⚠️ Storm Éowyn - Fri 24.01.25 (**Please read Mod Instruction in OP.**)

There's going to be major damage from this, at least part of the country, that will stretch or overwhelm ESB, Councils, Emergency services. The fact that there's apparently no central governance will wake them up on Friday afternoon. People could be without power for weeks, no internet for weeks etc.

You'll be Just Eating whatever you have in the cupboard for a few days...

06Z Arome shows sustained winds reaching 135 km/h with 145 km/h sustained winds just off shore, which is as high as the scale goes on these graphics. Cat 1 hurricane is between 119 and 154 km/h, so if this happened then it would feel like a Cat 1 hurricane on those shores. But technically true hurricanes cannot exist at these latitudes because they need to have tropical characteristics to be hurricanes.

Met E for my location has gusts of 130 for about four hours. I can tell you, as a usually sheltered location, damage is certain. I see Arpege has 150kmh for me, and I cannot imagine what that'll do.

I very rarely post on boards anymore , But always browse the weather section on severe events.

There is some incredibly intelligent people on here who give a proper representation of the models rather than relying on MET Eireann.

Just want to say thank you to those!!

And to those asking about bins and buses, please just use common sense..... It may not be as bad in your area but there will be some poor feckers tomorrow dealing with property, farm or tree damage rather than worrying about their overflowing bin or that Penny's isn't open.

11am TAF's

Top Gusts

Shannon: 85kts (157km/h)

Knock: 85kts (157km/h)

Dublin: 70kts (130km/h)

Belfast: 70kts (130km/h)

Cork: 65kts (120km/h)

Never seen 85kts in an Irish TAF.

Wind should have died down by then. Are you providing emergency accommodation tonight for homeless not in hostels?

We will rebuild. No need to be afraid.

Stay indoors and marvel at mother nature's power.

MT, I have noticed a trend recently that at the nowcast stage wind extremes have tended to be at the lower end of the guidance rather than hitting the predicted maximums from the models. I also don't recall an incidence recently where we should have had a red warning based on recorded winds but only had Orange. And also that they have become much better at predicting path and arrival time on these events. Is there a case that potentially models are prioritising timing and location accuracy over magnitude accuracy? Eg. They dont mind predicting a 160kph and actually ending on 140kph if it means they are more accurate on timing and location, rather than successfully predicting a 140kph event but being off on timing and / or location. In a complex system with multiple variables its impossible to have the same level of accuracy on all outputs.

And I say this acknowledging that any downgrade on this will still be a dangerous storm for much of the country with red impacts across wide areas

Tonight

Tonight, Storm Eowyn will bring severe or extreme southeasterly to southwesterly winds, with destructive and damaging gusts. Violent storm force winds will occur for a time near southwest and west coasts. Impacts will be severe with power outages and significant disruption due to falling trees and structural damage. A spell of heavy rain will also track across the country with localised flooding, especially for southern counties. There will also be falls of sleet and snow for a time in Connacht and Ulster. Lowest temperatures of 0 to 4 degrees before turning milder from the south.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow, Friday, Storm Eowyn will bring severe or extreme southwest to west winds, with destructive and damaging gusts. Violent storm force winds will occur for a time near west and northwest coasts. Impacts will be severe with power outages and significant disruption due to falling trees and structural damage. There will be scattered squally showers with longer spells of rain across the north of the country. Highest temperatures of 6 to 9 degrees but feeling much colder due to wind-chill. The winds will ease from the south through the afternoon and evening.

Gale Warning

Southeast winds, veering west will increase to force 10 or force 11 through tonight (Thursday) and for tomorrow (Friday) on all Irish coastal waters. 2. Southwest to west winds will reach force 12 at times later tonight (Thursday) and during tomorrow (Friday) on Irish coastal waters from Valentia to Erris Head to Fair Head.

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/marine-inland-lakes/sea-area-forecast

Mean wind speeds as predicted by the Harmonie model tomorrow morning. Cat 1 hurricane strength winds encroaching along the Clare coastline (74+ mph).

Can an actual hurricane (tropical cyclone) reach these shores? The chances are extremely remote due to the colder ocean temperatures here. Then again debate continues in some quarters as to when Debbie transitioned into a mid-latitude depression before it hit Ireland in September 1961. Some sources think it was still a tropical cyclone when it hit Ireland.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane_blog/55th-anniversary-of-hurricane-debbie-striking-ireland/

Wind coming from a SE to SW direction, mainly SW and then W as the day goes on