stage - until an alternative viable suspect is found, Bailey remains chief suspect. I don’t think that’s right.

Who were the other nominated suspects?

I think Bailey brought it on by himself, and the incompetence of the Gardai basically led them to him. His personality wasn't liked, he beat up his partner, and he was English. Finbarr Helens had a brush with the law, Alfie as well, same did Bolger so they would theoretically also fit the same picture as Bailey, all except a credible motive. None of them had an alibi as well.

I think that the murder and the murderer had some connection to France and knew things about Sophie from France. Whether personal knowledge or acting on instructions is unclear. This would by my personal opinion only, - not having any evidence. The reasons are:

Sophie only spent maybe 3 weeks in any given year at her cottage. If she didn't get along with somebody or refused somebody's sexual advances, it's hardly a motive for murder, same goes for an argument about the gates being open or closed. Why would somebody argue with a neighbour about something or anything if she would only be here for a short period of time? Any local murderer didn't have to gain anything by killing Sophie who is rarely in Ireland anyway, - that is unless she really seen something like drug related, drug trafficking in the area and she became a risk and a threat for characters like Alfie and Bolger.

It's far more likely - at least to me - that somebody or something relating to France is the motive. France simply because that's where she lived, worked, where husband and son were, where family and relatives were, and where she spent the overwhelming majority of her life. Some previous lover, or her ex husband is involved, maybe even something unknown to us at work, as they or this would all constitute a far longer disagreement, build up of negative thoughts of emotions, disagreements etc…. that one would finally consider murdering her.

All this said, speculation on my part.

Bailey was number 10 on a list of over 50.

I think the list was compiled in the order the Gardai came up with names, so there were 9 suspects on the list by the 27th Jan.

The first name on the list was local odd bod Gerry Sweeney, he died a few years ago after a long illness. He lived just over half a mile from Sophie’s, across the fields on an old route he used to visit Alfie. He was spoken to by a couple of Gardai on some pretext, stolen goods I believe. They said he would be incapable of the murder. But he was in his 40’s then and capable of stealing car batteries and tyres, he even carried a gas cylinder over to Alfie to fill and carried the full one back home. He was on the road at 7:30 on Mon 27th looking for a lift, the neighbour that picked him up gave a statement to the Gardai but it ‘got lost’.
No idea who else was on the list.

So did they just keep adding names to a list until it got above 50, and of that 50 there were only 9 who were classed as suspects by 27th January? Bailey seemed to be chief suspect within a matter of days, I wonder when they stopped adding names.

A dispute with a temporarily deranged neighbour? A cannabis induced psychotic episode, first and only time.

What I meant was, you don't believe it was a dispute with a neighbour, but more like a temporarily deranged person.

Why couldn't the neighbour become temporarily deranged when the dispute escalated? It doesn't have to be one or the other.